US Open Predictions 2026: Picks, Best Bets at Flushing Meadows

I’m coming off my most profitable Grand Slam of the season, where I cashed the pre-tournament Wimbledon Men’s champion and the long shot winner in the Women’s Draw at +2500 odds. I’m back to make similar US Open predictions for the final Major of the tennis season.

While the return of Carlos Alcaraz for his first tournament since April and Jannik Sinner’s withdrawal has stirred things up in the men’s draw, I’m also backing someone outside the top four favorites as the winner on the women’s side. And my favorite prop wager takes a look at a market focused specially on seeded players.

🎾 US Open predictions 2026

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Total wagered: 3.1 units | Max profit: 28.71 units

🏆 US Open men's pick: Rafael Jodar (+1300) 

In an era that was largely dominated by the “Big Three” of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal, and Novak Djokovic for two decades, it may not be surprising that one needs to go back to 2014 to find the last time the four Grand Slams had four different men’s winners. But after Carlos Alcaraz, Alexander Zverev, and Jannik Sinner won the first three Majors this year, a fourth different winner is precisely what I’m calling for.

The US Open has provided the most parity of all Grand Slams on the men’s side, with three first-time Major winners in the last six years. Jodar has shown incredible consistency as the only man on the ATP Tour to have won multiple matches at each of his previous 10 events as of mid-August. He also came two matches away in Montreal from breaking a 41-year-old ATP record for the shortest time span between breaking the top 100 and the top 10.

🏆 US Open women's pick: Noami Osaka (+1200) 

Two of Naomi Osaka’s four Major titles have come at the US Open, where her powerful serve and groundstrokes give her a massive advantage. Following her second win in 2020, she didn’t advance past the third round at the US Open for three years, but broke through again with a semifinal appearance in 2025.

Osaka recently re-entered the top 15 in the WTA rankings after improving her Grand Slam results in each of the first three tournaments this year. 

With the world No. 1 losing before the quarterfinal at three consecutive WTA-level events for the first time since 2019, it opens an opportunity for Osaka to turn back the clock with her third US Open victory of her career.

🎯 Best US Open prop bet: Under 24.5 women's seeds to make it through Round 1 (-140)

DraftKings is offering an O/U on the number of seeded women’s players to make it through the first round, with the Over of 24.5 at even money (+100), and the Under juiced to -140 (58.33% implied odds). That number matches last year’s results, when seeded players went 24-8 in the first round.

Last year, few seeded players won with ease, as even No. 3 seed Coco Gauff, No. 11 Karolina Muchova, No. 17 Liudmila Samsonova, and No. 29 Anna Kalinskaya struggled in three-set victories. I’ll give this wager another look when the draws come out, but the US Open always does well to pack the first round with intriguing matchups.

🎯 Best US Open long shot pick: Felix Auger-Aliassime (+3000)

Carlos Alcaraz is playing his first tournament since April, and Jannik Sinner is out with a knee injury. With those two players combining for 11 of the last 13 Grand Slam titles, it sounds like a great opportunity to back a long shot on the men’s side.

Auger-Aliassime may not be getting the pre-tournament respect he should as the No. 3 seed. The quick hard courts suit his style, and the US Open is the only Major where he has made multiple semifinal appearances. This is also just the second year where the Canadian has reached the quarterfinal or better in consecutive Grand Slams, so the momentum is high for him to break through for his best-ever Major result.

💡 How I'm betting US Open 2026

Normally I invest more than one unit on an outright winner if they are a short enough favorite, which usually only qualifies for Carlos Alcaraz, Jannik Sinner, or Aryna Sabalenka. But since I am reaching a bit more for players with longer odds on both the men's and women's sides, I'm happy to limit those wagers to one-unit plays.

One of my favorite props to wager on in any Grand Slam is a player to win their quarter. There are no such props available since the draws have yet to come out, but once they do, I'll be curious to see what odds surface for Ben Shelton and Alexandra Eala to reach the semifinals. 

Lastly, there will be plenty of bettors backing Coco Gauff and Jessica Pegula on the women's side, especially after the two just duked it out at the Cincinnati final. But DraftKings gives +200 odds (a one-in-three chance) for an American woman to win the tournament, and that had me looking for a different winner on the women's side.

📆 When does US Open 2026 start?

The first round of the US Open starts on Sunday, August 30. The women's final will take place on Saturday, September 12, and the men's on Sunday, September 13. The tournament starts with 128 players on both sides of the draw and is cut in half after every round.