Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal Prediction, Picks & Odds: Masvidal the Favorite Between UFC Fighters
Nate Diaz and Jorge Masvidal will share the ring instead of the Octagon on Saturday in Anaheim, Calif., for a boxing match scheduled for 10 rounds or less, and we have you covered with our Diaz vs. Masvidal prediction based on the odds from our best boxing betting sites.
Over four years after they last squared off, Diaz and Masvidal now meet in the ring at 175 lbs. instead of the Octagon. The pair first clashed at welterweight (170 pounds in MMA) back in late 2019 at UFC 244, where Masvidal handily got the better of the striking exchanges, and his hand was raised by a doctor's stoppage after three rounds.
The 39-year-old Masvidal then dropped four straight, ending with a decision loss to Gilbert Burns in April 2023 before he announced his retirement from MMA. He now takes the ring nearly 20 years after his first and only sanctioned boxing match, a four-round decision he won back in 2005.
Diaz, by comparison, ended his UFC stint with a submission win over Tony Ferguson at UFC 279 in September 2022 and made his pro boxing debut opposite Jake Paul in August of last year. The 39-year-old native of Stockton, Calif., fell to the younger Paul with a unanimous decision after 10 rounds.
Diaz vs. Masvidal prediction and pick
(Odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
- Fight prediction: Masvidal moneyline (-227 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Diaz vs. Masvidal fight analysis
In a battle of two combat sports vets who are both long in the tooth, I'm siding with he who's a little less shopworn.
Granted, Masvidal ended his MMA career on a four-fight skid and boasts nearly 20 more cage fights on his resume than Diaz, but anyone familiar with their UFC stints will know the latter has slowed far more than the former. Long gone are the days when Diaz took the fight to his foes and overwhelmed them with oodles of combinations and superhuman cardio.
If his dates with Paul, Masvidal, and Leon Edwards are any indication, today's Diaz has dropped his patented high-volume boxing attack of old in favor of a mixed bag of gamesmanship, potshotting, and the occasional Stockton slap.
Masvidal, on the other hand, remains a cagey and clever boxer who defended over 60% of the opposition's significant strike attempts over a decade-long UFC stint. Furthermore, "Gamebred" landed more than double the strikes than Diaz in their 2019 clash at Madison Square Garden, a margin that would only have widened had the doctor not stepped in. All this to say, I expect Masvidal to produce an ersatz replica of his last pro victory and steadily outland Diaz en route to a dub.
The 39-year-old Masvidal enters the matchup a comfortable favorite, with the moneyline on a straight-up win ranging from -270 to -227 as of the very early hours of Thursday morning, depending on which of our best sportsbooks you choose.
Prediction: Masvidal moneyline (-227 via BetMGM) | Implied probability: 69.42%
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Diaz vs. Masvidal best bet
Despite the official sanctioning and professional designation of Saturday's boxing match, bettors will be hard-pressed to find much in the way of prop and round-related lines.
With fight night just a couple of days away, it's unlikely we'll see such betting lines trickle in, but if they do, a Masvidal win by decision is certainly worth considering.
Rarely one to fight with a sense of urgency, the Florida native went the distance in over half his 35 MMA victories and in 13 of 17 career losses, while Diaz remains exceptionally durable, having fallen by TKO just twice in 34 professional MMA contests.
Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal odds
Odds via BetMGM as of Thursday.
| Diaz | Method of victory | Masvidal |
|---|---|---|
| +200 | Win outright | -227 |
| N/A | Win by KO/TKO/DQ | N/A |
| N/A | Win by unanimous decision | N/A |
| +1200 | Draw | +1200 |
Nate Diaz vs. Jorge Masvidal tale of the tape
| Nate Diaz | Jorge Masvidal | |
|---|---|---|
| 39 | Age | 39 |
| 6-foot-0 | Height | 5-foot-11 |
| 175 lbs. | Weight | 175 lbs. |
| 76" | Reach | 74" |
| 0-1 (21-13 in MMA) | Record | 1-0 (35-17 in MMA) |
Diaz vs. Masvidal fight info
- When: Saturday, July 6 at 9 pm ET (main card)
- Where: Honda Center, Anaheim, Calif.
- How to watch: PPV, DAZN, UFC Fight Pass
- Favorite: Masvidal -227 (via BetMGM)
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Diaz vs. Masvidal pick made Xday at X:XX x.m. ET
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