Oakland vs. Cleveland State College Basketball Picks: Golden Grizzlies Looking for Revenge

Mike Randle

Last Updated: January 13, 2022 8:07 AM EST • 3 min 7 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

EAST LANSING, MI - DECEMBER 13: Head coach Greg Kampe of the Oakland Golden Grizzlies talks to his team on a time out in the first half of a college basketball game against the Michigan State Spartans at the Breslin Center on December 13, 2020 in East Lansing, Michigan. Dave Reginek/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by Dave Reginek / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Two teams off to great starts square off tonight in Ohio. Find out what we think is the best betting angle with our Oakland-Cleveland State picks.

The top two teams in the Horizon League battle tonight with the Oakland Golden Grizzlies traveling to take on Cleveland State.

Oakland (11-4) has played a strong non-conference schedule in preparation for a legitimate run at the Horizon League title. Head coach Greg Kampe enters his 38th year with one of the best Oakland rosters in his career with the Grizzlies. Oakland is focused on revenge, after losing three times to the Vikings last season, including the Horizon League championship game.

Cleveland State (10-3) has built on last year’s strong season, currently again atop the Horizon League with a 6-0 record. The Vikings are on a four-game winning streak and have won 10 of their last 11 games.

Here is my pick and prediction for Thursday night’s college basketball matchup between the Oakland Golden Grizzlies and Cleveland State Vikings (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Oakland vs. Cleveland State Game Info

Date/Time: Thursday, Jan. 13, 7 p.m. ETTV: ESPN+Location: Wolstein Center, Cleveland, OH

Oakland vs. Cleveland State Odds Analysis

The line opened with Cleveland State as a 1-point favorite and has moved a half-point since to Cleveland. Cleveland State is 6-5 against the spread but has failed to cover three of their past four games. They are 9-1 SU at home, but just 3-4 ATS at the Wolstein Center. The Golden Grizzlies are 3-3 ATS on the road but have covered two of their past three games away from the Recreation and Athletics Center.

The total started at 149 and like the spread has moved a point upwards. 56% of the cash and 63% of the tickets are on the Over. Oakland is 6-8 on the Over/Under and Cleveland State is 6-5.

Oakland vs. Cleveland State Picks

Oakland +1.5 (-110) ????Under 150 (-120) ???

Oakland vs. Cleveland State Predictions

Oakland +1.5 (-110)

Oakland is still stinging from losing three times to the Vikings last season, especially in the Horizon League Championship last season. Cleveland State enjoyed a magic carpet ride last season, winning the regular-season title and conference tournament after being predicted to finish seventh in the preseason poll.

The Vikings have succeeded with a suffocating defense that hopefully creates offensive opportunities from turnovers. Cleveland State has even improved their defensive pressure from last season and currently ranks 29th in defensive turnover efficiency per KenPom. The Vikings force 16.15 turnovers per game, Top 50 in the nation. However, Oakland has also improved their defensive pressure, ranking 62nd in defensive turnover efficiency and forcing 15.6 turnovers per game.

While both teams are undefeated in Horizon League play, there is a huge difference in how both have performed. Cleveland State has won its six league games by an average of 7.8 points. However, their last four games have been too close for comfort. The Vikings played an inferior Purdue Fort Wayne team at home twice and won by only nine and seven points. Their last two games have been a one-point win at 2-13 Robert Morris and an overtime win at Youngstown State.

Oakland has also been far more impressive in league play, winning their five games by an average of 18.2 PPG. That includes comfortable home wins over the same pair of opponents in Robert Morris and Youngstown State.

The Golden Grizzlies are a very efficient team on the interior, shooting 54.7% from two-point range. They are also a much better free-throw shooting team, going 77.27% overall and an 80.9% rate in league play. Cleveland State’s free throw shooting is a huge weakness, shooting just 67.11% from the line. I’ll take Oakland as a slight underdog in the perfect revenge spot.

Under 150 (-120)

Battles between two top league teams tend to create fewer possessions. I expect the same type of game between these two rivals.

This line is set high because all three games last season finished at 149 points or higher. However, Oakland was a much different team last season, finishing at 12-18 overall and just 10-10 in league play. The Golden Grizzlies were one of the most profitable Over teams in the country last season, finishing with a 23-7 record to the Over. This season, Oakland is actually hitting the Under more often, sitting at an 8-7 record to the Under this year. In road games, they have hit the Under in five of their six games.

The Vikings are still a team that struggles on the offensive end of the floor, specifically in free throw shooting. I expect the Oakland zone to limit Cleveland State’s scoring, which means they must bring even more of an effort on the defensive end to stay competitive.

I’m backing the Under in a game I think neither team reaches 70 points.

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Oakland-Cleveland State picks made on 1/13/2022 at 1:06 p.m. ET