The NASCAR Cup Series’ fifth road course race of the year will get underway this weekend. Our experts recommend backing one favorite and two underdogs in our Go Bowling at the Glen picks and preview.
Chase Elliott is always the favorite at whatever road course the Cup Series heads to, but he has yet to win at one of these tracks in 2022. However, he finished second in last year’s race at Watkins Glen, trailing only Kyle Larson.
But road courses have produced numerous surprise winners this year. Ross Chastain, Daniel Suarez, and Tyler Reddick all got their first-ever wins on road courses this year. Reddick even got his second-ever win at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway road course two weeks ago. Another surprise winner could steal the show this Sunday afternoon.
Here are our picks for 2022’s Go Bowling at the Glen based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.
Go Bowling at the Glen Info
Where: Watkins Glen International, Watkins Glen, N.Y.
When: Sunday, Aug. 21 at 3 p.m. ET
How to watch: USA Network
Defending champion: Kyle Larson
Go Bowling at the Glen Odds
Go Bowling at the Glen Picks
Who Will Win 2022’s Go Bowling at the Glen?
It’s impossible to handicap a road-course race without discussing Elliott. Sure, he is currently 0-for-4 at road courses this season. But he went 2-for-7 in 2021, 2-for-2 in 2020, and 2-for-3 in 2019. No active driver has more wins at these tracks than Elliott.
That said, it’s true that the field has caught up to him somewhat. Reddick was able to get by him at Road America and score the win. Elliott was never out front at the Indianapolis road course, either. But Elliott was opened at +250 to win at Circuit of the Americas earlier this season. He opened at +450 for that Indianapolis race. The books are starting to overcorrect Elliott’s odds.
This market would look considerably different had Elliott held on to win at Road America, a race in which he led 58% of the laps. Elliott’s ridiculous 30.4% win rate at road courses is miles above the implied odds of 16.7%.
Elliott is trending into value territory, but Chris Buescher is trending out of it. DraftKings opened this line at +3000, but sharps have bid it down to +2500. Other books have Buescher as short as +1600. It makes sense, the RFK Racing driver almost won last weekend’s race at Richmond and he has scored top-10 finishes in the last three road-course races.
Buescher and his RFK Racing teammate, Brad Keselowski, recorded two of the three fastest laps at the Indianapolis road course. Although neither driver finished as high as they could’ve, both should benefit from positive regression should their equipment be as fast on Sunday.
Buescher managed to score a top-10 finish at Indy after getting trapped two laps down due to a mechanical failure. He should have much shorter odds to win, so get this play in before DraftKings adjusts.
Big-name drivers become value plays when their odds get this long. William Byron has won twice already this year, but you wouldn’t know that from this line. While it’s true that Byron doesn’t have the best road-course record to his name, he has yet to win at one of these tracks in any division of the sport. Watkins Glen will present him with an intriguing opportunity.
Byron participated in a tire test at the Glen earlier this summer. He’ll also get a chance to drive the No. 17 Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolet in the Xfinity Series race. Getting that much track time in high-quality equipment should help Byron score his best-ever road-course finish.
Also, Byron looked fast at Indy. He recorded the sixth-fastest lap of the race, better than what Larson and Elliott could do. You can find Byron at +110 to score a top-10 finish, so I recommend splitting a unit between that market and this one.
Where to Bet on the Go Bowling at the Glen
Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:
Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.
BMW Championship picks made on 8/15/2022 at 8:30 p.m. ET.