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Johnell Davis #1 of the Florida Atlantic Owls gestures for calm as we look at our best FAU vs. Wichita State prediction for Sunday
Johnell Davis #1 of the Florida Atlantic Owls gestures for calm after the Arizona Wildcats scored off of a turnover. Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images via AFP.

No. 20 Florida Atlantic is the only AP-ranked college basketball team in action on Super Bowl Sunday when facing Wichita State, and we offer our FAU vs. Wichita State prediction based on the best college basketball odds.

Florida Atlantic (18-5, 8-2 AAC) enters this game ranked, but its position might change after a 76-73 overtime loss to UAB on Thursday. This defeat ended a seven-game winning streak, during which it won five games by a margin of nine points or more.  

Since 2010, Wichita State (10-13, 2-8 AAC) has only finished below .500 in conference play once. However, unless there's a remarkable turnaround in its final eight games, it's on track to conclude its second losing season in conference play during that period. The Shockers secured their second win in the last 12 games, defeating UTSA 84-64. 

Here is our best FAU vs. Wichita State prediction and our college basketball picks (odds via our best March Madness betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

FAU vs. Wichita State prediction

Over 149.5 ⭐⭐⭐

Best odds: -110 via FanDuel

The familiarity between opponents typically tends to result in lower-scoring games, but that has not been the case for Florida Atlantic in the Dusty May era, as his teams have cashed the Over in 59.5% of conference games (50-34-2 to the Over) since 2019. And while these two teams played less than a month ago (an 86-77 home win for FAU), this is still Wichita State head coach Paul Mills’ first year on the job, and he is learning (like many other head coaches) how to slow down Johnell Davis and company.

Davis entered the last game against UAB averaging 23.8 points, 7.2 rebounds, 2.8 assists, and 1.6 steals per game over his previous five outings. While he stuffed the stat sheet with 11 rebounds and five assists against UAB, he was limited to 17 points on an inefficient 5-for-21 shooting. We do not expect two poor shooting performances in a row, especially when facing a Shockers defense that ranks 10th or worse in league play in effective field goal percentage, adjusted defensive efficiency, and 3-point percentage allowed (38.2%).

While Wichita State does a tremendous job of playing defense without fouling (it leads the league in opponents’ free throw attempts per field goal attempt), the Owls are not reliant on the charity stripe, ranking 11th in league play with 17.3% of their offense coming from the foul line.

That being said, FAU still attempted 22 free throws in its first game against Wichita State, a sign that the Shockers could not stay in front of the talented backcourt of Davis and Alijah Martin.

This is a three-star play, as Wichita State should play confidently on offense since it has averaged 74.8 points per game in its last four home games.


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FAU vs. Wichita State best odds

FanDuel (-110)

Over (-112)Over (-110)Over (-115)Over (-110)Over (-110)

Only two of our best sports betting sites have an O/U as low as 149.5, and between those two, FanDuel is the better value charging -110 in juice to back the Over, while BetMGM is juiced to -115.

We expect this number to rise as bettors will likely be swayed by Florida Atlantic’s top-19 scoring average this season (83.0 points per game). The Over has also cashed in Wichita State’s two games as a home underdog this season and in all three games against ranked opponents.

FAU vs. Wichita State odds

FAU vs. Wichita State odds analysis

FanDuel, BetMGM, and DraftKings all saw their totals reach highs of 150.5 overnight. FanDuel came up the highest from its opening number of 148.5 while the others initially opened at 149.5. More than two thirds of the early wagers (68/32) are in support of the Over.

DraftKings is the only one of our best sports betting apps offering a spread of FAU -7, while all other competitors are a half-point higher at -7.5. All line movement thus far has gone towards the underdog, as the spread is down from -8 at Caesars, DraftKings, and bet365, and has lowered a full point from -8.5 at BetMGM. That movement aligns with the betting splits, as 61% of wagers have backed Wichita State.

FAU vs. Wichita State game info

  • When: Sunday, Feb. 11 at Noon ET
  • Where: Charles Koch Arena, Wichita, KS
  • How to watch: ESPN2

FAU-Wichita State prediction made Sunday at 6:58 a.m. ET.

Here are our best March Madness betting sites:

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