Aces vs. Liberty Prediction: WNBA Picks for Tuesday, June 30
The WNBA's Commissioner's Cup final pits the two biggest powers in the W against each other tonight as the New York Liberty and Las Vegas Aces meet at 7 p.m. ET (Prime Video) from Barclays Center in Brooklyn.
While New York enters as a 6.5-point betting favorite, my Aces vs. Liberty prediction projects Las Vegas to keep things close with the Commissioner's Cup on the line, even with A'ja Wilson out.
🏀 Aces vs. Liberty prediction: WNBA picks
See all of our experts' WNBA picks based on the latest WNBA odds.
| 💰 Pick | ⚖️ Bet size (units) | 🧠 Why I bet this |
|---|---|---|
| Aces +6.5 (-110 via Caesars) | 1u → 0.91u | The Liberty have failed to cover in five of their last six games |
| Under 173.5 (-108 via DraftKings) | 0.5u → 0.46u | Las Vegas has hit the Under in four of its last six games |
| Jackie Young Over 21.5 points (-123 via DraftKings) | 1u → 0.81u | With Wilson out, Young will have a bigger offensive load |
Total wagered: 2 units | Max profit: 1.33 units
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🏆 Who will win Aces vs. Liberty?
There's a long history between these two teams, with the Liberty beating the Aces in the 2023 Commissioner's Cup and Vegas later that season avenging the loss by defeating New York in the WNBA Finals. This is the fourth time in five seasons that at least one of these teams has reached the Commissioner's Cup, and while I expect the Aces to keep it close, in the end, I think New York's defense will help it to a four-point win in front of a home crowd.
Score prediction: Liberty 88, Aces 84
💰 Aces vs. Liberty prediction & best bet
Aces +6.5 (-110)
Although the Liberty's lone strong performance as of late came against Las Vegas, New York clearly has problems. Breanna Stewart and Co. have dropped four of their last five, getting outscored by an average margin of 87 to 84.4 during that stretch.
New York has struggled to mesh on offense this season, with Sabrina Ionescu not looking like herself since her return and Satou Sabally still out.
Meanwhile, the Aces have the W's most potent offense - Las Vegas leads the league in offensive rating (112.5) and effective field-goal percentage (55%). Chelsea Gray and Jackie Young can carry the load without Wilson.
🔥 Best Aces vs. Liberty player prop bet
Jackie Young Over 20.5 points (-123)
With Wilson out, the Aces' offense will need to rely more heavily on Young and Gray, with the former poised to provide the most offensive punch. Young is No. 2 on the Aces in offensive win shares (1.8) and usage rate (23.1%) after Wilson.
Her 3-point shooting shooting should help her against this Liberty defense, too. New York is outside the top five in 3-point rate on defense (36.8%).
In her last five games, Young is averaging 21.6 PPG and shooting 48.3% from behind the arc.
🚀 Aces vs. Liberty same-game parlay
For the Aces to keep the Commissioner's Cup close, they need two things to happen. First, they need the Liberty's offense to continue to look clunky, especially Ionescu. Second, they need Young to shine in Wilson's absence.
💵 Aces vs. Liberty SGP picks
- Aces +6.5 (-112)
- Under 173.5 (-108)
- Jackie Young Over 20.5 points (-123)
Best odds: +490 via DraftKings (0.2u -> 0.98u)
💵 My betting record for WNBA picks
All WNBA picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 8.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 49-59 | +0.92 units ✅ | 1% ✅ |
| Game picks (spread/ML) | 17-10 | +5.10 units ✅ | 18.9% ✅ |
| Over/Under picks | 14-13 | -0.17 units ❌ | -0.6% ❌ |
| Player props | 14-15 | -2.55 units ❌ | -8.8 % ❌ |
| Parlays | 4-21 | -1.47 units ❌ | -25.8% ❌ |
📊 Live Aces vs. Liberty odds
📺 How to watch Aces vs. Liberty
- Date: Tuesday, June 30
- Tipoff: 7 p.m. ET
- Location: Barclays Center (Brooklyn)
- Streaming: Prime Video
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