Warriors vs. Pelicans NBA Picks: Only Golden State Has Something to Lose

The Golden State Warriors can lock up the No. 3 seed with a win over the play-in-bound New Orleans Pelicans. Check out our Warriors-Pelicans picks.

After a solid season, the Golden State Warriors are one victory away from a home playoff series against either the Denver Nuggets or the Utah Jazz. Who they’ll face depends entirely upon the results of Sunday's games. Golden State can finish as either the No. 3 or 4 seed, and the Nuggets and Jazz can finish as either the No. 5 or No. 6 seeds.

With so little settled, the Warriors can’t pick their next opponent by strategically losing. That means they’ll head into this one wanting to win to secure them a seeding advantage over Dallas.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA matchup between the Warriors and the Pelicans (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Warriors vs. Pelicans Game Info

Date: Sunday, April 10, 9:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Smoothie King Center, New Orleans, LA

Warriors vs. Pelicans Odds Analysis

The Warriors opened as 4-point favorites and have since picked up another 1.5 to 2 points of edge. Golden State has attracted 87% of the tickets and 85% of the handle.

We have also seen a fair amount of movement in the totals market. After opening at 223.5, the total has ticked down to 221 or 221.5, depending on your book. Interestingly, 90% of the handle has come in on the Over despite only 58% of the tickets landing on that side.

SEE ALSO: NBA Best Bets for Sunday: Matchups, Odds, Picks, and Predictions

Warriors vs. Pelicans Picks

Warriors -5.5 (-110 via DraftKings) ????Over 221 (-110 via FanDuel) ???Kevon Looney Over 3.5 Points (-140 via FanDuel) ????

SEE ALSO: Can Anyone Beat the Suns?

Warriors vs. Pelicans Predictions

Warriors -5.5 (-110)

As a play-in-bound team, the Pelicans are at a disadvantage. While the NBA’s playoff teams get a few days to rest, the play-in teams must prepare for do-or-die games. As a result, New Orleans would be foolish to burn out its starters in a meaningless game. That means Brandon Ingram should stay on the sidelines here, and others could join him.

We’ve already seen New Orleans start to pivot to the play-in with their personnel usage. They took a 27-point beating against the Memphis Grizzlies on Saturday, in which they rotated in almost their entire roster, with only one player - Willy Hernangomez - logging 30-plus minutes. Jonas Valanciunas played only six minutes.

In contrast, Golden State will benefit from some time off during the play-in. That makes me less concerned about the fact they just played Saturday. Golden State toppled the San Antonio Spurs by six points in its last game. The 30-plus minutes for Andrew Wiggins, Draymond Green, and Jordan Poole would worry me a lot more if the Warriors weren’t getting the next few days off.

This number will probably end up closer to double digits by tip-off. Lock in your bets now before it moves any further.

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Over 221 (-110)

I’ll side with the sharps again and take the Over. Golden State has played some great defense lately, which is probably why the books are comfortable posting a number this low for a Pelicans game. New Orleans hasn’t drawn a total this low since its game against the Orlando Magic on March 9.

However, you can throw most of the data out the window for this contest. New Orleans tipped its hand against Memphis, so we know we won’t see much of the offensive firepower that got the Pelicans into the play-in tournament. We’ll instead see quite a few inexperienced rotational players with a desire to score but no need to defend. That’s why the Grizzlies racked up 141 points against New Orleans.

Golden State still has the No. 3 seed to lock down, so I expect organized offensive play from the Warriors. Though their defense may lock down New Orleans’ offense, the Pelicans’ defense won’t care enough to stop Golden State, which should allow this one to sail Over a somewhat low number.

I would put my action on the other markets tonight, but totals bettors can rest assured that the Over is the better play here.

Kevon Looney Over 3.5 points (-140)

We’ve got a bottom-barrel number for Looney to clear tonight, and I’m a big fan of targeting him to do so. The Warriors have limited Looney to 15 minutes or less over their last five games, but the big man has still gone Over this number in his last two outings. He posted four points against the Lakers and six against the Spurs. He even took six shots in only 12 minutes in the latter contest.

With the Pelicans featuring more of Willy Hernangomez and less of Jonas Valanciunas at the five, Looney should spend some of his time lined up against the former. That’s a boon for him, as Hernangomez owns a minus-2.0 defensive RAPTOR rating compared to Valanciunas’ plus-0.8. This has led New Orleans to give up more points in the paint over their recent contests. Although they have permitted only 45.4 points in the paint per game on the year, that number jumps to 52.7 when looking at only their last three contests.

The minutes make backing Looney a big risk, but he actually enters this game as one of Golden State’s fresher players. Looney played the fewest minutes of the 10 players that saw the court on Saturday. Steve Kerr probably won’t give Looney more than 15 minutes against the Pelicans, but the big man should get more than the 12 he played the night before.

Where to Bet on Warriors-Pelicans Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Warriors-Pelicans picks made 4/10/2022 at 1:18 p.m. ET.