NBA Western Conference Futures: Can Anyone Beat the Suns?

By any measure, the Phoenix Suns are far and away the best team in the NBA – and as unfathomable as it seems, we still might not be giving them enough credit.

(We might not, but the sportsbooks certainly are.)

Phoenix carries a nine-game winning streak – its fourth run of eight or more wins this season – into a Friday night encounter with a Memphis Grizzlies team that has been impressive on its own. The Grizzlies have reeled off six straight victories and 54 on the season, and they have home-court advantage on Friday (where they’re a dominant 28-10 on the year).

And despite it all, the Grizzlies are still 7.5-point underdogs.

What the Suns have done this season defies credulity. That’s saying something when you consider how incredible this team was last year, crafting a 51-win season and a stunning NBA Finals appearance seemingly out of nowhere. Despite not being able to sneak up on teams this season, Phoenix has been even better. And that’s a problem for the rest of the Western Conference.

So with the Suns fast approaching the break-even point from an odds perspective to represent the Western Conference for the second straight year, the burning question in bettors’ minds is: Can anyone upend the Suns?

https://twitter.com/Suns/status/1509392711035461633

Western Conference Winner Odds

(Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook)

Phoenix Suns +115Golden State Warriors +400Memphis Grizzlies +700Utah Jazz +900Dallas Mavericks +9500Denver Nuggets +1200Los Angeles Clippers +2000

Armed with the deepest roster in the NBA – led by ageless point guard Chris Paul and cerebral scoring machine Devin Booker – the Suns have laid waste to the rest of the league. Along the way, they've rekindled memories of those dominant Golden State Warriors teams from the last decade. In a strange twist of fate, it’s the current version of the Warriors that just might stand the best chance of shutting the door on the Suns' quest to return to the Finals.

Golden State has been positively dreadful without guard Stephen Curry (3-10 straight up, 5-8 against the spread) but remains hopeful that Curry will return from his foot injury in time for the start of the postseason. The Warriors are 45-19 SU with Curry in the lineup, including wins in two of their three meetings with the Suns when Curry was active.

Curry Struggling vs. Suns

More alarming for the Suns: Curry hasn’t even played well against the West leaders this season. He’s averaging a modest 22.7 points per game while shooting a dismal 32.4% from the floor and 34.1% from deep against Phoenix. His 4.3 assists per game in the head-to-head meetings sufficiently answers the question: “But what about helping in other ways?”

That said, the Warriors made things difficult for the Suns in the same way that they’d present a daunting matchup should these teams meet in the conference finals: Through stout, relentless defense. Phoenix averages better than 115 points per game on the season but managed just 103.5 per contest in four meetings with a Warriors team that has limited all opponents to 105.7 points per game, second-fewest in the West.

Booker has been particularly dismal against Golden State, held to 15.0 points on 28.6% shooting across three meetings. Booker being matched against Warriors super-stopper forward Draymond Green has been a very bad thing for the Suns' leading scorer, who has shot 10-for-40 in the last two meetings.

Chris Paul the Difference Maker?

Yet, while Booker (+2800) remains in that weird neutral zone, all alone between the Big Three MVP candidates (Nikola Jokic, Joel Embiid, Giannis Antetokounmpo) and an army of longshots (none lower than +8000), it’s actually Paul (+30000) whose performance will ultimately decide how far the Suns go.

Paul averaged 15.8 points and 8.8 assists while shooting 54.5% in four meetings with the Warriors, and his ability to create shots for just about anyone other than Booker could prove critical if his teammate’s shooting woes against the Warriors continue. Paul hasn’t missed a beat since returning from an extended injury absence, dishing out 35 assists in three impressive wins over the Denver Nuggets, Philadelphia 76ers, and Warriors.

https://twitter.com/NBATV/status/1509392472236986370

As for conference challengers other than the Warriors, you can pretty much ignore them. The Grizzlies have been a wonderful story, but sustaining that level of play over the length of a grueling playoff run with a largely untested roster is a huge ask.

The Dallas Mavericks have also looked good but averaged just 101.0 points over three games against Phoenix (though guard Luca Doncic played in only one of those contests). A healthy Doncic will certainly make a difference, but the Mavericks aren’t a particularly deep team and had all sorts of problems with Booker (23.7 PPG) and Paul (13.0 APG).

Once you get past the top four, the remaining “contenders” all have significant enough flaws that expecting them to handle Phoenix in a seven-game series is folly.

No Sun(s) Block Needed

It would be a different story if there were another Western Conference team proven to be capable of challenging Phoenix for supremacy. But the Warriors are the only club to test the Suns – and despite a closely-fought and largely entertaining season series, it’s difficult to see the Warriors containing Paul sufficiently to beat Phoenix four times.

Jump on that Suns' Western Conference futures number now; as Phoenix runs deeper into the playoffs, those odds will only drop lower.

Where to Bet on NBA Western Conference Futures

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