Bahrain Grand Prix Odds, Picks & Predictions 2024: Verstappen Heavy Favorite After Taking Pole

A brand new Formula 1 campaign begins this weekend, so let's dive into the race with our Bahrain Grand Prix picks and predictions based on the odds from our best F1 betting sites.

Max Verstappen looks to pick up where he left off in the first race of the 2024 season after collecting 19 checkered flags last year. He already secured the pole for Saturday's Bahrain Grand Prix, a race he won last year en route to his third consecutive drivers' championship.

Charles Leclerc will start alongside Verstappen on the front row, with George Russell lining up third on the grid.

Fernando Alonso and Aston Martin got off to a hot start last season in an attempt to dethrone Verstappen, but he couldn't sustain that success. Instead, it was slow-starting McLaren - with Lando Norris leading the way - that turned the heat up on Verstappen and Red Bull as the season progressed.

Ferrari and Mercedes are always looming, too. There are two Ferraris in the top five in Bahrain after qualifying, with Carlos Sainz in fourth. Russell also looks strong for Mercedes, but Lewis Hamilton is back in ninth.

Here are our 2024 Bahrain Grand Prix picks and predictions based on the F1 odds for Bahrain International Circuit (odds via our best sports betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Bahrain Grand Prix picks

• Favorite: Max Verstappen (-500 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
• Long shot: Lando Norris (+2900 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
• Prop: McLaren fastest pit stop (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

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Bahrain Grand Prix odds 2024

Odds as of March 1 at 1:20 p.m. ET

Bahrain Grand Prix predictions

Favorite: Max Verstappen (-500 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Those who're familiar with Formula 1 are used to seeing this monster number when it comes to Verstappen’s outright price. His odds shortened even more after qualifying, going from -300 to -500.

While it seems outrageous to set a line so heavily juiced, the fact that the reigning champion won 19 of 22 races last season should explain it all. So, even if you were to absorb the vig from week to week on a Verstappen outright, you would have still been profitable.

However, the fact that he failed to win three races last season means that he isn't a lock to win them all. On top of that, Verstappen has only one win in 10 tries on this circuit. His average finish is 10.8, and he actually hasn't even finished the race five times.

Thankfully, the books give us more creative ways to bet on Verstappen to win, so it’s best to take advantage of those. But if you can find a way to make this outright bet work for you, history tells you it’s the right wager.

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Long shot: Lando Norris (+7000 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐

The first eight races of the season were not kind to Lando Norris, who logged only three points finishes in that span, with five finishes of 13th or worse. He now sits seventh after qualifying in Bahrain.

Things quickly turned around after his fourth-place finish in Austria during 2023, which started a string of 12 straight top-10 results. Of those, six were second-place finishes. He closed out the season with a fifth-place showing in Abu Dhabi.

His track history here is likely driving his odds rather than his success from last season. He has a 9.3 average finish in Sakhir. However, he does have two fourth-place finishes and a sixth-place outing to his credit here.    

Prop: McLaren fastest pit stop (+300 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Much of the late-season success for McLaren came from its work in the pits. The team finished with the third-most points in the overall DHL Fastest Pit Stop standings behind Red Bull and Ferrari. 

McLaren registered three of the top five fastest pit stops of the season and six out of the top ten. They turned the fastest pit stop overall in six races last year and had several inside the top three just fractions of a second off the leader. 

For clarification, this ticket is decided by the team with the lowest total of stationary time in their pits. Time on and off pit road is not factored into this bet.

Who has the pole for the Bahrain Grand Prix?

Qualifying was tight, though eventually Verstappen narrowly bested Leclerc. The three-time defending champion finished with a best time of 1:29.179, with Leclerc just behind at 1:29.407, and Russell rounding out the podium with a time of 1:29.485.

Verstappen sat on the pole 13 times in 2023 while easily cruising to another title. Predictably, he's now the heavy favorite to win the race by the odds, with -500 through DraftKings as the best price.

Previous Bahrain Grand Prix winners

Bahrain Grand Prix info

Date: Saturday, March 2 at 10 a.m. ET
Location: Bahrain International Circuit, Sakhir, Bahrain
How to watch: ESPN
Defending winner: Max Verstappen

Bahrain Grand Prix picks made Wednesday at 1:30 p.m. ET

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