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Texas A&M vs. Alabama SEC Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Aggies’ Hot Play Continue?

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 12, 2023 7:35 AM EDT • 3 min 6 sec read.

Head coach Buzz Williams of the Texas A&M Aggies congratulates Wade Taylor IV as we look at our best Texas A&M vs. Alabama picks.
Head coach Buzz Williams of the Texas A&M Aggies congratulates Wade Taylor IV #4 as he comes out of the game during the first half of the SEC Basketball Tournament Semifinals against the Vanderbilt Commodores at Bridgestone Arena on March 11, 2023 in Nashville, Tennessee. Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images via AFP.

The Alabama Crimson Tide look to capture a second SEC tournament championship in the last three seasons as they face the Texas A&M Aggies in Sunday's title game. Read on for our Texas A&M vs. Alabama college basketball picks based on the top NCAAB odds.

For Texas A&M to even be alive for an SEC tournament championship, it had to overcome a 13-point halftime deficit against Arkansas in the quarterfinals. And when the Aggies outscored the Razorbacks 42-23 in the second half to secure a six-point victory, it snapped Arkansas’ 78-game winning streak when leading by at least 13 points at halftime. 

The Aggies hope to avoid being runners-up for the second consecutive season after losing to Tennessee 65-50 in last year’s SEC tournament championship game. Texas A&M faces an Alabama team that secured its school record 28th win Saturday, with star forward Brandon Miller setting the Crimson Tide record for most points in a single season by a freshman (645). Before their SEC championship title in 2021, the Crimson Tide made it that far once from 1993-2019, per ESPN Stats & Info.

Here is our best Texas A&M vs. Alabama college basketball pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Texas A&M vs. Alabama odds

Texas A&M vs. Alabama prediction

Texas A&M +4.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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When discussing the national championship potential of SEC teams, Alabama and Tennessee are often hailed as the most likely candidates. Yet Buzz Williams’ Texas A&M team is 17-3 in league play in a conference that should get at least eight teams in the NCAA tournament field, and no one speaks of the Aggies as dark horse contenders.

Texas A&M has played some of its best basketball all season over the last 60 minutes. It started by holding Arkansas to 23 points in the second half of the quarterfinals after allowing the Razorbacks to shoot 54.2% in the first half. Then, the Aggies put their semifinal game against Vanderbilt away early after a blustering 20-for-29 shooting performance (69%) in the opening 20 minutes. That start to the game led Texas A&M to score its most points in a conference tournament game since 1994. 

The Aggies could not have shot much worse in their regular season finale against Alabama, going 14-for-37 (37.8%) from inside the arc and 4-for-16 (25%) from deep. Yet, Texas A&M still eked out a six-point victory largely because it bullied the Crimson Tide into 18 turnovers and attempted 17 more free throws in the game. That result embodies what the Aggies have done all year, making all the hustle plays (they rank seventh nationally in offensive rebounding percentage) and overcoming ugly shooting performances.

Texas A&M is 11-6 against the spread away from home this year and covered the spread in 15 of 20 SEC games. We like for the Aggies to stay with this number again and battle an Alabama team destined for a No. 1 seed.

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Texas A&M vs. Alabama best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
+4.5+4.5+4.5+4.5+4
(-110/-110)(-110/-110)(-110/-110)(-110/-110)(-110/-110)

PointsBet would seem to be the only sportsbook Texas A&M backers want to avoid, as it is the last to move higher than Alabama -4. Alabama is 18-14-1 ATS this season while Texas A&M has covered 23 of 33 games, making it the third-most profitable ATS team in the country for the 2022-23 campaign

Texas A&M vs. Alabama odds analysis

Alabama opened as a consensus -3.5 point favorite, but any line movement that has occurred since has moved in its direction, as the Crimson Tide are at -4.5 across several of our best sportsbooks. Fifty-eight percent of early point spread bets have backed the favorites.

The O/U opened at 145.5 and has remained there at most sportsbooks, while it is at 145 at BetRivers. There has been solid two-way action on the total thus far, with 55% of bets backing the Under.

Texas A&M vs. Alabama game info

  • Date: Sunday, March 12, 1 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: Bridgestone Arena, Nashville, TN

Texas A&M-Alabama pick made 3/11/2023 at 11:01 p.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.