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Caitlin Clark of the Iowa Hawkeyes dribbles the ball as we look at our LSU vs. Iowa predictions
Caitlin Clark of the Iowa Hawkeyes dribbles the ball against the South Carolina Gamecocks during the 2023 NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament Final Four semifinal game at American Airlines Center on Mar. 31, 2023 in Dallas, Texas. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images via AFP.

After a pair of upsets in Friday’s NCAA women’s Final Four, we're left with both a compelling and an unexpected matchup in Sunday’s title game. In advance of the SEC vs. Big Ten collision, here are our best LSU vs. Iowa predictions based on the top NCAAB odds.

One of the wildest NCAA women’s basketball tournaments in recent memory crowns its champion Sunday. In a rather unlikely championship-game pairing, the three-seed LSU Tigers (33-2) clash with the No. 2-seed Iowa Hawkeyes (31-6). 

Top seeds have largely dominated the NCAA women’s tournament throughout history. So, this year’s title game is unique because neither participant was seeded first in its respective regions. 

LSU knocked off top-seeded Virginia Tech in the Final Four on Friday night to advance. That upset was followed by Iowa springing one of its own against previously unbeaten and defending national champion South Carolina. In addition to the surprising pair of finalists, a contrast of styles could also emerge in Sunday’s title game.

Here is our best LSU vs. Iowa prediction for the women's college basketball final (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

LSU vs. Iowa prediction

LSU +3.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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The blueprint to beat Iowa is quite simple: find a way to slow down guard Caitlin Clark. Of course, this is much easier to identify than execute on the floor. Even mighty South Carolina found this out the hard way Friday night as Clark dropped 41 points to lead Iowa to the upset. 

The 77 points the Hawkeyes scored Friday tied for the most Carolina allowed in any game all season. The question is whether or not Clark has one more heroic performance left against an LSU defense that's very solid in its own right. The Tigers rank 24th nationally in scoring defense, allowing only 56.7 points per game.

When it comes to talent depth, LSU should have the upper hand in this championship showdown. As impressive as Clark’s numbers are this year, Tigers forward Angel Reese put up 23.3 points and 15.6 rebounds per game. 

Along with forward LaDazhia Williams, LSU’s frontcourt has the talent to compete with Iowa’s forward Monika Czinano. The Tigers also have a trio of scrappy guards, led by second-leading scorer Alexis Morris. Perhaps most importantly, LSU showed it can win matchups in multiple ways this season. 

While Clark and the Hawkeyes’ prolific offense garner the headlines, LSU quietly ranks an NCAAW fifth in scoring. With a sub-300 national ranking in scoring defense, Iowa could have its hands full trying to slow down another multi-faceted attack. 

South Carolina only shot 39% from the field and 20% from beyond the arc in Friday’s semifinal. Iowa will be hard-pressed to hold LSU to similar numbers after pulling off such a remarkable upset less than 48 hours prior.

LSU vs. Iowa best odds

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsSuperBook
+3.5+3.5+3.5+3+3
-110-115-115-110-110

Odds shopping is very important for those betting the side in Sunday’s title game. DraftKings is clearly the preferred destination for LSU backers. The +3.5 spread sits a half-point higher than what some competitors offer. DK is also the only book currently offering -110 odds on the Tigers at this line.

LSU vs. Iowa odds analysis

Opening odds for the NCAA Women’s Tournament Final favored Iowa by only 1.5 points. Since the Hawkeyes just knocked off an undefeated South Carolina team that many penciled in as the championship favorite, it’s no shock the market moved in their favor. Iowa is now favored by 3 points or more across all major sportsbooks.

While the point spread grew larger relative to opening lines, the opposite is true of the game total. Initial lines set the Over/Under at 162.5 for this matchup between two of women's college basketball's top five scoring offenses. The line since dipped 2 full points to the current 160.5 consensus. A few shops adjusted even further down to 160 flat.

LSU vs. Iowa game info

  • Date: Sunday, April 2, 3:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ABC
  • Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX

LSU vs. Iowa pick made 4/1/2023 at 2:28 p.m. ET.

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