Coca-Cola 600 Expert Picks and NASCAR Bet Slips: Truex Offering Value

The NASCAR Cup Series is off to Charlotte Motor Speedway for the Coca-Cola 600. Read on for our Coca-Cola 600 expert picks and bet slips.

Our NASCAR experts make their picks for the 2022 Coca-Cola 600, including outrights, longshots, matchups, and props (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, and FanDuel Sportsbook).

Coca-Cola 600 Picks

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Coca-Cola 600 Winner

Martin Truex Jr. (+1000 via DraftKings)

The Coca-Cola 600 can become a battle of fuel mileage and equipment durability. Such is the nature of NASCAR’s longest race.

This will also be the first-ever 600-mile event for the Next Gen Cars, and so there could be unforeseen variables that impact the outcome of Sunday’s race. That's why bettors would be crazy to pass up double-digit odds on the driver with the best average finish at Charlotte Motor Speedway over the last 10 races.

Dating back to the fall race on the Charlotte oval in 2015, Martin Truex Jr. is averaging a finish of 6.9, four full positions better than any other driver. He's logged three outright wins over that span, with two coming during the Coca-Cola 600 (2016 and 2019).

Although Truex has yet to win in 2022, he's one of only six drivers who have reached the 400-point threshold after 13 races.

If the last points-paying race at Kansas was any indication, Truex and the entire fleet of Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas are really starting to find a groove. The No. 19 team needed to overcome multiple issues at Kansas, including falling off the lead lap for a time. Yet it still finished sixth. - John

Chase Elliott (+750 via BetMGM)

As much as I like Kyle Larson, the consensus favorite, this Chase Elliott line at BetMGM is too appealing. You’ll find Elliott at +600 through both DraftKings and FanDuel Sportsbooks, so we’re getting some value here. Elliott has driven his No. 9 Chevrolet to no worse than a fourth-place result in each of the last four races at Charlotte. We’ve seen him win once and finish second twice over that span.

Elliott didn’t roll over the field in any of those races, but the Coca-Cola 600 is a tough event to dominate given its length. Any team with a strong car and the discipline to keep it clean for 400 laps can take the checkered flag. Elliott and his Hendrick Motorsports teammates have shown considerable speed at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks in 2022, and I expect to see him in the hunt. - Sirois

Truex Jr. (+1000 via FanDuel)

Truex Jr. likely won't be a full-time driver very much longer. He’s expressed mixed feelings about the Next Gen cars, and Truex hopes to find some speed in his soon. Lucky for him and his team, Truex can make that happen in Charlotte. He's won three of the last nine races there.

His first career win on this track was the 2016 Coca-Cola 600. His Toyota started from the pole and Truex led all but eight laps (392 in total) while earning a 2.5-second win over Jimmie Johnson. He's registered nine top-10 finishes over 11 races since 2015, including six top-three outings. Truex has also led 919 laps since his victory in 2016.

The No. 19 car has notched six top-10 finishes over the first 13 races in 2022, including a sixth-place result two weeks ago in Kansas. - Villagomez

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Coca-Cola 600 Longshot Picks

Austin Dillon (+5000 via DraftKings)

Dillon’s first NASCAR Cup Series victory came during this race in 2017. While there have been a number of poor showings for the No. 3 team at Charlotte in recent years, Dillon's car has finished among the top 10 in each of his last two starts. That includes a sixth-place result in the Coca-Cola 600 in 2021.

While Tyler Reddick, his Richard Childress Racing teammate, has garnered much more buzz among NASCAR bettors in 2022, Dillon remains quietly solid. That's particularly true at 1.5-mile or similar ovals like Charlotte Motor Speedway. He finished 13th two weeks ago at Kansas, ninth at Darlington, and 11th at Las Vegas in March.

Dillon is still running the same RCR equipment as Reddick. The latter being priced at +1400 while the No. 3 team is left hanging at +5000 to win Sunday night’s race is a gap worth exploiting. - John

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Bubba Wallace (+8000 via BetMGM)

Kurt Busch already scored his obligatory win for the year, and the books have adjusted his odds accordingly. Fortunately, the books haven't adjusted the odds for his teammate Bubba Wallace, despite 23XI Racing showing its winning speed.

