🏀 NBA Player Props Today: NBA Playoffs Best Bets & Picks for Friday, May 1
📡 SBR Edge: Houston Has a Problem - And It's LeBron from Deep
My NBA player props today feature James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-135), as he has attempted 8+ three-pointers in six of his last eight meetings with the Raptors. My next NBA best bet is LeBron James Over 1.5 three-pointers made (+118). He should bounce back today after missing 12 straight 3-pointers across the last three games. I wrap up my top picks with Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made (+128), as he has gone over this line in seven of his last nine matchups against the Magic.
🏀 Best NBA player props today: May 1
See all of our experts' NBA picks based on the latest NBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | 💡 Best odds | ⚖️ Bet size | 🧠 Why I'm making this bet |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made | -135 via BetMGM | 1.35u -> 1u | Has 8+ 3PA in 6 of last 8 games vs. TOR |
| LeBron James Over 1.5 three-pointers made | +118 via FanDuel | 0.85u -> 1u | Should bounce back after missing 12 straight 3PT |
| Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made | +128 via FanDuel | 0.78u -> 1u | Has gone Over in 7 of last 9 matchups vs. ORL |
Total wagered: 2.98 units | Max profit: 3 units
💰 Best NBA player prop bet today
The Cavaliers have the fourth-shortest odds to win the NBA Finals.
James Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made (-135) at Raptors
I've been betting Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers every game in this series, and it has cashed in four of five.
This is a solid bet because he has no trouble getting open against the Raptors' wing defenders, which is why he has attempted eight or more 3-pointers in six of his last eight matchups against Toronto.
Harden has been known as a choker throughout his career, so expect him to be extra aggressive in a closeout game. BetMGM lists Harden Over 2.5 three-pointers made at -135, but this bet is good up to -160 on the best sports betting sites.
🔥 More NBA player prop picks
Follow all of our NBA analysis and expert predictions this season.
LeBron James Over 1.5 three-pointers made (+118) at Rockets
Sometimes the most profitable bets are the scariest. James has missed 12 three-pointers in a row across the last three games, so what do we do now? Bet him Over 1.5 today at plus money.
James is a 34.8% career 3-point shooter, and the market is overreacting to his poor shooting lately, which has been mostly noise. The Lakers don't want to go to a Game 7 against this young, athletic Rockets team - James will be aggressive today. His Over 1.5 three-pointers is +118 at FanDuel, but I would play this up to +100 on the best NBA betting sites.
Duncan Robinson Over 2.5 three-pointers made (+128) at Magic
Similar to my Harden bet, Robinson has been printing cash for me in the playoffs. He has hit this prop in four of five games in this series and, over a larger sample, has made three or more 3-pointers in seven of the last nine head-to-head meetings.
The Pistons are in a win-or-go-home situation - same as Wednesday when he made three triples - and Robinson making shots will be key for the -168 moneyline favorite to stay alive. His Over 2.5 three-pointers is +128 at FanDuel, but I'd be comfortable playing this up to +110 on the best sports betting apps.
🚀 Best NBA parlay picks today
A solid way to tell if your parlay has value is to check prices at other sportsbooks. Bet365 offers this two-legger at +390, while FanDuel lists the same SGP at +291. While these bets are negatively correlated, with such a low spread, the payout shouldn't be so high.
💵 Best NBA parlay bet today
- LeBron James Over 1.5 three-pointers made
- Rockets -3.5
Best odds: +390 via bet365 (0.26u -> 1u)
💡 More NBA expert picks tonight
- NBA player props tonight
- Pistons vs. Magic player props
- Lakers vs. Rockets player props
💵 My betting record for NBA picks
All NBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since Feb. 10.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 154.5-172-4.5 | -10 units ❌ | -3% ❌ |
| Player props | 137-121-4 | -9.02 units ❌ | -2.9% ❌ |
| Parlays | 13.5-46-0.5 | -0.09 units ❌ | -0.5% ❌ |
| Spreads | 2-3 | -0.8 units ❌ | -13.1% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
My betting record in the NBA postseason
Tracked since April 14.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 46.5-45-0.5 | +7.34 units ✅ | 10.4% ✅ |
| Player props | 38-22 | +10.51 units ✅ | 18.3% ✅ |
| Parlays | 5.5-18-0.5 | -0.78 units ❌ | -11.7% ❌ |
| Spreads | 1-3 | -2.3 units ❌ | -52.5% ❌ |
| Totals | 2-2 | -0.09 units ❌ | -4.1% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting NBA player props today
I'm following two trends and bucking one today because it's time to buy low on James.
He hasn't made a 3-pointer in either of his last two games, which is pretty unlikely for an average but high-volume 3-point shooter. While the books think it's unlikely that James will hit two or more 3-pointers, my projections see it as a 50-50 proposition.
The other two bets - Harden and Robinson - are still undervalued despite both hitting consistently lately.
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