Heat vs. Celtics Game 3 NBA Picks: Boston Looks to Pull Ahead at Home

Through two games of the Eastern Conference Finals, the Miami Heat have outscored the Boston Celtics in a single quarter. Does Miami have enough offensive firepower to bounce back after getting blown out in Game 2? We break down Game 3 with our Heat-Celtics picks.

The Celtics (9-4 ATS, 6-7 O/U) lost Game 1 of these Eastern Conference Finals outright, but they actually won three of the four quarters in the series-opener. Many felt that Game 2 would trend much differently than Miami’s Game 1 win. That assumption proved to be correct. The Celtics raced out to a 25-point halftime lead and wrestled home court advantage away in this best-of-seven series. After sitting out Game 1 due to an injury, Celtics guard Marcus Smart fell just one rebound shy of a triple-double in Thursday’s win.

For the Heat (8-5 ATS, 4-9 O/U), Saturday’s Game 3 represents an opportunity to pick up the pieces after suffering their first home loss of the playoffs. Guard Jimmy Butler was the only player who surpassed 15 points in Game 2 for Miami. This result was a far cry from the series-opener in which Butler led a trio of players who scored 17 or more points. Game 2 also saw the Heat give up a 50% shooting clip from beyond the 3-point arc. That performance hardly resembled the team’s body of work over the full season as the best 3-point defense in the NBA. 

The following offers my NBA betting picks and predictions for Saturday’s Eastern Conference Finals Game 3 between the Heat and Celtics (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook and BetMGM; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Heat vs. Celtics Game Info

Date: Saturday, May 21, 8:30 p.m. ETTV: ABCLocation: TD Garden, Boston, MA

Heat vs. Celtics Odds

Heat vs. Celtics Odds Analysis

The Celtics have emerged as the preferred side ahead of Saturday’s Game 3 matchup. Oddsmakers initially tabbed Boston as a 5.5-point favorite at home. This opening spread is notable given that it was up to an 8-point swing from the lines for Game 2 in Miami. Interestingly enough, despite the fact that the point spread has increased by a half-point to Celtics -6, just 54% of the handle is backing Boston.

Concerning the total, the NBA betting market initially moved the opening figure of 208.5 down sharply. Buyback has resulted in the consensus Over/Under settling in at 208. Seventy percent of bets and 54% of the money are on the Over.

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Heat vs. Celtics Picks

Spread: Celtics -6 (-110 via FanDuel) ??Total: Over 207.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ???Player prop: Robert Williams Under 7.5 rebounds (-142 via FanDuel) ????

Heat vs. Celtics Predictions

Celtics -6 (-110)

Aside from the lopsided third quarter in Game 1, the Heat have yet to really show that they are even capable of hanging with the Celtics over the long haul. Thus far, the pre-series NBA betting odds that favored the lower-seeded Celtics seem to have been spot-on. Now, Boston will have the added advantage of playing in front of its rowdy home fans for the next two games.

The Celtics seemed to make the proper adjustments in Game 2 from a personnel standpoint. Although center Robert Williams III started the game, Boston really took control when it went with the smaller Grant Williams at the five. His ability to help space the floor as a reliable 3-point shooter paid major dividends offensively.

Now, should bettors expect the Celtics to have another 50% shooting game from beyond the arc? Definitely not. After all, Miami has surrendered 34% shooting to opponents from outside on the season. With that said, Boston actually has an advantage when it comes to creating shots inside the arc as well.

Outside of Butler, the Heat lack proven scorers and offensive creators. The Celtics have a renowned top duo in forward Jayson Tatum and guard Jaylen Brown. At some point, people also need to start taking the scoring abilities of Smart seriously as well. Game 2 saw Tatum score 27 points while both Brown and Smart had 24. Boston is going to be nearly impossible to beat at home if those three replicate those numbers.

As far as general NBA betting trends are concerned, it has seemingly been forever since a playoff game was decided by fewer than six points. In fact, Friday night’s Western Conference Finals Game 2 was the first playoff game in close to a week that had a final margin of fewer than 10 points. Based on how the Heat played two nights ago, it’s hard to argue that the final margin of Game 3 will be within a half-dozen points.

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Over 207.5 (-110)

This Eastern Conference Finals matchup was billed as an old-school, defensive matchup. Based on the defensive stats from both the Heat and Celtics over the course of the season, that billing made sense. However, both Games 1 and 2 flew over NBA betting totals that were simply set too low. Each game cashed the Over by more than a 20-point margin. Shopping the odds across the market is critical for Saturday’s game as a full point of difference exists between sportsbooks.

In most playoff series, it’s reasonable to anticipate higher scoring affairs early on, even between two lethal defensive teams like Miami and Boston. There are always adjustments to be made as teams get more familiar with their opposition. More often than not, those adjustments favor the defenses. 

Miami head coach Erik Spoelstra and Boston’s Ime Udoka are two of the best coaches in the NBA today when it comes to making defensive adjustments. Thus, one has to believe that it's only a matter of time before this series produces a sub-200 total game. That said, Games 1 and 2 did more than just go over the betting total. They FLEW over. 

There are certainly concerns heading into Game 3 about the Heat slowing down a fully healthy Celtics lineup. In addition, one could also argue that Miami is destined for more offensive output from players like center Bam Adebayo and guard Tyler Herro than what they managed in Game 2. The Heat will also welcome point guard Kyle Lowry back, thus adding another offensive playmaker to Saturday’s contest. 

Until we have a game even come close to staying Under the posted betting totals, there is no reason for bettors to shy away from the Over.

Williams Under 7.5 rebounds (-142)

As previously discussed, the Celtics were at their best in Game 2 when they had Grant Williams on the floor as a smaller option at the five. As a result, Robert Williams actually played just 20 minutes in the series-tying victory. He produced very little in terms of statistics during his time on the floor as well. Williams had just five points and four rebounds in Thursday’s contest.

Fast-forward to Saturday and one has to believe that the Celtics will primarily stick with the smaller lineup that fared so successfully two nights ago. This means that Williams could struggle to log many minutes in Game 3. As a result, it makes sense to consider betting the Under on his NBA props rebounding total of 7.5. 

This number has notably been adjusted down a full rebound from Williams’ Game 2 line of 8.5. It is also over two boards below the 9.6 he averaged this season. The fact that the Under also requires bettors to lay upwards of -140 odds is a clear indication of how the market is trending. In addition to the playing time concerns, achieving an eight-rebound game against the Heat is much easier said than done in general.

Where to Bet on Heat-Celtics Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Heat-Celtics picks made on 5/21/2022 at 2:31 p.m. ET.