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Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks reacts to a missed basket while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena.
Luka Doncic of the Dallas Mavericks reacts to a missed basket while playing the Detroit Pistons at Little Caesars Arena. Photo by Gregory Shamus/Getty Images/AFP.

The Dallas Mavericks visit the Denver Nuggets on Tuesday in a battle of NBA Finals hopefuls from the Western Conference. Check out our top Mavericks-Nuggets NBA picks based on the latest odds.

A pair of formidable Western Conference foes will square off in a marquee matchup on Tuesday, with the Dallas Mavericks traveling to face the Denver Nuggets.

Dallas is 12-11 and coming off back-to-back wins, including a 130-111 victory over the Phoenix Suns on Monday. Denver is 14-9 after going 0-2 on a recent road trip. The Nuggets are hoping a return to home will be just what the team needs to get back on track.

Here are our top picks for the Mavericks-Nuggets NBA matchup (odds via BetMGM; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Game Info

Date: Tuesday, Dec. 6, 10 p.m. ET
Location: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Odds Analysis

Despite the recent form from both teams, Denver opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The betting market has since moved the line to a 5-point spread for good measure. The movement makes sense with 61% of the spread tickets and 72% of the handle on the Nuggets.

The total hasn't moved much, with most sportsbooks hanging a 222.5 or a 223 ever since it opened. Currently, 60% of the handle and 74% of bets have been on the Over.

Check out our top sports betting sites in Colorado.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Pick

Mavericks +5.5 (-115) ★★

The Mavericks might be on the second night of a back-to-back set, but they're playing extremely well lately, and their injury report is clean. Dallas thumped the Phoenix Suns while notching a 29-point win as a 3.5-point favorite on Monday. That followed an impressive 121-100 victory over the New York Knicks as a one-point favorite on Saturday.

The Mavericks are a league-worst 7-15-1 against the spread, and they're 3-7 ATS away from home on the season. But perhaps that record is starting to regress positively, as the Mavs have covered in three of their last four outings.

My projections make Denver a slight favorite, but the current spread is giving the home team too much credit. Nobody is playing better than Luka Doncic, who's leading the league while averaging 33.4 points per game. The MVP front-runner has scored 30-plus points in four consecutive contests, and he's certainly capable of keeping the Mavs within striking distance on his own.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets Best Odds

BetMGM (-115)

Mavericks +5.5 (-115)Mavericks +5 (-110)Mavericks +5 (-110)Mavericks +5 (-110)Mavericks +5 (-107)

The consensus spread for this Western Conference showdown is Denver -5, but this game illustrates the importance of shopping around. Bettors wanting to lay the points with the favorite would be wise to take the -107 juice on the 5-point spread at PointsBet for the best price.

If you're aiming to take the underdog along with us, BetMGM is the place to go. That book offers the hook, though you'll need to eat the -115 juice. Don’t worry, though, as Unabated’s line calculator confirms it's better to take the juiced 5.5-point spread at BetMGM rather than the 5-point line at -110 being offered through Caesars, FanDuel Sportsbook, and DraftKings Sportsbook.

Where to Bet on Mavericks-Nuggets Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

Mavericks-Nuggets picks made 12/6/2022 at 11:56 a.m. ET.