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AdventHealth 400 Picks, Predictions, Odds 2023: Toyota Getting Plenty of Respect from Oddsmakers

Henry John

Last Updated: May 7, 2023 11:37 AM EDT • 4 min 9 sec read.

Kyle Larson looks on during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway as we make our AdventHealth 400 picks.
Kyle Larson looks on during qualifying for the NASCAR Cup Series GEICO 500 at Talladega Superspeedway. Photo by Sean Gardner/Getty Images/AFP.

Toyota turned Kansas Speedway into its personal playground in 2022. However, Chevrolet has been dominating the early part of 2023. Which trend will prove profitable on Sunday? Decide for yourself where the value lies with our AdventHealth 400 NASCAR picks and predictions.

The NASCAR Cup Series faces a tighter turnaround than normal this week thanks to rain pushing the Dover race to Monday. Nonetheless, it’s full-speed ahead to Kansas Speedway for Sunday afternoon’s AdventHealth 400. Although 1.5-mile ovals are the most common type of track on the circuit, this will only be the second such race of 2023.

The No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota went to victory lane during both times NASCAR visited Kansas in 2022, and there was a different driver behind the wheel for each race. Kurt Busch took the checkered flag in the spring outing, and Bubba Wallace replicated the feat in the fall event.

The Hendrick Motorsports duo of William Byron and Kyle Larson dominated at Las Vegas earlier this year and qualified 1-2 for the AdventHealth 400. However, Toyota’s pedigree at Kansas seems to still be the primary influence when it comes to the betting market.

Here are our best bets and 2023 AdventHealth 400 picks for Sunday’s action at Kansas Speedway (odds via DraftKings and Caesars sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

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AdventHealth 400 picks

  • Outright winner: Kyle Larson (+650 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐
  • Head-to-Head Matchup: William Byron (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐⭐⭐
  • Top-10 Finish: Ty Gibbs (+190 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

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AdventHealth 400 odds

DriverDraftKingsFanDuelBetMGMCaesarsSuperBook
Denny Hamlin+475 ❄️+490+500+500+500
Christopher Bell+475 ❄️+490+500+750 🔥+500
Tyler Reddick+600+600+600+650 🔥+600
Kyle Larson+650 🔥+600+600+550 ❄️+600
Martin Truex Jr.+750+750+800 🔥+650 ❄️+700
William Byron+800+800+750+550 ❄️+800
Ross Chastain+900+900+1000+850 ❄️+1000
Kyle Busch+1600+1600+1600+1500 ❄️+2000 🔥
Bubba Wallace+2000+2000+1600+1600+1800
Ryan Blaney+2500+2500+2500+2200 ❄️+2500
Kevin Harvick+2500+2500+3300 🔥+3000+3000
Joey Logano+2500+2500+1800 ❄️+2200+3000 🔥
Chase Elliott+2800+2800+2000+1200 ❄️+1800
Daniel Suarez+3500+3500+1800 ❄️+3000+3000
Ty Gibbs+5000+5000+4000 ❄️+5000+5000

AdventHealth 400 predictions

Outright winner: Kyle Larson (+650 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐

Although he failed to win at Las Vegas earlier this year, Kyle Larson was one of the two standouts in the only 1.5-mile oval race to date. The No. 5 car was well on its way to victory lane before a late caution flag. Larson seems highly likely to produce another strong showing during the AdventHealth 400, especially with a front-row starting spot. He captured the fall 2021 race in Kansas and boasts a solid track record that goes all the way back to his Chip Ganassi days.

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Larson has logged an outright win, four top-five results, and six top-10 finishes over his last eight Cup Series starts. He was the runner-up in this very race a year ago.

Narrowing the sample size to the last four years, Larson owns an unmatched average driver rating of 120.6. Denny Hamlin and Martin Truex Jr. are the only others with average ratings over 100 dating back to the 2020 season.

Despite how strong Chevrolet and Hendrick Motorsports have been running this season, oddsmakers are leaning into Toyota’s remarkable stats and success at Kansas ahead of Sunday’s race. That's why Larson can be found as high as +650 to win outright.

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Head-to-Head matchup: William Byron (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Tyler Reddick ⭐⭐⭐⭐

It's been a long time since the same car went to victory lane in three consecutive races at a track with three different drivers. Tyler Reddick will get a chance to do just that when he straps into the No. 45 Toyota for 23XI Racing on Sunday.

Reddick did qualify well and will start fifth for the AdventHealth 400. However, his counterpart in this head-to-head matchup will be the driver leading the field to green. William Byron was also victorious during the only other race on an intermediate track this season at Las Vegas. But he's still a +120 underdog to Reddick in this matchup.

The problem with Reddick’s pricing going into this week’s race is that he boasts few positive stats in Kansas. He's registered only two top-10 results and an average finish of 20.1 over seven previous Cup Series starts. He was 30th and 35th in the two races during the 2022 season.

Meanwhile, Byron has been very solid at Kansas, especially in recent years. He's only finished outside of the top 10 once over the last seven races. Comparing the previous six races for both drivers reveals a stark difference in average finish: 9.2 for Byron and 22.0 for Reddick.

There's plenty of reason to back the No. 24 at a healthy plus-money price.

Top-10 finish: Ty Gibbs (+190 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐

Ty Gibbs will be making his second NASCAR Cup Series start in Kansas this weekend. He finished a disappointing 34th last fall while filling in for the injured Kurt Busch. Despite that poor showing, there are lots of other indicators that suggest Gibbs can continue the impressive start to his rookie season.

He's among the highly respected group of Toyota drivers. Based on how Joe Gibbs and 23XI Racing ran in Kansas last year, the No. 54 should be fast on Sunday.

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Gibbs also proved himself capable of running well at Kansas during his time in the Xfinity Series. He won his first start here back in 2021 and finished third in 2022. While he didn’t win the race, Gibbs led 66 of 93 laps and was easily one of the top cars on the track.

Finally, Gibbs qualified well and will start seventh on Sunday. Despite that strong track position, he's considered a relative top-10 long shot. Caesars’ +190 price is simply too good to pass up.

AdventHealth 400 info

Date: Sunday, May 7, 3p.m. ET
Location: Kansas Speedway, Kansas City, KS
How to watch: FS1
Defending winner: Kurt Busch

AdventHealth 400 picks made 5/6/2023 at 8 p.m. ET

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Written By:
Henry John
Henry’s passion for sports dates all the way back to childhood and has ultimately led to a full-fledged career as an analyst and content creator. After getting his start penning fantasy football articles, he forrayed into the betting side of the business in early 2019. His love for sports and statistics proved to be an ideal match with the dedicated research and strategy that handicapping requires. Henry currently specializes in betting analysis and picks for college football, college basketball, and NASCAR. He counts NFL, WNBA, and NBA player props as additional leagues/markets of interest. Henry graduated from SUNY Buffalo in 2021 with a Communication Studies degree and a Psychology minor. A native of the Finger Lakes region in Upstate New York, he and his pup, Harold, have since relocated to Laramie, Wyoming. Thanks to his professional goals within the sports betting industry, there has been a whole lot of steam on the odds for a move to Las Vegas in 2023! Most of Henry’s free time is spent on outdoor adventures, playing chess, snowboarding, or reading a good book. He is also a competitive powerlifter and aspires to qualify for the USAPL Nationals meet within the next 2-3 years.