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Grizzlies vs. Mavericks Odds, Picks, Predictions: Can Dallas Win Without Luka Doncic?

Zachary Hanshew

Last Updated: March 13, 2023 10:52 AM EDT • 2 min 63 sec read.

Kyrie Irving of the Dallas Mavericks shoots as we look at the top Grizzlies vs. Mavericks picks
Kyrie Irving of the Dallas Mavericks shoots over Jaxson Hayes of the New Orleans Pelicans during the fourth quarter of an NBA game at Smoothie King Center on March 08, 2023 in New Orleans, Louisiana. Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images via AFP.

The stars won’t be out Monday when the Dallas Mavericks host the Memphis Grizzlies in a primetime Western Conference showdown.

After losing to the Grizzlies on the road Saturday, the Mavericks will look for revenge in Monday’s rematch at home. Both teams will be missing their superstar guards, as Ja Morant and Luka Doncic will be unavailable for the Grizzlies and Mavericks, respectively. Mavs guard Kyrie Irving is questionable, but there’s a chance he plays and gives Dallas a much-needed offensive boost after sitting out Saturday due to a foot issue.

Who will prevail in this matchup of shorthanded Western Conference contenders?

Here is our best Grizzlies vs. Mavericks pick (odds via DraftKings; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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Grizzlies vs. Mavericks pick

Mavericks ML (+100 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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This is a tough one. Dallas has been terrible against the spread on the road and at home, while Memphis has been bad on the road. This is such a small spread that we can look at ATS history and trends for some guidance in making this pick. The Mavs covered in both prior meetings with the Grizzlies this season, and Dallas is 1-2-1 ATS as the home underdog this season. Memphis is 9-12-1 as the road favorite. 

The Grizzlies are a respectable 6-7 straight up without Morant this season, but all six of the wins came at home. Memphis is 6-1 at home and 0-6 on the road when Morant is sidelined. Memphis is 28-5 straight up at home this season but just 12-21 on the road. Dallas is 22-13 at home. That marks an eight-game improvement over the team’s road record, which is the same as Memphis’ at 12-21.

Memphis is 2-2 over its last four games with Morant suspended, winning both home games and losing both road games. Dallas won and covered in Irving’s first two games with the Mavericks while Doncic watched from the sidelines. Irving is questionable for Monday night after sitting out Saturday, but even if he’s unavailable, we’re taking Dallas. Neither team will have its best player, but each team has been much better in front of its home crowd.

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks best odds

DraftKings (+100)

DraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsPointsBet
Mavericks MLMavericks MLMavericks MLMavericks MLMavericks ML
+100+100-105+100+100

The ML opened at Mavericks -105, and those odds have gotten longer at every book except for BetMGM. We’ll avoid that shop and take our wager to any of our other best NBA betting sites that offer it at +100.

This is a great bet to make early before news of Irving’s availability becomes clear. If he’s good to go, the odds should get shorter and move in favor of the home team.

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks odds

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Grizzlies vs. Mavericks odds analysis

There’s been no movement on this line since it opened at Mavs +1.5. Bettors are split on the sides, with 50% of wagers placed on each team to cover this small spread. Dallas is 29th in the NBA in cover percentage with a horrendous 24-41-3 record, including an 11-21-3 record at home. Memphis is just below .500 in cover percentage, but the team is just 11-21-1 on the road. 

The point total opened at 223.5, and it’s come up by as much as a point depending on the book. Dallas has a 21-13-1 record to the Over, but the team is just 0-2-1 over its last three. Memphis is 13-20 to the Over on the road, and the teams went 1-1 in two matchups this season. Without Morant and Doncic available, the teams could struggle to put up points, but Dallas’ defense has fallen off significantly this season, and Memphis allows 116 points per game on the road compared to just 107.8 at home.

This matchup should hit the Over at such a low total.

Grizzlies vs. Mavericks game info

  • Date: Monday, March 13, 7:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • Location: American Airlines Center

Grizzlies-Mavericks pick made 03/13/2023 at 6:30 a.m. ET.

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Written By:
Zachary Hanshew
Zak is a lucky husband and blessed father of four. He’s been writing about sports since 2018 with prior stops at FantasyPros, RotoWire, and FantasyLabs. In addition to Sportsbook Review, you can find his work at NBC Sports Edge, Yahoo, and OwnersBox. When he’s not writing, Zak can be found playing the guitar, hanging out with his family, coaching his son’s basketball team, or laughing way too hard at old Simpsons episodes.