Wallace hasn't recorded a top-10 finish during the Coca-Cola 600 yet. However, he registered a career-best finish of 14th during the 2021 race, and Toyota’s strong showing at Kansas Speedway makes me optimistic about Wallace’s chances. His No. 23 Toyota wasn’t much slower than Kurt Busch’s No. 45, and Wallace could’ve brought home a top-five result if his team didn't make so many pit-road mistakes.

The veteran will need some late-race chaos help to win, but he should be capable of competing at the end. - Sirois

Dillon (+6000 via Caesars)

There's a clear divide after the favorites at most books, and things get dicey once you clear the +3000 mark. Dillon is one of two drivers outside of the clear favorites to have won this race over the last five years. He piloted his No. 3 car to victory lane in 2017 while riding on fumes as he crossed the finish line. It was his first career win.

The years since haven't been so kind, with the exception of the last two races at Charlotte, as he's notched two top-10 finishes. Dillon’s 2022 season has been rocky, but he's still logged two second-place finishes and a third-place outing.

He’s a longshot for a reason, but he may be heading in the right direction after back-to-back top-15 finishes. - Villagomez

Coca-Cola 600 Matchup Picks

Kurt Busch (+135 via DraftKings) vs. Ryan Blaney

Aside from winning the All-Star Race last weekend, Ryan Blaney has fallen off recently after a superb start to the season. It's been five points-paying races since the last time Blaney even registered a top-10 finish. Meanwhile, Busch won just two weeks ago at Kansas. Although he's not a Joe Gibbs driver, Busch’s 23XI Racing team is a Joe Gibbs Racing affiliate. That lumps his team into the general trend of Toyotas coming on strong in recent weeks.

Busch also owns a distinct advantage over Blaney when it comes to historical stats at Charlotte. He's accumulated seven top-10 finishes and an average result of 13.3 over his last 10 races at the oval. Toss out a 38th-place DNF during the 2021 race that was the result of a flukey engine failure, and his average finish over the nine previous starts becomes 10.5.

Meanwhile, Blaney has logged just three top-10 showings and an average finish of 16.6 over his last 10 Charlotte starts. Aside from holding the hot hand after winning the $1 million check last week, nothing that suggests Blaney should be such a hefty favorite over Busch. - John

Wallace (+120 via DraftKings) vs. Daniel Suarez

Wallace has been better at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks than Daniel Suarez in 2021, yet he's a massive underdog against him. He finished 10th in Kansas while Suarez ended up 33rd. Wallace also finished 27th in Las Vegas with Suarez way back in 37th. Although Suarez’s average finish (18.5) is slightly better than Wallace’s mark (19.9), Charlotte Motor Speedway plays to the latter's relative strengths.

23XI Racing and the Toyotas have been looking great at 1.5-mile intermediate tracks lately. The teams dominated at Kansas and probably would’ve won the All-Star Race in Texas if Kyle Busch didn't blow a tire. Let’s ride their hot streak at Charlotte to target this plus-money matchup bet. - Sirois

Kevin Harvick (+100 via DraftKings) vs. Bell

Harvick has enjoyed success at most of the remaining tracks on the schedule. That includes Charlotte, where he's compiled 20 top-10 finishes over 39 career starts. This includes 17 of his last 20 appearances. Harvick has taken the green flag 13 times on this track in the No. 4 car, earning a win and six top-five finishes in those starts.

Meanwhile, Bell has made only three career Cup Series starts at this track. His best finish was ninth place in his first outing. His last two finishes have fallen outside of the top 20.

Since Talladega, these two drivers have finished within a few cars of each other. Bell enjoyed the better day in Kansas, and Harvick finished ahead of him at Darlington. Harvick's ability to run well in any car on this track gives him a clear advantage. - Villagomez

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Coca-Cola 600 Top-Five Picks

Christopher Bell (+300 via DraftKings)

The entire Joe Gibbs Racing garage has been coming alive in recent weeks, including Christopher Bell. Ever since the road course race at COTA, the No. 20 Camry has been a top-10 car virtually every week.

