Top College Basketball Picks for Thursday

Check out our top college basketball picks for Thursday's schedule for our favorite against the spread plays.

For now, the early-season tournaments and inter-conference battles have come to an end, but they provided a lot of drama this week, namely with the country's top-ranked team losing for the second consecutive week.

Thursday's post analyzes an exciting matchup between two mid-major schools with realistic chances of receiving at-large berths in the NCAA Tournament.

Here are my top picks for Thursday’s college basketball schedule (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Top College Basketball Picks

Missouri vs. Liberty -4.5 (-110) ?????Saint Mary's vs. Utah State -1.5 (-110) ???

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College Basketball Predictions

Liberty -4.5 (-110)

The Liberty Flames scheduled well in the non-conference, with games against LSU and Iona under their belt. Unfortunately for them, they lost both of those contests and added a third consecutive loss to Manhattan. However, they have since responded with back-to-back wins over Bethune-Cookman and Maryland-Eastern Shore.

Liberty plays at a dangerously slow tempo (344th in adjusted tempo per KenPom), which can get it into trouble if it falls behind against superior teams. That is what happened during the three-game losing skid, as the methodical offense is not predicated on playing from behind. We do not expect that to be the case against Missouri.

The Tigers are off to a disappointing 4-3 start, in large part because they cannot make outside shots and cannot defend the 3-point line. They rank 333rd in the country in 3-point shooting percentage (27.6) and are allowing opponents to shoot better than 35% from deep (283rd). In addition, Missouri does not play at a tempo that will make LIberty uncomfortable, nor does it have the size to exploit a Flames team that has allowed too many offensive rebounds. 

It is not typical for an SEC school to visit Liberty's campus, and the Flames will not squander that opportunity. Missouri is just 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games, and those struggles will continue on Thursday.

Utah State -1.5 (-110)

This is a fascinating matchup between two "mid-majors" that may not need to win their conferences to earn their spot in the NCAA Tournament. That is a testament to how good each of these programs has been recently, and how loaded their rosters are currently.

The most fascinating matchup in this game is how head coach Randy Bennett's St. Mary's squad will defend one of the best players in the country, Utah State's Justin Bean. Bean is tied for fifth in the country with 22.6 points per game, and head coach Ryan Odom will look to get him into mismatches and utilize his ability to create his own shot. 

The Aggies opened the season with a 72-69 home loss to UC Davis, but have played exceptional basketball over the last month, including big non-conference wins over Richmond and Oklahoma. The game against the Sooners was excellent preparation for this game, as Porter Moses and Randy Bennett employ similar defensive principles. 

The Aggies covered the spread in each of their last five games, while the Gaels are 1-4 ATS in their last five road games. Look for Utah State to secure a huge non-conference win.

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College basketball picks made 12/02/2021 at 7:35 a.m. ET.