Nuggets vs. Spurs Player Props & Odds: Predictions for Wembanyama, Jokic, Murray
In the second-to-last game of the regular season, the Denver Nuggets face the San Antonio Spurs with playoff seeding on the line, as we offer our top Nuggets vs. Spurs player props based on the best NBA odds.
The Denver Nuggets (56-24), led by NBA MVP odds favorite Nikola Jokic, still need a win or two to secure their spot near the top of Western Conference standings. They'll try to score one Friday at the Frost Bank Center in San Antonio, Tex., against the San Antonio Spurs (20-60) and NBA Rookie of the Year odds runaway front-runner (and "unofficial" winner) Victor Wembanyama.
With the game set for an 8 p.m. ET tip (Bally Sports, Fubo), the Nuggets are looking to improve their NBA Championship odds with the playoffs right around the corner. Despite Wemby being Wemby, Denver is a 13-point favorite across our best sports betting sites. Can the rookie continue stuffing the box score against Jokic and Co.?
To accompany our Raptors-Heat NBA player props, here are our best Nuggets vs. Spurs player props and NBA picks (odds via our best NBA betting sites; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Nuggets vs. Spurs player props
- Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Nikola Jokic Over 28.5 points (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Jamal Murray Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
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Nuggets vs. Spurs prop bet predictions
Victor Wembanyama Over 3.5 blocks (-110 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
It's too late in the season for Wembanyama to catch Rudy Gobert, the overwhelming leader by the NBA Defensive Player of the Year odds.
But the Spurs' budding star has put himself in a great position to be a favorite for the award next year. He's been blocking shots at an elite level all season and has been a dominant force down the stretch. Wemby leads the league in blocks significantly (3.6 per game, and the next best is 2.4) and he's posted at least seven swats in three of his last four outings.
Since recording a triple-double with 10 blocks on Feb. 12, the No. 1 pick is averaging 4.7 blocks per game, with at least four in 14 of his last 23 contests (60.8%). While the Nuggets boast one of the NBA's best offenses that Jokic leads, they allow 4.9 blocks per game, which ranks outside of the top-10 fewest.
Wemby is averaging 5.3 blocks over three games against Denver in 2023-24. He notched nine during the most recent clash.
With the -110 odds from FanDuel, a $10 wager on Wemby to hit four blocks would lead to a $9.09 profit. This same prop is -115 at our other best sports betting apps, which implies a 53.49% probability Wemby hits the Over, according to our odds calculator.
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Nikola Jokic Over 28.5 points + rebounds (-104 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
For as special as Wembanyama has been during 2023-24, he's not able to carry the Spurs alone. That's why San Antonio's defense has been continuing to struggle.
The Spurs are allowing the sixth-most points per game (118.9) and rank 22nd in defensive rating (119.2). They've been particularly bad inside, where Jokic does the bulk of his work as a scorer. San Antonio is allowing the third most 2-pointers per contest in the NBA (32.3), with opponents shooting 55.4% from inside the arc.
Even with the presence of Wemby in the frontcourt, the Spurs have been prone to big men beating them up. San Antonio allows the second-most points per game in the NBA to centers (26.12), and Jokic isn't just any center.
He's the likely MVP and is putting up 26.6 points per game in 2023-24. He's also coming off a 41-point performance against the Minnesota Timberwolves, his seventh 29-plus-point game over the superstar's last 11 outings. He's putting up 30.9 points per game over that span.
We're going with the Over on Jokic's points here despite San Antonio also allowing the fourth most rebounds per game to centers in the NBA (15.6). Those rebound issues have led to the Over on Jokic's points + rebounds (40.5) sitting between -120 and -125. We prefer the -104 odds at Caesars on his points, which pays out $19.62 if he scores 29 points. The same prop is -115 at DraftKings, which implies a 53.49% probability of the Over hitting.
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Jamal Murray Over 2.5 made 3-pointers (+165 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
There's an opportunity for multiple Nuggets players to go off against San Antonio's defense, and Jamal Murray is positioned perfectly to be one of them.
With the line on his 3-pointers made set at just 1.5 at our best sports betting sites, the odds are as short as -180, which imply a 64.28% probability he hits at least two. So we're looking at the alternate line at bet365 and banking on Murray cooking a lackluster Spurs perimeter defense.
San Antonio is allowing the most points per game in the league to point guards (26.73) and giving up 3.01 3-pointers to the position per outing in the process. Teams are shooting 37.4% against the Spurs from behind the arc, which is eighth highest in the league. Murray has also been among the most efficient shooters from deep. He's ninth in the league in 3-point percentage (42.4%), and although the Canadian is only hitting 2.4 per game during 2023-24, Murray has knocked down at least four in back-to-back games.
With this being a longer-shot bet, it's only a three-star play and we'd recommend putting just a half unit on this prop. But if Murray is able to pull it off, a $5 bet would bring in an $8.25 profit.
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Nuggets vs. Spurs game info & odds
- When: Friday, April 12
- Tip-off: 8 p.m. ET
- Where: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, Tex.
- How to watch: Ball Sports, Fubo
- Favorite: Nuggets -13 (-110 via DraftKings)
Nuggets-Spurs player props made Friday at 10:20 a.m. ET.
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