NBA Player Props & Expert Picks Today: Holmgren Swat City in Playoff Debut
Our NBA player props and expert picks for Sunday based on the best NBA odds get you ready for the second day of the 2024 NBA Playoffs.
The opening weekend of the 2024 NBA Playoffs will close with four more first-round matchups on Sunday. And the slate features two of the more intriguing matchups in the opening round.
The Dallas Mavericks are looking for revenge after recent playoff losses to the Los Angeles Clippers, losing 4-2 in 2020 and 4-3 in 2021. The Indiana Pacers and Milwaukee Bucks will face off after plenty of drama between the two teams in the regular season.
Here are our NBA player props and expert picks for Sunday (NBA picks based on odds via our best NBA betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Sunday’s NBA expert picks
- Kristaps Porziņģis Under 19.5 points (-118 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Derrick Jones Over 0.5 3-pointers (-112 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
- Damian Lillard Under 7.5 assists (-115 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 blocks (-119 via BetRivers) ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Sunday’s NBA schedule and odds
- Heat vs. Celtics | Spread: Celtics -13.5 | Total: 208.5
- Mavericks vs. Clippers | Spread: Mavericks -1.5 | Total: 223.5
- Pacers vs. Bucks | Spread: Pacers -1.5 | Total: 231.5
- Pelicans vs. Thunder | Spread: Thunder -8.5 | Total: 214.5
NBA player props
Kristaps Porziņģis Under 19.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
As I wrote this pick, the under moved from -115 to -118, indicating it’s on the right side. The rest of our best sports betting sites have already moved this points prop down to 18.5.
With a projection closer to 17.5 points, there is value in fading Kristaps Porziņģis in a matchup against Heat center Bam Adebayo. He only cleared this mark once in three head-to-head matchups with the Heat.
I would pay up to -130 juice for Under 19.5 points, but look for other avenues to bet against Porziņģis if FanDuel drops this line to 18.5.
Best odds: -118 via FanDuel
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Derrick Jones Over 0.5 made 3-pointers ⭐⭐⭐
In a matchup featuring superstars Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving, I’m betting on Mavericks forward Derrick Jones to hit a 3-pointer. In fairness, it’s easy to envision him hitting a kick-out triple off a pass from one of the two Dallas stars.
Jones has hit a 3-pointer in 58% of his games this year, averaging 1.1 triples per contest. He has knocked down one outside shot in seven of his previous 10 matchups. Given their attention to Luka and Kyrie, the Clippers will live with someone like Jones getting decent looks.
With the rest of the market at -120 for this wager, I am taking this Over at -115 or better.
Best odds: -112 via DraftKings
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Damian Lillard Under 7.5 assists ⭐⭐⭐⭐
With Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined, point guard Damian Lillard will shoulder more of the burden for the Bucks. But that should be more from a scoring perspective and less as a facilitator.
The best sportsbooks, such as Pinnacle, charge as much as -150 for this Under. That’s because Lillard is projected for six dimes and has only cleared this mark in 37% of his games with the Bucks. He has done so once in six matchups against the Pacers.
With the market overreacting to Lillard’s props, I’m comfortable taking this Under at -130 or better.
Best odds: -115 via DraftKings
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Chet Holmgren Over 1.5 blocks ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
At least in one prop market, we are getting a discount on Chet Holmgren in his playoff debut. Due to his defensive production, Holmgren was the biggest Rookie of the Year odds contender all year. He will prove that on Sunday.
Holmgren cleared 1.5 blocks in 66% of his games this season, averaging 2.3 per game. He swatted multiple shots in all three matchups against the New Orleans Pelicans, who tend to put more pressure on the rim than most.
This Over is priced as high as -142 at Caesars, so grab this discount at BetRivers before tipoff.
Best odds: -119 via BetRivers
NBA player props made Saturday at 11:05 a.m. ET.
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Related pages
- Best Live Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)
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