Raptors vs. Heat Player Props & Odds: Predictions for Butler, Adebayo, Barrett
The lowly Toronto Raptors head south to face the Miami Heat in the front end of a two-game series, and we're offering our top Raptors vs. Heat player props based on the best NBA odds.
The Toronto Raptors (25-55) close out what's been a very depressing season with back-to-back games against the Miami Heat (44-36) at the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. Even though Toronto has literally nothing to play for, the Heat are still looking to climb out of the NBA Play-In Tournament odds picture with a win on Friday.
Miami is a 13.5-point home favorite across our best sports betting sites against a Raptors squad that's been struggling all season, with the game set for an 8 p.m. ET tip (Bally Sports, TSN). As the Heat turn their attention to the playoffs, star players Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo need to bring their best in essentially a two-game tuneup series against the Raptors.
To accompany our Nuggets-Spurs NBA player props, here are our best Raptors vs. Heat player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Raptors vs. Heat player props
- Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points (-105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
- Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds (-115 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- RJ Barrett Under 19.5 points (-111 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
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Raptors vs. Heat prop bet predictions
Jimmy Butler Over 20.5 points (-105 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
It hasn't been the best season from Butler by any stretch, but come playoff time the Heat's franchise cornerstone always seems to find his rhythm. In 2023 he helped to take the Heat all the way to the NBA Finals after the team needed to qualify for the playoffs via the play-in tournament.
Could he do the same and bolster Miami's NBA Championship odds in 2024? He'll need to use this matchup against Toronto as a get-right game.
The Raptors are allowing the seventh-most points per outing in the NBA (118.7) and rank just 26th in defensive rating (121.6). They've also been at their worst against wings like Butler, with Toronto allowing the most points per matchup to small forwards (23.96). While Butler is coming off a 12-point showing against Dallas, he's averaging 21.0 points per game and has scored at least 21 in three of his last four.
We're getting nice value on these odds at Betway, likely due to Butler's inconsistent play this season. With the odds at -105, there's a 51.22% implied probability that Butler hits the Over, according to our odds calculator. A $10 wager on this prop would result in a $9.52 profit if Butler scores at least 21.
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Bam Adebayo Over 10.5 rebounds (-115 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Raptors tend to struggle defensively against almost every position. But the two that bully them the most are the positions Miami's All-Stars play.
While Butler is putting up points, Adebayo can be a rebounding machine against Toronto. The Raptors will be down their top two rebounders for this game - Jakob Poeltl (finger) and Scottie Barnes (hand) - and that doesn't bode well for a team that already struggles to clean up the glass.
Toronto is averaging the sixth-fewest rebounds per game (38.8) and the second-fewest defensive rebounds (27.9). As a result, Darko Rajakovic's team is giving up the ninth-most rebounds per contest (41.2) and the third-most offensive rebounds (11.3).
With Adebayo pulling down 10.5 boards per game during 2023-24, he should be able to snag at least 11 against a Toronto team that's giving up the third-most per outing to centers (15.92).
That's the main reason these odds are as short as -115 through Betway, which implies a 53.49% probability that Adebayo secures at least 11 rebounds. If he does, a $10 bet would payout $18.70.
RJ Barrett Under 19.5 points (-111 via Betway) ⭐⭐⭐
Despite the Heat sitting as the No. 8 seed in the Eastern Conference, and likely needing the play-in tournament to officially qualify for the NBA playoffs, they boast one of the league's best defenses. Miami is holding opponents to just 108.5 points per game (fourth fewest) and has registered the fifth-best defensive rating in the NBA (114.9). So Raptors leading scorer RJ Barrett is in for a difficult evening while needing to carry the load with Barnes out.
With the way the Raptors' current lineup is configured, Barrett is set to start at the four-spot, a position Erik Spoelstra's team has been thriving against. Miami allows the fourth fewest points in the NBA to power forwards (21.52) and Barrett does most of his scoring inside the arc. That's where this Heat defense is at its best, holding opponents to the fourth-fewest 2-pointers per game (27.2).
A $10 bet on these -111 odds via Betway pays out $19.01 if Miami can hold Barrett to under 20 points, and there's a 52.61% implied probability the Heat will do just that.
Raptors vs. Heat game info & odds
- When: Friday, April 12
- Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Kaseya Center, Miami, Fla.
- How to watch: Bally Sports, TSN
- Favorite: Heat -14.5 (-115 via Betway)
Raptors-Heat player props made Friday at 11:40 a.m. ET.
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