Mercury vs. Sky Prediction, Picks & Odds for Today's WNBA Game

The Phoenix Mercury put their four-game win streak on the line against the Chicago Sky in a couple of hours. Tip from Wintrust Arena in Chicago is at 1 p.m. ET (ABC). Our Mercury vs. Sky prediction expects Alyssa Thomas, Satou Sabally, and company to keep rolling with a win as 7.5-point betting favorites by the WNBA odds. We also have a +804 same-game parlay lined up.

Mercury vs. Sky prediction

My Mercury vs. Sky best bet: Mercury -7.5 (-112 via FanDuel)

Although still sitting fifth by the WNBA championship odds, the Mercury have been proving over the last week that they need to be taken seriously. There's no better value bet to win it all in the WNBA than Phoenix right now (+2200 at BetMGM) after it just beat the defending champion New York Liberty by eight in Barclays Center.

With Thomas healthy again and teaming up with Sabally, the Mercury are lethal - and they're only set to get better. Four-time All-Star Kahleah Cooper is listed as day-to-day with a knee injury and may be suiting up against the Sky. If Cooper's out there, Chicago will be in even more trouble than it already is against Phoenix.

While Angel Reese has put together back-to-back strong performances, the Sky are still among the worst teams in the W. They have the second-worst average point differential in the league (minus-11) and rank second-last in offensive rating (96.4), defensive rating (110.5), and net rating (minus-14.1).

Meanwhile, second-year Mercury bench boss Nate Tibbetts is making the most of Phoenix's offseason acquisitions of Sabally and Thomas. Both are playing at an All-Star level and rank top 15 in the league in PER, with Sabally No. 1 in defensive win shares (1.1) and Thomas No. 9 in offensive win shares (1.0) while leading the league in assists per game (9.0).

Thanks to those two, I'd take the Mercury to cover as favorites with a spread as big as -9.5 at our best sports betting sites.

Mercury vs. Sky same-game parlay (SGP)

• Mercury -7.5 (-112)
• Under 158 (-110)
• Satou Sabally first team basket scorer (+210)

+804 via FanDuel 

Taking the Under in this matchup is as much about the Sky's offense as it is the Mercury's defense. Chicago is putting up the second-fewest points per game in the WNBA (75.3), shooting just 41.2% from the floor, and averaging the third-fewest 3-pointers per game (6.4).

The trio of Reese, Ariel Atkins, and Kamilla Carodso will have a hard time scoring against a Mercury defense that's No. 4 in defensive rating (99.3) and allowing the fewest field goals per game in the league (26.9).

However, Phoenix isn't a super explosive offensive team, it's just No. 8 in points per game (80.5) and relies heavily on Sabally to do the bulk of the scoring. That's why I'm backing the two-time All-Star to score the Mercury's first bucket.

Mercury vs. Sky odds for today

Mercury vs. Sky live odds

View all WNBA odds

Mercury vs. Sky opening odds

• Spread: Mercury -7.5 | Sky +7.5
• Moneyline: Mercury -345 | Sky +280
• Over/Under: Over 158.5 (105) | Under 158.5 (-115)

Mercury vs. Sky odds betting analysis

While I think the Mercury get the job done, the line has shifted significantly and the public is getting behind the home side now. Our best sports betting apps are almost exclusively trading at +11 now, with 75% of the wagers coming on the home side. 

The total has also shifted, but not as notably. It's trading between 159.5 and 161 now, with 58% of the tickets coming in on the Over.

Mercury vs. Sky latest injuries

Mercury guard Megan McConnell suffered a knee injury a few weeks ago and won't be back for some time. She isn't a major contributor and her absence won't play a major role. 

More significantly, Courtney Vandersloot is out for the year with an ALC injury, suffered earlier in June. The vet was averaging 10.6 points, 3.1 rebounds, 5.3 assists and 1.6 steals prior to her injury.

Mercury vs. Sky trend

Since the beginning of June, the Mercury are 3-0 against the spread as favorites when they're favored by fewer than 14 points.

How to watch Mercury vs. Sky today

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