Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama Predictions, Odds & Picks: Will No. 1 Seed Dominate March Madness Opener?
The Alabama Crimson Tide were crowned the No. 1 overall seed entering March Madness and begin their title run Thursday against First Four survivors Texas A&M Corpus Christi. Read on for our Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama prediction based on the top NCAAB odds.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi (24-10, 14-4 Southland) enters this game off of its first NCAA Tournament win in school history. The 75-71 First Four victory over Southeast Missouri State was the Islanders’ 13th win in 14 games and their 19th in 23 contests when leading at halftime.
Alabama (29-5, 16-2 SEC) is a No. 1 seed, let alone the top overall seed, for the first time in school history. The Crimson Tide have reached the Elite Eight once in school history (2004). However, this is their best opportunity to advance to their first Final Four and secure the first men’s basketball national championship in school history.
Here is our best Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama prediction (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama odds
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama prediction
Alabama -23.5 (-108 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
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In Texas A&M Corpus Christi’s two games against Power Five competition this year, it lost by 19 at Mississippi State and 23 at Oklahoma State. In those games, the Islanders committed 34 combined turnovers and shot 15-of-53 (28.3% from 3-point range). While this game is not a true road game, it will feel like one in Alabama’s backyard in Birmingham.
The Islanders should feel fortunate even to be playing in the Round of 64, as they benefited greatly from a free-throw disparity against Southeast Missouri State. The Redhawks committed 31 fouls in the game (most in First Four history) and made just 9-of-20 free throws (45%) despite entering the game shooting 72% as a team.
The Islanders bullied the Redhawks on the glass, out-rebounding them 45-30, which led to 17 second-chance points. An Alabama defense that ranks first in the country in effective field goal percentage will play much more disciplined and not send Texas A&M Corpus Christi to the line 35 times as SEMO did.
In addition, the Islanders did not miss the services of guard Terrion Murdix last game, but his absence will be sorely missed against the Crimson Tide. Murdix (13.4 points per game, 5.4 assists per game) is out for the tournament with a knee injury. He is the engine that makes the Islanders offense go, ranking top five nationally in assist rate and spearheading the defense with a top 17 steal percentage.
Alabama head coach Nate Oats summed up beautifully why this is a three-star play when he spoke about Texas A&M Corpus Christi and SEMO before their head-to-head matchup. He said, “They both play fast, which is good and bad. Obviously we’ve got more talent than them. We’re the No. 1 overall seed. When you have more talent, you want more possessions.”
Thus, this spread is more than generous given the Islanders’ struggles with other elite competition, even if the Crimson Tide have one eye on the Maryland-West Virginia winner.
Check out our best March Madness odds and Wooden Award odds.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama best odds
FanDuel (-108)
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | PointsBet |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -23.5 | -23.5 | -23.5 | -24 | -23.5 |
| -110 | -108 | -110 | -110 | -110 |
The 23.5-point spread is the most popular number out there, and we are headed to FanDuel for this wager to take advantage of its slightly more affordable juice. Given that this spread rose from 22.5 overnight, we are making this wager now as we would be less comfortable playing it at -24 or higher. No. 16 seeds are a respectable 34-33-1 ATS against No. 1 seeds since 2005.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama odds analysis
Alabama is most commonly found at -24 as of Thursday morning, but many sports betting sites, like DraftKings and FanDuel, opened at -22.5 shortly after the First Four result was known. At this time, 51% of the point spread wagers have backed Texas A&M.
The consensus opening O/U of 155.5 has held firm at most sportsbooks, though Caesars is the one sportsbook way off from the rest of the market, offering 154. There has been excellent two-way betting splits thus far, with 51% of the wagers backing the Over.
Texas A&M Corpus Christi vs. Alabama game info
- Date: Thursday, March 16, 2:45 p.m. ET
- TV: CBS
- Location: Legacy Arena at BJCC, Birmingham, AL
Texas A&M Corpus Christi-Alabama pick made 3/15/2023 at 8:32 a.m. ET.
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