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College Basketball Player Props & Best Bets Today: Schedule, Picks for Wednesday

Mike Spector

Last Updated: February 28, 2024 6:31 PM EST • 5 min 58 sec read.

College basketball best bets.
College basketball best bets.

Wednesday's college basketball slate features 11 teams in the AP top 25, and we offer our top college basketball player props and best bets for Wednesday based on the best college basketball odds.

With just a few weeks left until the Big Dance, it would seem that UConn, Houston, and Purdue have all locked up No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament as the top three teams by our March Madness odds. But the final top seed appears to be up for grabs.

Most experts believe Arizona has the inside track for the fourth top seed, even after another shocking loss last week. Yet fellow top-10 teams Tennessee and North Carolina could claim it with strong finishes to the regular season.

The Volunteers get a chance for a statement victory on Wednesday when they host No. 11 Auburn, the first of four ranked teams they play before the SEC tournament begins.

The Big East conference features numerous bubble teams, with Providence and Seton Hall aiming for crucial road victories against Marquette and Creighton to solidify positions. Both games present opportunities for significant statements.

Here are our college basketball player props and best bets for Wednesday (college basketball picks based on odds via our best March Madness betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Wednesday’s college basketball best bets

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Wednesday’s college basketball schedule and odds

(Odds Caesars)

Wednesday’s college basketball player props

Xavier Johnson Under 17.5 points vs. Bradley (-120 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐

Few teams rely on a point guard to initiate offense and create shots more than Southern Illinois does with Xavier Johnson.

Johnson ranks fourth nationally in the percentage of his team’s possessions he plays, 11th in minutes, and 45th in the percentage of his team’s shots taken (he sits third in league play in that metric). His ball dominance was evident during the first meeting between these teams in 2023-24 when he plodded his way to 18 points, but Johnson shot just 7-of-17 from the field.

However, Missouri Valley Conference opponents have become wise to how much Johnson means to the Salukis. And with the schedule lately being rematches of games played earlier against conference opponents, Johnson has been held to 12 shot attempts in three of the previous five contests.

Johnson played nearly 70% of the team’s minutes in 2023-24, and he scored just 18 points combined in the two regular-season meetings against Bradley last year. We love the positional size that the Braves can use on Johnson. Malevy Leons is one of the conference's best individual defenders, and he can also switch to Johnson if necessary off ball screens.

This is a three-star play, as Bradley’s defense is the best in MVC play in 2-point shooting percentage allowed and turnover percentage, and it's the league’s second-best in adjusted defensive efficiency.

We are making this wager at bet365, as DraftKings lowered its total for Johnson’s point total from 17.5 to 16.5 overnight.

Jalon Moore Over 0.5 3-pointers vs. Iowa State (-150 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Iowa State plays one of the most condensed defenses in the country, leading Division I in near-proximity shot rate allowed, according to Haslametrics. Opponents face no choice but to shoot over the top of the Cyclones, and Iowa State allows 3-point attempts at the eighth-highest rate in the country, and the highest in Big 12 play (45.7% of opponents’ shots come from beyond the arc in league games).

Oklahoma forward Jalon Moore doesn't shoot 3-pointers in volume while ranking sixth on the team in 3-point attempts (45) on the season. However, despite that limited volume, Moore has made at least one shot from deep in six of the previous eight games, and he went 1-for-2 from the 3-point line in the first meeting against the Cyclones. Oklahoma hoisted 25 3-pointers in that game, and the likelihood of a similar output on Wednesday makes us confident enough in a four-star play that Moore will make at least one triple. 

The best price is found at bet365, as DraftKings is posting slightly higher -155 odds for Moore to make at least one 3-pointer.

Wednesday’s college basketball game picks

Seton Hall-Creighton Under 144.5 (-112 via FanDuel, BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐

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Few bettors are eager to get involved in Creighton games, as the Bluejays’ volatile 3-point shooting is difficult to handicap.

Creighton’s last two games are a microcosm of its season, as the team looks like it can beat anybody when it shoots 50% from 3-point range, as it did during a 19-point blowout win over then-No. 1 UConn. But then the Bluejays followed that up with a 6-for-26 shooting performance from beyond the arc in a 14-point road loss to St. John’s. While coming home to face the Pirates should help the Bluejays' shooting percentages, Seton Hall’s versatility defensively and constant off-ball switching schemes should give Creighton fits.

Creighton entered the UConn game as the second-most efficient “rim and 3” offense in the country, according to ShotQuality. Then the school proceeded to score 1.44 points per possession on a top-20 defense. However, Seton Hall negated Creighton’s rim attack well in the first meeting, holding a Bluejays team that averages 60.4% shooting from 2-point range (third-best in the country) to just 47.8% from inside the arc.

While the first meeting between these teams featured 191 combined points scored, much of the damage was done in the three overtime periods, as the Big East rivals were dead-locked at 67 at the end of regulation. Creighton has cashed the Over in five consecutive conference home games after three straight Unders to begin Big East play. But we expect that Over streak to end, as the Under is 5-2 in Seton Hall’s seven games as road underdogs and against ranked opponents.

FanDuel and BetRivers are the only sportsbooks offering a total of 144.5, as all other competitors are a half-point lower at -144.

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Illinois -11 vs. Minnesota (-115 via Caesars, bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

By now most bettors are well-versed in the trend that Minnesota is easily the country's most profitable team against the spread, covering in 23 of 27 games this season. But oddsmakers also know that, and even though the seven points the Golden Gophers received during their last game at Nebraska seemed like a lot, they never came close to covering in a 73-55 loss, ending a streak of nine straight covers.

While that loss won't deter most bettors, we expect Illinois to pile on with another convincing victory on its home court.

The X-factor for the Illini is Coleman Hawkins, a 6-foot-10 matchup nightmare. Hawkins is fleet of foot and is too quick for Minnesota’s Pharrel Payne to defend, but he'll also be utilized a ton to draw 6-foot-11 Dawson Garcia out to the perimeter. Hawkins has scored 14-plus points in five of the last six games, and the Illini are 5-0 at home since Terrance Shannon retired from suspension, with those five wins coming by an average of 14.6 points per game. Illinois is also 4-2-1 ATS when it holds a rest advantage over its opponents in 2023-24, which it does in this matchup after playing on Saturday while Minnesota played late Sunday night at Nebraska.

Bettors who are willing to lay the 11 points will find heavy juice at all of our best sports betting sites. But the -115 price tag at Caesars and bet365 is still better than the spread of -11.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM.

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College basketball best bets made 2/28/2024 at 6:46 a.m. ET

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Written By:
Mike Spector
Mike started in the sports writing industry in July 2019, and gained a lot of followers in his first year after finishing with the No. 2 overall record in an annual NFL betting competition, which made picks against the spread, and from an Over/Under and moneyline perspective. Mike is an avid fan of the NFL, MLB, tennis, and all college sports. In his opinion, March Madness is the best sporting event there is, and he's especially euphoric starting with conference tournament time in college basketball. Mike's a big advocate of "fading the public" and making plays that are contrarian, constantly citing that "there are reasons why they have those big shiny buildings in Las Vegas." When making wagers, Mike always scours the best odds at all of the major sports betting sites, where he mostly sifts through DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM, and bet365. He's tried several others and is of the firm belief that bettors should not just stick to one sportsbook, as there is always likely better value to be had with the same wager. In addition, while Mike received his undergraduate degree from Villanova University, he has no issue betting against the Wildcats when it comes to college basketball wagering, and suggests other bettors should always put their “head” before their “hearts.”