Saint Peter's vs. North Carolina: 2022 March Madness Picks and Odds

Henry John

Last Updated: March 27, 2022 8:50 AM EDT • 4 min 8 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

PHILADELPHIA, PENNSYLVANIA - MARCH 25: KC Ndefo #11 and Jaylen Murray #32 of the St. Peter's Peacocks celebrate after defeating the Purdue Boilermakers 67-64 in the Sweet Sixteen round game of the 2022 NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament at Wells Fargo Center on March 25, 2022 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Patrick Smith/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Patrick Smith / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

The Peacocks are the darlings of an entire nation, but they will be up against it in terms of size and physicality against the Tar Heels. Keep reading for our Saint Peter's-North Carolina picks.

In what is by far the most improbable Regional Final pairing of this year’s NCAA Tournament, the St. Peter’s Peacocks will battle the North Carolina Tar Heels for the East Region title on Sunday night.

The Cinderella story that is Saint Peter’s (23-9 against the spread, 13-19 Over/Under) remains alive and well. With their victory over Purdue on Friday, the Peacocks became the first-ever 15-seed to reach the Elite Eight. Mind you, this was a team that didn’t even finish first in the MAAC regular-season standings!

St. Peter’s has proven that none of that matters in March Madness. With ten consecutive victories, the Peacocks own the longest active winning streak of any team in college basketball. Now, they are just one win away from becoming the most improbable Final Four team in NCAA Tournament history.

Based on the fact that they are only an eight-seed, North Carolina’s (19-16-1 ATS, 21-15 O/U) reaching the Elite Eight was by no means an expected outcome either. The Tar Heels can thank Caleb Love for their most recent triumph over UCLA. The sophomore guard was on fire in the second half and simply could not miss finishing the game with 30 points. Even 3-pointers from the logo were going in. No one has questioned the talent on this UNC roster. However, it was a lack of consistency throughout the regular season that hindered their overall power rating and tournament seeding.

Here are my Saint Peter's-North Carolina picks and predictions for Sunday's Elite Eight matchup (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Saint Peter’s vs. North Carolina Game Info

Date: Sunday, March 27, 5:05 p.m. ETTV Coverage: CBSLocation: Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

Saint Peter’s vs. North Carolina Odds Analysis

Much like their Sweet 16 game against Purdue, the Peacocks have seen the betting market move the point spread against them for this Elite Eight contest. Oddsmakers initially established North Carolina as an eight-point favorite. Now, the Tar Heels are laying -8.5 across the market. Additional juice on the UNC side suggests that the line could climb higher still. Saint Peter’s has become the Cinderella darling of this year’s NCAA Tournament. Thus, it is no surprise to find that 66% of spread bets are on the Peacocks.

As for the total, an opening line of 137 has also nudged up half a point to a consensus of 137.5. However, bettors can find tremendous variations in this line depending on the sportsbook. An even 138 is widely available while a couple of shops are even listing the total at 138.5. The Over is also the public side of this game. 61% of all totals tickets believe that the two teams will combine for Over 137.5 total points.

Saint Peter’s vs. North Carolina Picks

North Carolina -8.5 (-106) ??Under 138.5 (-110) ???

Saint Peter’s vs. North Carolina Predictions

North Carolina -8.5 (-106)

At some point, Saint Peter’s luck has to run out, right? Although laying a sizeable spread with an inconsistent team like North Carolina is daunting, bettors can at least feel comfortable knowing that the Tar Heels have peaked at the right time.

The real crux of this handicap is the belief that Saint Peter’s will not be able to keep up with the red-hot UNC offense. On the season, the Tar Heels have averaged 114.4 points per 100 possessions. According to KenPom, this ranks as the 19th most efficient offense in the country. During the NCAA Tournament, North Carolina has been even better.

After dropping over 92 points in their first two wins over Marquette and top-seeded Baylor, Caleb Love picked up the slack against a UCLA program that was one of the best defensive teams in the nation all season long. The last thing Saint Peter’s can afford to have to happen on Sunday is for Love to be in the same shooting zone in which he was on Friday night.

Even if Love doesn't repeat his shooting heroics, the problem is that North Carolina still has plenty of other capable scorers. Furthermore, big men Armando Bacot and Brady Manek will enjoy a distinct size and physicality advantage down low against Saint Peter’s frontcourt.

Bacot in particular will be a key component in tonight’s matchup. He averaged a massive double-double this season with 16.4 points and 12.6 rebounds on a per-game basis. No one on the Peacocks roster is capable of containing him one-on-one, and North Carolina should ultimately establish itself as the more talented and physically-gifted side.

Under 138.5 (-110)

Considering how North Carolina has been rolling offensively throughout the NCAA Tournament, betting the Over would seem to be the logical thing to do. However, the only way Saint Peter’s has a shot is if they slow the pace down and play rock-solid defense.

Friday saw the Tar Heels falter a bit on the offensive end against one of the nation’s top defenses. Although Saint Peter’s doesn’t rank as highly as UCLA, KenPom does list the Peacocks at No. 25 in Division I in terms of defensive efficiency. SPU has allowed only 92.9 points per 100 possessions on the season.

A key thing to note is the contrasting tempos that these two teams prefer to play at. While North Carolina averages over 70 possessions per 40 minutes, the Peacocks barely average 66. In terms of nationwide rankings, UNC is 36th in adjusted tempo as opposed to Saint Peter’s at No. 241. Sunday's game will fall somewhere in the middle of the two extremes.

The final element to note here is the shooting percentages that each team has achieved during their respective NCAA Tournament runs. It was clear that Saint Peter’s would not be able to replicate their 51% shooting clip from the First Round against Kentucky. Meanwhile, North Carolina also cannot be expected to convert at the 45% and above rate that they achieved in both of their first weekend games.

With much of the market listing this total one full point lower at 137.5, bettors are able to score solid value with the line at FanDuel. The adjusted number is simply too high of a bar for these teams to reach given their styles of play.

Where to Bet Saint Peter's-North Carolina Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook Caesars Sportsbook DraftKings Sportsbook PointsBet BetMGM

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.

Saint Peter's North Carolina picks made 3/27/2022 at 1:55 p.m. ET.

Written By:
Henry John

Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.