Sparks vs. Fever Prediction, Odds & WNBA Best Bet Tonight: June 26
Even without Caitlin Clark in the lineup, the Indiana Fever are favored in tonight’s matchup against the Los Angeles Sparks. Our Sparks vs. Fever prediction still leans toward the home team, as Indiana looks to stay competitive and maintain its WNBA championship odds despite Clark’s absence.
Tipoff is set for 7 p.m. ET (Prime Video) from Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis with Indiana sitting as a 5.5-point betting favorite.
🔮 Sparks vs. Fever expert picks & predictions
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✅ Moneyline pick: Fever (-225 via BetRivers) ⭐
✅ Against the spread pick: Fever -5.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Over 167.5 (-110 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
👀 Is Caitlin Clark playing tonight?
Fever head coach Steph White told Chloe Peterson of the Indianapolis Star that Clark reported pain to the training staff on Wednesday night and got an MRI on her groin. Clark is now listed as day-to-day and has been ruled out for Indiana's game against the Sparks tonight.
📈 Sparks vs. Fever odds movement
The Fever opened as 10.5-point betting favorites prior to Clark being ruled out. Once Indiana's star was confirmed to be missing the game, the line shifted significantly with the Fever now -5.5 at home. Similarly, the game total saw serious movement due to Clark's absence with it dropping from 171.5 to 167.5.
🆚 Who will win Sparks vs. Fever?
✅ Moneyline pick: Fever will win (-225 via BetRivers)
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The Fever (7-7) have been inconsistent throughout the season, and losing Clark for the second time surely won't help. Fortunately for them, this is a matchup they can survive without the reigning WNBA Rookie of the Year.
The Sparks (4-11) are among the worst teams in the W, and their defense is full of holes, allowing the third-most points per game in the league (87.3). Between Aliyah Boston, who's on a heater, and lead guard Kelsey Mitchell, Indiana has enough on offense to exploit L.A.'s many defensive holes.
💰 Sparks vs. Fever prediction & WNBA best bet
📈 Over 167.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -110 via Caesars ($10 pays $9.09)
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The Sparks are nothing if not entertaining. They play defense like it's optional but have the offense to make things interesting at times. While they have one of the worst records in the league, they also happen to be the best Over team in the W (9-5-1). Los Angeles has hit the Over in five of its last six.
Indiana's defense has improved this year, but it's still outside of the top five in both defensive rating (101.1) and points allowed per game (79.3), while allowing the second-highest 2-point percentage in the league (50.7%). With Kelsey Plum, Dearica Hamby, Rickea Jackson, and Azura Stevens, Los Angeles is equipped to put up points. Stevens (1.3) and Hamby (1.3) are both top 10 in offensive win shares, and Plum is No. 4 in points per game (20.4).
And even though Indiana won't have Clark, it's poised to put up points. The Sparks have the third-worst defensive rating (110.3) in the league, allow the second-most 3-pointers (9.3), and the highest 2-point percentage (52.4%). Meanwhile, the Fever are second in points per game (84), and even without Clark they still have three players that are top 20 in offensive win shares - Boston (2.3), Mitchell (1.0), and Lexie Hull (1.1).
👀 Star player prop to watch
🌡️ Aliyah Boston Over 15.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
📊 Best odds: -102 via FanDuel ($10 pays $9.80)
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Although Clark is the former No. 1 pick who gets all the buzz when it comes to the Fever, it's Boston who ranks top three in PER (26.7) and offensive win shares (2.3), and leads the league in offensive rating (129.2). She's shooting a league-best 61.7% from the floor, which is just an absurd number.
With the Fever's star big doing most of her damage inside, she should have no issues scoring against a Spark defense that allows the highest 2-point percentage in the W. Boston, who's averaging 15.9 points per game, has gone Over 15.5 in three straight outings and is averaging 24.6 PPG over that stretch. This is my favorite Sparks vs. Fever prediction bet, and I'd bet Boston's Over up to 16.5.
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