Suns vs. Mavericks Picks, Predictions: Will Phoenix Overwhelm Dallas Inside?
The Dallas Mavericks’ struggles in the frontcourt might cost them against the Phoenix Suns on Monday. Read on for our Suns-Mavs picks and predictions.
The Mavericks are still the worst team against the spread in the NBA, but at least things seem to be picking up for them. Dallas has now won – and covered – in two of its last three.
The Suns continue to be a wagon, winning seven of their last eight and going 3-1 against the spread in the last four. They’ve managed to do it all without Chris Paul, who has been out since early November.
Here are our Suns-Mavericks NBA picks Monday (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Suns vs. Mavericks Game Info
Date: Monday, Dec. 5, 8:30 p.m. ET
TV: NBA TV
Location: American Airlines Center, Dallas, TX
Suns vs. Mavericks Odds
Suns vs. Mavericks Odds Analysis
When the betting began, Phoenix was a 3.5-point underdog. You can still find that original line over at BetMGM, but at most other books the line is currently 3. DraftKings is the best place to back the Mavericks, offering -105 on the 3-point spread, but hardly anyone has done that. DK reports that 33% of the bets and just 28% of the spread handle is currently on Dallas.
The Over is a hot bet at DraftKings, attracting 80% of the bets and 86% of the handle. Despite that fact, the total has not budged off the number of 221.5 at almost every book. DK is the best shop for the Over, where you’ll pay just -105, while FanDuel has moved the total to 222 and will have the best deal on the Under.
Suns vs. Mavericks Picks
- ATS: Suns +3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
- Over/Under: Over 221.5 (-105 via DraftKings)
- Prop: Deandre Ayton Over 10.5 rebounds (-111 at FanDuel)
Suns vs. Mavericks ATS Pick
Suns +3.5 (-115) ★★★★
Dallas is just 6-15-1 against the spread in all games this season, but 0-10 ATS after a win. The team’s defense has been absolutely atrocious with the exception of Saturday’s win over the Knicks, which saw the Mavs post a 99 defensive rating in what was their second-best showing of the season.
That was against an offense ranked 15th in the NBA and one which has looked significantly worse than that of late. Now, the Mavericks have to try and find a way to stop the second-most efficient offense in the NBA.
One thing I will continue to preach here with the Mavericks is their atrocious frontcourt play. Luka Doncic has single handedly carried them to several wins this season, but this team is missing a backbone outside of him. Phoenix ranks sixth on the glass this year and Dallas is all the way down in 29th. The Mavs are allowing a poor 60.8% shooting on contested looks inside of 10 feet, while also being third-worst in field goal percentage inside of 10 feet on the other end.
Suns vs. Mavericks O/U Pick
Over 221.5 (-105) ★★★★
So, why do I like the Over when I predict the frontcourt battle will decide this one? Well, the Over is 13-9 in Mavericks’ games this season, which ranks fourth in the NBA. It has also cashed in four of the last five, while the Over is 3-1 in the last four Suns’ games.
Dallas has played with a pace rating of at least 102 in two of its last three and has really struggled defensively in the last six. Similarly, Phoenix is 12th in pace over the last four games despite largely lacking in that department and taking its sweet time on offense. There’s been a slight uptick in tempo and offense, and a slight regression on defense for both teams. I like this number.
Suns vs. Mavericks Prop Pick
Ayton Over 10.5 rebounds (-111) ★★★★★
It was absolutely stunning to see the Mavericks out-rebound the Knicks on Saturday, and it’s unlikely that happens again for a long time. At the very least, it won’t happen here against the Suns.
Ayton went for 10 boards on opening night against the Mavs and went for 11 on three occasions when these two teams met in the playoffs last year. We’re talking about a guy who is averaging 12.3 rebounds per game in the last nine and a team allowing 12.3 rebounds per game to opposing centers. This is going to be a rough night down low for Dallas.
Where to Bet on Suns vs. Mavericks Picks
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Suns-Mavericks picks made 10/25/2022 at 1:52 p.m. ET
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