Goodyear 400 Race Prop Picks: Matchups and Top 10s

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to Darlington, South Carolina for a throwback weekend on Sunday. Let's dive in with our Goodyear 400 prop picks.

We’ve seen the stars of the NASCAR Cup Series race at Darlington five times since 2020, leading to a treasure trove of data points to use while attacking the betting market.

Chevrolet heads into the event on a two-race winning streak. Bowties have crossed the finish line first in five of the last seven races.

Here are my top prop picks for NASCAR’s Goodyear 400 at Darlington Speedway in Darlington, South Carolina (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook).

Goodyear 400 Race Prop Picks

Denny Hamlin (-110) vs. Chase Elliott Erik Jones (-105) vs. Chris BuescherTop 10: Erik Jones (+140)

SEE ALSO: Goodyear Picks and NASCAR Preview

Goodyear 400 Race Prop Predictions

Hamlin (-110) vs. Elliott 

This line leans far too much on Hendrick Motorsports' recent string of success. Chase Elliott simply hasn’t been good at Darlington. He owns just two top-five finishes and four top 10s over 10 starts. Hamlin has finished ahead of him seven times, too.

Elliott’s best performance at Darlington came way back in 2014 when he won during his first Xfinity Series start at the track. It’s been all downhill since then, with Elliott managing only a 24th-place result in his next attempt. He has yet to revisit victory lane at Darlington in the Cup Series.

Hamlin ranks second among active drivers with his average finishing position of 7.1, and third among drivers who have made multiple starts at the historic track. That kind of edge means Hamlin should be favored in this market, but we’re getting him at the same price as Elliott instead.

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Jones (-105) vs. Buescher

Chris Buescher has looked solid lately. He won the pole at Dover Motor Speedway and wheeled his No. 17 Ford to an eighth-place finish. He also owns three top 10s in 2021, two more than at this point in 2021. But we’re fading him anyway because Jones has been so much better at Darlington.

Jones ranks third among active drivers with his average finishing position of 10.1 at Darlington. He may no longer possess the Joe Gibbs Racing equipment that helped him rattle off a win and six top 10s over six outings. But we’ve seen enough life out of Petty GMS Racing this year to target him here anyway. Jones already owns one top-five finish and four top 10s in 2022. That’s one more top five than all of 2021.

Jones is 6-2 against Buescher at Darlington. Both of Buescher’s better finishes came last season, including the fall race at Darlington when Jones lost an engine after 264 laps. This market shouldn’t be favoring Buescher, and we're getting great value.

SEE ALSO: Goodyear 400 Expert Picks and NASCAR Bet Slips

Top 10: Erik Jones (+140)

We’ll double down on Jones with this play. That Jones Boy was fantastic for Joe Gibbs Racing at Darlington, never finishing outside the top 10. Jones owned an average finish of seventh place at Darlington before blowing an engine in 2021.

The improvement we’ve seen out of Petty GMS Racing since the merger is enough for me to back Jones with confidence here. The team boasts five top-10 results thus far in 2021. Further, Jones’ average running position of 15th ranks 11th, so we know his equipment is good enough for him to stick around up front.

Of the 36 drivers entered in the Goodyear 400, 17 face shorter odds to score a top-10 finish. That shouldn’t be the case. Let’s hope to more than double our money while targeting Jones at a shockingly friendly price.

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Where to Bet on the Goodyear 400

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Goodyear 400 prop picks made on 5/8/22 at 7:47 p.m. ET