Sparks vs. Mercury Prediction, Expert Picks & WNBA Odds: Can Phoenix Win Rematch as Big Favorite?
The Phoenix Mercury host the Los Angeles Sparks at Footprint Center on Friday, as we offer our best Sparks vs. Mercury prediction and expert picks based on the best WNBA odds.
It's been a tough month for the Los Angeles Sparks (4-13), who lost budding rookie Cameron Brink (ACL) amid a six-game losing skid. They'll try to right the ship Friday when they face the host Phoenix Mercury (8-8) with tipoff set for 10 p.m. ET (ION) from Footprint Center.
The Mercury are 10-point favorites to beat the Sparks across our best sportsbooks, though they're still dealing as relative long shots by the latest WNBA championship odds. Meanwhile, the Sparks need a miracle to make the playoffs at this point after losing nine of their last 11 games.
Sparks vs. Mercury expert picks
Pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale; odds via our best sports betting sites.
- Mercury -9.5 (-110 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Mercury Over 88.5 points (-104 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
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Sparks vs. Mercury predictions for Friday
Mercury -9.5 ⭐⭐⭐⭐
The Mercury are a tough team to wrap my head around. They've won half their games this season, often beating some of the best teams in the WNBA, but they haven't won more than two games in a row since mid-May.
That said, they've survived a brutal schedule of late, playing one of the league's five best teams in six of their last eight games in June. The lone exceptions? The Dallas Wings and these very Sparks.
Phoenix crushed Los Angeles by 21 points when these teams last played on June 2, and that was before the Sparks lost Brink for the season. That loss was also before L.A.'s current six-game losing streak, with all but one of those losses coming by at least nine points.
The Sparks have found their way back in the fourth quarter in some of those games to make the final score respectable, but they're getting walloped every time they step onto the court. If the Mercury can make their threes against one of the worst defenses in the W, they'll win this one handily.
Best odds: -110 via BetMGM
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Mercury Over 88.5 points ⭐⭐⭐⭐
This bet is awfully related to the last bet, as a high-scoring game from the Mercury would go a long way toward covering a sizable number.
This particular wager specifically targets the Sparks' struggling defense, which has allowed at least 93 points in both full games without Brink on the court. Yes, both came against the New York Liberty, but Phoenix has also cleared this total in three of its last five games with another 87-point performance in that stretch.
The Mercury scored 87 points when these teams met earlier this month, and Brink played 25 minutes with two blocks in that one. Without her on the court, I love Phoenix's chances of upping that total at these -104 odds from FanDuel, which imply a 50.98% probability with a $9.62 profit on a $10 wager, per our odds converter.
Best odds: -104 via FanDuel
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Sparks vs. Mercury odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phoenix Mercury | -10 (-110) | -9.5 (-110) | -9.5 (-110) | -10 (-110) | -10 (-110) |
| Los Angeles Sparks | +10 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) | +9.5 (-110) | +10 (-110) | +10 (-110) |
Sparks vs. Mercury game info
- When: Friday, June 28
- Tip-off: 10 p.m. ET
- Where: Footprint Center (Phoenix)
- How to watch: ION
- Favorite: Mercury -10 (-110 via bet365)
Sparks-Mercury predictions made Thursday at 7:15 p.m. ET.
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