Mavericks vs. Suns Game 7 NBA Picks: Was Phoenix’s Dominant Regular Season for Real?

The Phoenix Suns head back home to the Footprint Center for a series-deciding Game 7 against Luka Doncic and the Dallas Mavericks. Can the Suns prove their NBA-best regular-season record was more than a fluke? Keep reading for our Mavericks-Suns picks.

After going 64-18 in the regular season, it’s fair to say most analysts expected more from the Phoenix Suns. Instead, the 36-46 New Orleans Pelicans took them to a Game 6, and the 52-30 Dallas Mavericks have now forced a Game 7.

Each game in this series has gone to the home team, and usually by a boatload of points. The Suns won Games 1, 2, and 5 by seven, 20, and 30-point margins. The Mavericks won Games 3, 4, and 6 by nine, 10, and 27-point margins. With this game headed back to Phoenix, the superficial trends suggest a big win for the Suns. Let’s see if a deeper dive backs that up.

Here are my picks and predictions for Sunday’s NBA matchup between the Mavericks and the Suns (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Suns Game Info

Date/Time: Sunday, May 15, 8 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Footprint Center, Phoenix AZ

Mavericks vs. Suns Odds Analysis

The Suns opened as 6-point favorites for Sunday’s contest, and that’s where they sit across the market now. That said, you can find the Suns as 6.5-point favorites at BetMGM. Phoenix has attracted 58% of the cash on just 53% of the tickets.

Unlike the spread, we’ve seen lots of movement in the totals market. The number opened at 209.5 but has plummeted to 205. Game 7 trends that favor the Under likely account for some of this crash, but the number is getting so low as to be unattractive. Those who like to fade the public should be undeterred — the Over owns 71% of the tickets but only 40% of the cash.

Mavericks vs. Suns Picks

Suns -6 (-110 via DraftKings) ????Under 205 (-110 via FanDuel) ??Jae Crowder Over 10.5 points (-110 via FanDuel) ????

Mavericks vs. Suns Predictions

Suns -6 (-110)

I’m riding the venue-based trends heavily for this series. We’re yet to see an away team score a win, and the home teams’ advantages have only grown increasingly more lopsided as this series has progressed. From Game 5 onward, head coaches Monty Williams and Jason Kidd have been playing chess with their lineups — Williams pivoted away from JaVale McGee and Cameron Payne in Game 5, only for Kidd to adjust by featuring Luka Doncic and Spencer Dinwiddie.

I trust that Williams is the better chess player. His Phoenix Suns have far more tools at their disposal than the Dallas Mavericks. According to FiveThirtyEight, eight Suns with 1,000-plus minutes had positive overall RAPTOR ratings in the regular season. Only five Mavericks can say the same, and one, Tim Hardaway Jr., finds himself on the sideline.

Phoenix has also performed better in two of the crucial four factors during the playoffs — they have a better effective field goal percentage (56.6% to 53.8%) and better offensive rebound rate (27.6% to 22.4%). The Mavericks have an advantage in free-throw rate (28.5% to 23.1%) and turnover percentage (11% to 14.3%), but their advantage in free throws may not stand in Phoenix because of the energized home crowd. Look out for any news about Scott Foster — Chris Paul is 0-for-14 in playoff games officiated by him.

Finally, rest is one last factor to consider. The Suns and Mavericks last played on Thursday, so they’ll have had a full two days of rest before Game 7. The Suns are 11-7 ATS in such situations this year, but the Mavericks are only 7-9 ATS.

Phoenix’s veteran players may benefit more from multiple days off than Dallas’ young core, and the Suns will need big performances from key pieces like Chris Paul and Jae Crowder if they want to advance.

Under 205 (-110)

All the trends for Game 7s point to the Under.

Since 2016, we’ve seen 22 playoff Game 7s. Of those contests, only six have seen Over 205 points. The 2016-17 and 2017-18 Boston Celtics were responsible for two of those. 2021’s series between the Los Angeles Clippers-Mavericks and Milwaukee Bucks-Brooklyn Nets were the only other two. And a pair of matchups, Cleveland Cavaliers-Detroit Pistons in 2018 and Houston Rockets-Oklahoma City Thunder in 2020, went for exactly 206 points.

But there are more reasons to target the Under than just historical Game 7 data. The Suns have kept scoring to a minimum when they get two or three days of rest — the Under is 14-4 in those situations. Likewise, the Under is 39-22 when the Mavericks play an opponent on equal rest. These teams have usually stayed Under this series as it's 4-2 through Game 6.

Sharp bettors would point out that this number has collapsed from where it opened (209.5) and from where it closed before Game 6 (211). Game 5 closed at 216, Game 4 closed at 214.5, and Game 3 at 218. Those contests saw 199, 190, 212, and 197 points, respectively. Scoring has come at a premium with these teams averaging only 93.8 possessions per game this series. 

With everything on the line for both teams, I expect intense defensive play from everyone. We’ll need one side to enter the closing minutes with a sizable advantage to avoid any intentional fouling, and Phoenix will end up in that spot. I would get in now before it gets any lower.

Crowder Over 10.5 Points (-110)

Crowder had no fewer than 11 points heading into Game 5 of this series. He nailed three triples and racked up 11 points in Game 1, sank another three triples and scored 15 in Game 2, made five and scored 19 in Game 3, and only made two but still scored 15 in Game 4. All of those performances would’ve cashed this ticket easily.

The wheels started to come off in Game 5. Crowder got into foul trouble early and shot 1-for-5 from beyond the arc. He finished with exactly three points and fouled out. Crowder started to get back on track in Game 6, but the Suns got blown out and he only played 28:36 minutes. He finished with nine points and made his lone three-point attempt.

The best reason to target Crowder is his consistently solid playoff form. In last year’s playoffs, Crowder averaged 10.8 points per game. The Suns faced elimination only once all playoffs, and Crowder shot 4-for-11 in that Game 6 against the Bucks on his way to 15 points. The year before that, he averaged 12 points per game for the Heat. He shot 3-for-9 for 12 points the only time they faced elimination, Game 6 of the NBA Finals against the Los Angeles Lakers.

Although Crowder’s points line sits at 10.5 across the market, the juice varies depending on what book you visit. DraftKings has this line all the way down at -125, so we’re getting a solid deal with this line at -110 over at FanDuel.

Where to Bet on Mavericks-Suns Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel SportsbookCaesars SportsbookDraftKings SportsbookPointsBetBetMGM

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Mavericks-Suns picks made on 5/14/2022 at 137 p.m. ET