Liberty vs. Lynx Predictions, Picks & Odds: Can New York Get Revenge Against Minnesota?

Check out our top Liberty vs. Lynx predictions and picks for Friday's WNBA matchup in Minneapolis.

Shane Jackson

Last Updated: August 4, 2023 1:09 PM EDT • 4 minute read

The New York Liberty head to Minneapolis with revenge on their mind when they face the Minnesota Lynx on Friday. Read on for our Liberty vs. Lynx prediction based on the best WNBA odds.

On the surface, the handicap for this game should pretty simple. The New York Liberty suffered an 88-83 home loss to the Minnesota Lynx, and now they get the opportunity to avenge that defeat exactly one week later on the road. After all, New York (20-6) is the superior side and listed as a double-digit favorite over Minnesota (13-14) ahead of tipoff.

But it's a bit more complex than that. The Liberty are playing their third road game this week, and are set to return home on Sunday for a superteam showdown with the Las Vegas Aces. That is another a chance for redemption, after New York lost by 17 in Las Vegas the last time the two powerhouses met.

So, will the Liberty get caught looking ahead, or can they dispatch the Lynx before Sunday's main event?

Here is our best Liberty vs. Lynx prediction (odds via our best sports betting apps; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Liberty vs. Lynx prediction

Over 168 (-110 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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It's tough to tell if the Liberty will get caught looking ahead, but we do know their offense will show up inside Target Center. My model makes the total 172.5 points, suggesting there is some nice value on the Over at 168 points via DraftKings.

These two teams cleared a total of 167 by four points in last week's meeting, and that was with New York only scoring 83 points. The Lynx averaged about 15.2 seconds per possession in that game when they average 14.6 on the year, according to Inpredictable. The Liberty averaged 14.2 seconds per trip, which is right in line with their season average of 14.1.

If we get better efficiency out of the Liberty in the rematch, we should be in store for another offensive showcase. The Liberty rank second in the league with an average of 88.2 points per game this season, while also sitting second in offensive rating at 105.5. That's why the best sports betting sites have set New York's team total at 89.5 in the rematch.

As for the Lynx, they have a team total of 78.5 that I do project them to clear. Minnesota ranks fifth in the league with an average of 84.4 points per game, while also being fifth in offensive rating over that span. Assuming the Lynx can can get in the 80s again on Friday, I like our chances of cashing this Over ticket.

Liberty vs. Lynx best odds

DraftKings (-110)

DraftKings	FanDuel	BetMGM	Caesars	PointsBet
Over 168	Over 168.5	Over 168.5	Over 169	Over 168.5
-110	-105	-110	-110	-115

This total has been trending up ever since the best sports betting sites opened it at 167.5 across the board. Caesars has adjusted the most, setting this line at 169 for those looking for the best place to play the Under.

Because my projection is north of 170, I would be comfortable playing this up to 168.5. After that, it would be best to attack Minnesota's team total as the best sportsbooks haven't accurately priced their recent offensive stretch. I'm projecting a 90-83 win for New York.

Liberty vs. Lynx game info

Date: Friday, Aug. 4, 8 p.m. ET
TV: ION, WNBA League Pass
Location: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

Liberty-Lynx pick made 8/4/2023 at 12:25 p.m. ET.

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Written by:
Shane Jackson

Shane Jackson has been writing for Sportsbook Review since 2022, though his passion for sports, writing, and betting runs much longer than that. He graduated from the University of Kansas with a journalism degree in 2017 and has been covering sports ever since, working for MLB.com, Manhattan Mercury, Lawrence Journal-World, WynnBET, Bet Chicago Sports, BetNOLA, and BetMGM. Jackson cares about creating quality sports betting content above all else. He uses a mixture of models, information, film, analysis, and a top-down approach to locate every best bet shared for SBR. He never gives out a pick that he wouldn’t be willing to spend his own money on. Jackson is focused on finding +EV bets on a daily basis for a variety of sports such as NCAAF, NCAAB, NFL, NBA, WNBA, and MLB. He usually bets on props but is willing to wager on a spread or total when there is an edge. Don’t ask him how many bets he has placed on a typical college football Saturday. Jackson doesn’t care if you follow him on social media, but his Twitter account has info on how you can follow his bets through multiple third-party platforms. He just wants you to read all the great work from the SBR team.