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Florida State vs. UNC Prediction, Pick & Odds: ACC Tournament

Mike Spector

Last Updated: March 14, 2024 11:02 AM EDT • 3 min 21 sec read.

Seth Trimble #7 of the North Carolina Tar Heels goes to the basket as we make our Florida State vs. North Carolina prediction
Seth Trimble #7 of the North Carolina Tar Heels goes to the basket during the second half of the game against the Florida State Seminoles. Photo by Lance King/Getty Images via AFP.

We're making our best Florida State vs. UNC prediction based on the best college basketball odds for Thursday as the two meet for the third time this season in the quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament.

The No. 9 seed Florida State Seminoles (17-15, 10-10 ACC) won a game in the ACC Tournament for the first time since 2021 on Wednesday. They snapped a skid of back-to-back first-round exits with an 86-76 victory over Virginia Tech.

The No. 1 seeded - and ACC Tournament odds favorite - North Carolina Tar Heels (25-6, 17-3 ACC) enter off their first ACC regular-season title since 2017. UNC didn't clinch until it beat Duke 84-79 in the regular-season finale and now seeks its second ACC Tournament since 2008 and first since 2016.

North Carolina won both regular-season meetings between these teams, prevailing at home 78-70 on Dec. 2, and 75-68 in Tallahassee on Jan. 27.

As part of our college basketball player props and best bets for Thursday, here is our best Florida State vs. UNC prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Florida State vs. UNC prediction: ACC Tournament

Over 153.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best bet: -110 via Caesars

UNC and Florida State’s two regular-season meetings stayed under the projected total by an average of 10 points per contest, and the second meeting saw the two teams combine for just 143 points.

We expect regression to the mean in this third meeting given that both teams have no problem pushing the pace with tempos that rank in the top 42 nationally.

UNC might rank 336th in bench minutes this season, but the Tar Heels must feel good about the bench production against Duke. Seth Trimble and Jae’Lyn Withers combined for 12 points and 12 rebounds.

But there is no doubt that Seminoles head coach Leonard Hamilton will try and exploit the Tar Heels’ seven-man rotation and get their most productive players in foul trouble. Florida State attempts free throws at the fourth-highest rate in ACC play this season.

The Seminoles attempted 19 total free throws in the two losses against the Tar Heels this year, but we expect them to push the envelope more and be more aggressive offensively with nothing to lose.

It would behoove Florida State to get UNC center Armando Bacot off the floor, as the Tar Heels have allowed an average of 77.3 points in the last four games in which he committed four-plus fouls.

Florida State still managed 1.21 points per possession against Virginia Tech in a game where it shot just 3-for-13 (23.1%) from 3-point range. A big key in the high-scoring affair was attempting 30 free throws, but the Seminoles also allowed 24 free throw attempts, and this game should soar over the projected total if it is a similar parade to the free throw line for both teams.

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Florida State vs. UNC best odds

Caesars, bet365 (-110)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsbet365
153.5153.5153.5153.5153.5
-112-115-115-110-110

While all of our best sports betting sites are in unison with the O/U of 153.5, Over backers will save some money by placing their wagers at Caesars or bet365 given that the Over is juiced as much as -115 at competing sportsbooks. 

UNC has played six games at a neutral site this season and five hit the Over on the projected total. Meanwhile, the Over is also 21-11 in FSU’s 32 games and it cashed in three of its last five conference tournament games.

Florida State vs. UNC odds

Florida State vs. UNC odds analysis

FanDuel is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a line of UNC -9.5, as all others are a full point higher at -10.5. As of Wednesday night, there was no reported line movement at any of the sportsbooks, but 65% of the early wagers had backed the underdog Seminoles, so there is a chance more shops move to -10 before tip-off.

Compared to the point spread, the O/U is slightly more evenly split, with 60% of the wagers backing the Over.

Florida State vs. UNC game info

  • When: Thursday, March 14 at noon ET
  • Where: Capital One Arena, Washington, D.C.
  • How to watch: ESPN

Florida State-North Carolina prediction made Wednesday at 8:19 p.m. ET.

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Written By:
Mike Spector
I have been in the sports writing industry for over three years, working for sites like BettingPros/FantasyPros, Oddschecker, and Sportsbook Review. In my first year writing for BettingPros, I finished with the #2 overall record in their annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an over/under and moneyline perspective. I am an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, and all college sports. In my opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and I am especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. I am a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." Follow me on Twitter for my best bets and commentary to go along with the wagers.