Purdue vs. UConn Prediction: Men's National Championship Expert Pick & Odds
The Purdue Boilermakers and UConn Huskies are set for an epic title clash Monday in the men's national championship game, and we have our Purdue vs. UConn prediction and expert pick based on the top March Madness odds.
After one of the most entertaining college basketball seasons in recent memory, the NCAA Tournament is nearly over. All that's left, of course, is an epic duel between two No. 1 seeds as the title favorite UConn Huskies (36-3) face the underdog Purdue Boilermakers (34-4) - with tipoff set for 9:20 p.m. ET from State Farm Stadium in Glendale, Ariz. (TBS)
The Huskies are 6.5-point favorites across our best sports betting sites to beat the Boilermakers, the largest spread for a title game between No. 1 seeds in 25 years. Both sides feature the two favorites in the March Madness MVP odds as Purdue's Zach Edey and UConn's Donovan Clingan do battle down low.
If Connecticut wins on Monday, it'll become the first team to win back-to-back national titles since the Florida Gators did so under Billy Donovan in 2006-07. Meanwhile, Purdue is looking to become the third team to claim its first championship in the last five tournaments.
To accompany our men's national championship expert picks, here is our best Purdue vs. UConn prediction and expert pick - and don't miss our Purdue vs. UConn player props and Zach Edey player props (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Purdue (1) vs. UConn (1) game info
- When: Monday, April 8
- Tip-off: 9:20 p.m. ET
- Where: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
- How to watch: TBS
- Favorite: UConn -6.5 (-114 via FanDuel)
Purdue vs. UConn odds
Purdue vs. UConn prediction
Zach Edey Under 37.5 points + rebounds ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Best odds: -111 via FanDuel
Set to become just the second player ever to win the Wooden Award twice, Edey has proven to be one of the most challenging matchups in college basketball history. Like Ralph Sampson, the only player with two Wooden Awards, Edey is 7-foot-4 and creates impossible mismatches with his size.
However, UConn's defense is arguably the best-suited in college basketball for this particular clash. While Clingan isn't quite as large as Edey, he's still 7-foot-2, 280 pounds and has proven to be one of the best paint defenders in the country.
Thanks to "Cling Kong," UConn ranks fourth in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom, and Clingan is rated as the best defender in the sport by DBPR, per EvanMiya. The likely NBA lottery pick had dealt with injuries earlier in his sophomore season but has become an undeniable force throughout the Big East and NCAA Tournaments.
Over those eight games, Clingan is averaging 3.25 blocks and 9.1 rebounds. So not only will he be able to compete with Edey down low as a rim protector, but he should also be able to poach some of the rebounds Purdue's big man is used to getting due to his sheer size. Even though Edey has been a complete force during March Madness, he's coming off a slower game by his standards in the Final Four against NC State.
He combined for 32 points and rebounds and only managed two free-throw attempts against the Wolfpack. The length and size of NC State's big men, D.J. Burns and Mohamed Diarra gave Edey more trouble than he's used to, and Clingan can do the same.
For now, this prop is only being offered at two of our best sports betting apps. The value at FanDuel stands out with a $10 wager leading to a $9.01 profit if the Under hits. DraftKings has Edey's line a point lower at 36.5 with the Under at -125, which implies a 55.56% probability it will hit, according to our odds calculator.
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Purdue vs. UConn spread & Over/Under analysis
After UConn knocked off Alabama in the Final Four, the Huskies opened as a 6.5-point favorite at our best live betting sites. Though there's been minimal line movement to this point, we wouldn't be surprised to see the spread shift a half-point in either direction by tip. UConn is among the best teams ATS this season at 27-12, while Purdue is 21-15-2.
The Over/Under opened between 146 and 146.5 with little movement thus far. Both team's defenses are anchored by gargantuan big men who make scoring difficult, so this could drop to as low as 144.5. The Boilermakers may be an impressive 23-15 betting the Over, but the Huskies are 22-16-1 betting the Under.
Purdue-UConn prediction made Sunday at 9:30 a.m. ET.
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