Bell finished third at Circuit of the Americas to kick-start his recent surge. Bell has finished in the top 10 in nearly every race since then, with the exception of Martinsville and Talladega, two tracks that aren't comparable to Charlotte Motor Speedway. He's amid a stretch of seven top-10 finishes over nine races, including three top-fives.

If the race at Kansas two weeks ago was any indication, Joe Gibbs Racing's 1.5-mile program will be tough to beat in 2022. Bell was fifth in a race when Joe Gibbs Racing Toyotas occupied positions three through six. Add in the affiliate 23XI Racing cars, and six of the top-10 finishers at Kansas were Toyotas.

The progress of the entire organization and Bell in recent weeks is more than enough to justify a +300 top-five ticket. - John

Ross Chastain (+175 via DraftKings)

Although I’m fading Chastain’s teammate at TrackHouse Racing, the Watermelon Man is unfadeable. He leads the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series in total top-five results with seven, one more than the next-best driver Kyle Larson, and at least three more than everyone else.

Chastain’s strong runs have come at just about every type of track. He boasts a top-five at a traditional 1.5-mile intermediate circuit, a 1.5-mile Superspeedway, a 2.5-mile Superspeedway, a road course, and two short tracks.

His aggressive driving style doesn’t suit the length of the Coca-Cola 600. But it’s disrespectful to give Chastain the eighth-longest odds for another top-five result when he leads the Cup Series in such finishes this season. - Sirois

Chastain (+175 via DraftKings)

You can lock Chastain up as a top-five favorite every week. He's come through in that respect in seven out of the 13 races in 2022. His Trackhouse Racing team is red-hot right now, and the No. 1 car is leading the charge. Chastain's car has been in the first position in 10 races this season while leading a total of 273 laps.

He's notched two wins already in 2022. Of his seven top-five finishes, six have been top-three outings. Chastain was fast during the All-Star race, but he became caught up with the No. 18 car. This play has cashed more than it's failed, making Chastain a solid bet heading into Charlotte. - Villagomez

Coca-Cola 600 Prop Picks

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. top-10 finish (+135 via BetMGM)

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. provides bettors with the ideal combination of recent success and a strong history at Charlotte. BetMGM also offers some value on Stenhouse with its price of +135, whereas other books are slotting him as low as +100.

Stenhouse’s early struggles in 2022 have long since dissipated. His recent success began with a surprising runner-up finish at Dover in early May. The No. 47 JTG Daugherty Racing team went on to score eighth-place finishes at Darlington and Kansas the next two weeks. Stenhouse also won the first stage of the NASCAR All-Star Open last week at Texas to qualify for the main event.

He's also quietly finished among the top-10 during three of his last four starts at Charlotte (including two top-five results), narrowly missing in 2021 while ending up in 12th. Stenhouse placed fifth in the 600-mile race in 2019.

The veteran holds plenty of darkhorse appeal. - John

Austin Dillon top-10 finish (+150 via DraftKings)

Dillon usually beats expectations at Charlotte. He finished sixth during the 2021 Coca-Cola 600, and eighth in the Alsco Uniforms 500 in 2020. Dillon owns one win and four top-10 finishes during 13 points-paying races in Charlotte. That victory and three of the top 10s came over his last seven starts.

Dillon and Richard Childress Racing have shown just enough speed to warrant targeting him here. He piloted his No. 3 Chevrolet to an 11th-place result in Las Vegas and a 13th-place finish in Kansas, which are similar tracks to Charlotte Motor Speedway. He also owns six top-10 finishes in 2021, tying him for the seventh-most alongside Kevin Harvick, Joey Logano, Martin Truex Jr., and Ryan Blaney.

Yet you’ll find him tied for the 17th-longest odds to score another top 10 this weekend at DraftKings. - Sirois

Blaney top Ford (+150 via DraftKings)

The newest NASCAR millionaire is riding high after his All-Star Race win, a race he technically won twice. He holds momentum for a solid run in North Carolina.

The No. 12 has been fast in 2022 while claiming three starts from the pole. Blaney has also tallied four top-five finishes and six top-10 results over the first 13 races.

This prop has only hit once in Austin. But Blaney is well-positioned to make it happen now while riding high. - Villagomez

Where to Bet on the Coca-Cola 600

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