Bulls vs. Bucks Game 5 NBA Picks: Expect Points Galore in Elimination Game

Chicago faces elimination without star guard Zach LaVine. Will Milwaukee finish the job? Here are our Bulls-Bucks picks for Game 5.

It all seemed to be going wrong for the Bucks heading into the weekend. They lost home-court advantage and went into Game 3 on the road with the series tied at 1-1. On top of that, they were asked to win without All-Star Khris Middleton, who had been injured in Game 2.

Just like that, it all clicked. Milwaukee went on to win the next two games of the series by a combined 54 points and absolutely crushed all hope for the Bulls. Now elimination beckons for Chicago, and it will be asked to stave it off without LaVine, who has been placed into the league’s health and safety protocols.

Here are my picks and predictions for Wednesday's NBA matchup between the Bucks and Bulls (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook, DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on 1-to-5-star scale).

Bulls vs. Bucks Game Info

Date/Time: Wednesday, April 26, 7:30 p.m. ETTV: TNTLocation: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

Bulls vs. Bucks Odds Analysis

No one seems to have any faith in the Bulls here. The underdogs opened at +10, at which point the Bucks were promptly hammered. Bulls backers will now have to lay at least 12 points across the board, with some books like BetMGM even hanging 12.5 points.

The total was initially offered at 219.5, but after four straight games have gone Under, the total has fallen to 218 and even 217.5 at FanDuel and BetMGM.

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Bulls vs. Bucks Picks

Bucks -12 (-106 via FanDuel) ???Over 217.5 (-110 via FanDuel) ????DeMar DeRozan Over 28.5 points (-125 via DraftKings) ????

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Bulls vs. Bucks Predictions

Bucks -12 (-106)

Let's start out with this - the Bulls are not as good of a team without LaVine. Their offense scores 2.7 fewer points per 100 possessions without the superstar's explosive speed and shooting ability on the floor, and Chicago's effective field goal percentage drops from 55% to 52.9% in those minutes.

There are plenty of great things the Bulls have done on defense without LaVine on the court, but overall the fact is that Chicago's been outscored by more points with him off. That's been particularly true in this series, where Chicago owns a -12.1 net rating in the LaVine minutes and a -16 with him on the bench.

That is going to hurt Chicago, as is the fact that Milwaukee has been unstoppable on offense. The Bucks have increased their offensive efficiency in every game this series, going from 92.1 in Game 1 to 107.8 in Game 2, then 113.3 and 117.8 in the two most recent games.

The Bulls have already had a hard time catching up to the Bucks, and it's been all due to the offense. They simply haven't had it in them to score this much, and the only win came thanks to a 40-piece from DeMar DeRozan. There is a significant gap between these teams and even though this number is rather large, I'd still lay it if playing the spread.

Over 217.5 (-110)

This is by far my favorite way to play this game. Sure, the Bulls have struggled on offense. Who wouldn't against this defense? That's not really why I like hitting the Over. I've actually found what I think is a little bit of a hidden edge.

Chicago actually pushes the tempo a little bit more with LaVine on the bench, which would seem to run counter to logic given LaVine loves to push the ball up the floor and is incredibly quick. The Bulls have played at a 101.64 pace in the playoffs with LaVine off the court compared to 100.99 with him on. In the regular season, the pace was 100.17 with him off compared to 99.36 when he played.

That’s a difference of +0.65 and +0.81. While these aren't the largest margins in the world, it's enough to make a difference in this game. The Bucks are pace gods, ranking third in that department during the regular season. We’ve already established their offense is lethal, so if this game speeds up, we should see more than enough scoring to take us to the first Over of the series. This is the shortest number we've had through five games and I recommend buying low.

DeRozan Over 28.5 points (-125)

This one seems obvious and I'm probably going to get in trouble because it doesn't appear I'm being creative enough. With that being said, the numbers simply do not lie here. When LaVine does not play, DeRozan is the man for Chicago.

In the minutes DeRozan has played without LaVine, he's averaging a whopping 32.6 points per 36 minutes. That's an increase of 4.8 points per 36, and it's worth noting he takes about 3.9 more shots on average as well. He may only have one game of 29 or more points in this series, but he's going to be called upon here to take all the shots here for Chicago and play upwards of 40 minutes. He's been a scoring machine all year and he needs to be backed.

Where to Bet on Bulls-Bucks Picks

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Bulls-Bucks picks made 4/26/2022 at 10:03 p.m. ET.