49ers vs. Broncos Picks, Predictions NFL Week 3: Will Russ continue to haunt the Niners?
An arch nemesis awaits the San Francisco 49ers in primetime this Sunday. Kyle Shanahan’s Niners are 2-8 against Russell Wilson throughout his tenure as head coach. Wilson’s in new surroundings with a Denver Broncos team that has flattered to deceive this season.
Since entering the league in 2012, Russell Wilson has been a constant thorn in San Francisco’s side. The quarterback has a 16-4 record against the 49ers, including sweeps in the past two seasons with the Seattle Seahawks. There will have been a sigh of relief from the Niners when Wilson left the NFC West last March, after a decade of domination. But there’s no respite for the Red and Gold, with a trip to Mile High coming early on their schedule. However, Denver has struggled in the red zone in its first two weeks, failing to score a touchdown in each of its six trips inside the 20. The Broncos offense face their strongest test yet this season against a San Francisco defense that has only allowed opponents into the red zone on three occasions.
And, to add more intrigue, Jimmy Garoppolo returns as the Niners’ starter, following the season-ending injury to young quarterback, Trey Lance.
Here are our top picks for 49ers Broncos NFL for Week 3 (odds via PointsBet; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
49ers vs. Broncos Game Info
Date: Sunday, Sept. 25, 8:20 p.m. ET
TV: NBC
Location: Empower Field at Mile High, Denver, CO
Weather: 73 degrees, 1% chance of precipitation, 7-mph winds
49ers vs. Broncos Odds Analysis
The Broncos were -3 home favorites at the start of the week, but that line’s moved to favor the Niners at -1.5. This will be because of Jimmy Garoppolo. We know what we’re getting with Jimmy, whereas there was an uncertainty with Trey Lance. 91% of the money on this game is with the 49ers.
As the public’s faith in head coach Nathaniel Hackett and Russell Wilson has dropped, so too has the Total. It opened at 46 and has appeared to settle at 43.5 with most sportsbooks. PointsBet has it as high as 44. There’s been a bit of action on this play, with 63% of bets on the Under but 60% of money backing the Over.
49ers vs. Broncos Picks
- Spread: 49ers -1.5 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★★
- Total: Under 44 (-107 via PointsBet) ★★★
- Player prop: Brandon Aiyuk Over 50.5 receiving yards (+100 via PointsBet) ★★★★
49ers vs. Broncos ATS Pick
49ers -1.5 (-107) ★★★★
Can Nathaniel hack it as a head coach? His time management and questionable play calling have set alarm bells ringing for even the most positive of fans. Their offense hasn’t been bad, averaging 391.5 yards per game, which is seventh in the league through two games. Russell Wilson is seventh in passing yards during that span, with 531. They’re just having difficulty scoring, with a total of 32 points so far and no scores in the red zone. It won’t get any easier on Sunday night when they face one of the league’s best defenses, which has allowed the fewest passing yards and fewest pass attempts.
Denver’s defense isn’t bad, either. They’ve yet to concede a touchdown from inside the red zone, and they’ve allowed the third-fewest rush attempts. Kyle Shanahan loves to run the ball and will have his work cut out trying to scheme against this opposition. But the Niners have the most efficient offense in this matchup. Jimmy Garoppolo’s 103.4 career passer rating in September is fourth best of any quarterback since the 1976 merger.
The Broncos have too many issues to figure out, and the 49ers are too good a team to allow them any time. Denver has had at least 10 penalties for 100 yards in each of their first two games, which no team has done in three years. To put their mess into perspective, the Broncos had only one game with 10 penalties or 100 penalty yards in the previous two seasons combined.
Not enough points are being laid for the Niners, so we’ve got to back the favorites in this one.
49ers vs. Broncos O/U Pick
Under 44 (-107) ★★★
The 49ers’ 365 rushing yards are their most through the first two games of a season since the 1998 team had 417. Their +230 rushing yards differential after two games is the team’s best since 1995 (+261) and ranks second in the NFL this season to the Browns.
Deebo Samuel has had at least 50 yards from scrimmage in 18 consecutive games, a streak dating to the start of last season. The only 49er with a longer such streak this century is Frank Gore.
With San Francisco’s desire to run the ball and control the clock, along with Denver’s ineptness in the red zone (no touchdown in six trips), expect points to be at a premium in this matchup.
49ers vs. Broncos Prop Pick
Aiyuk Over 50.5 receiving yards (+100) ★★★★
With the 49ers down multiple running backs, and Deebo Samuel operating as the wide back, expect Brandon Aiyuk to be Jimmy Garoppolo’s number one receiver. Aiyuk leads the team in receiving yards this season with 103, averaging 51.5 yards per game. His seven targets are the joint-most alongside Samuel.
Since Deebo Samuel was utilized in the wide back role throughout the second half of last season, Aiyuk was Garoppolo’s leading receiver on five occasions, including the playoffs. Over the final 10 regular season games last year, Aiyuk averaged 68.5 receiving yards. Jimmy G went deep to him twice when he came in for Trey Lance last week, and it’s trending for Brandon Aiyuk to be his main target again at Mile High.
Where to Bet on 49ers vs. Broncos Picks
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49ers-Broncos picks made 9/24/2022 at 7 a.m. ET
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