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TCU vs. Houston Prediction, Pick & Odds: Big 12 Tournament

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 14, 2024 11:21 AM EDT • 4 min 1 sec read.

Head coach Jamie Dixon of the TCU Horned Frogs yells to his team as we look at our best TCU vs. Houston prediction for the Big 12 Tournament
Head coach Jamie Dixon of the TCU Horned Frogs yells to his team during the second half of the game against the Oklahoma Sooners. Photo by Jay Biggerstaff/Getty Images via AFP.

TCU looks to score a big upset over No. 1 ranked Houston in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament, and we offer our best TCU vs. Houston prediction based on the best college basketball odds.

The No. 8 seed TCU (21-11, 9-9 Big 12) experienced a downturn, losing three of four games to conclude the regular season. However, they bounced back with a 77-70 victory in the opening round of the Big 12 Tournament against Oklahoma. Since 2017, the Horned Frogs haven't secured two or more wins in the conference tournament.

Houston (28-3, 15-3 Big 12), seeded No. 1, seamlessly transitioned to the Big 12 from the AAC in their inaugural season. It clinched the regular-season league title and maintained a strong performance throughout the year, earning the top spot in the AP poll multiple times.

However, one of Houston’s three losses this season came against TCU, a 68-67 Horned Frogs victory in Fort Worth.

As part of our college basketball player props and best bets for Thursday, here is our best TCU vs. Houston prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

TCU vs. Houston prediction

TCU +10.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via BetMGM

Despite losing to TCU earlier in the season, Houston will likely be a popular play in a revenge spot on Thursday. However, while the Cougars are 2-0 in avenging regular season losses by an average of 19 points, both of those rematches were at home, and Houston has not exactly been lighting opponents up away from home recently. Granted, playing a neutral site game is a lot different than playing a true road game, but Houston has won its last four road games by an average of 5.3 points per contest, and one of those went to overtime. Instead of backing the Cougars to win comfortably, we expect the Horned Frogs to keep this game close based on what they can do defensively to frustrate them.

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Houston was coming off a loss to Iowa State when it dropped its second consecutive game to TCU, and perhaps that was unsurprising, considering both defenses employed similar strategies. The Cyclones utilized hard ball screen denial, and the Cougars only scored 0.46 points per possession in ball screen offense despite using it 45% of the time. TCU did a masterful job of blitzing ball screens and getting the ball out of Houston’s best players' hands, forcing the Cougars to shoot just 4-for-18 (22.2%) from beyond the arc. And while Houston did a masterful job limiting TCU’s transition opportunities (the Cougars entered that game ranked in the first percentile in transition opportunities allowed), the Horned Frogs still scored an impressive 1.10 points per possession against the top-rated Cougars defense (in terms of adjusted defensive efficiency) despite being forced to operate mostly in the half court.

Another thing to note is that Houston had the services of Joseph Tugler and Ramon Walker Jr. in the first meeting, but both have since suffered season-ending injuries, and the lack of depth will hurt Houston in this game, especially in trying to keep a top 25 offensive rebounding team like TCU off the backboards for a full 40 minutes.

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TCU vs. Houston best odds

BetMGM (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
+10+9.5+10.5+10+10
-110-102-110-110-110

There is a wide one-point range on the point spread among all of our best sports betting sites, and that has us naturally gravitating towards BetMGM for our wager, as it is the only shop offering a line as high as +10.5 points to back the underdogs.

While some bettors may be more enticed by the less steep -102 at FanDuel, in our opinion, this is not worth taking an extra point off the spread. A $10 wager at -102 odds would pay out $19.80 ($9.80 in profit) on a winning bet, while the payout is $19.09 ($9.09 in profit) wagering the same amount of money at -110 odds. With a negligible difference, we will often take the higher point spread as underdog backers.

TCU vs. Houston odds

TCU vs. Houston odds analysis

FanDuel opened at the lowest number across our best sports betting apps, and the line was predictably bet up quickly from -8.5 to -9.5. Elsewhere, Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365 reached a high of -10.5, but TCU backers weighed in at that number and drove the line down some, making the lone +10.5 spread at BetMGM much more coveted. Houston is 14-15-2 ATS this season and 7-10-1 in 18 Big 12 games, while TCU is 19-13 ATS but has covered six of the seven games where it had a rest disadvantage.

The O/U is a sharp line, as all of our top sports betting sites are in unison with the 137.5-point total, and all have each side of the total juiced to -110. However, there was plenty of line movement at our best sportsbooks to get to this point, as FanDuel and BetMGM have lowered from an opening number of 138.5, while DraftKings and Caesars are down from 138.

TCU vs. Houston game info

  • When: Thursday, March 14 at 3:00 p.m. ET
  • Where: T-Mobile Center, Kansas City, MO
  • How to watch: ESPN

TCU-Houston prediction made Thursday at 6:49 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.