Chestnut vs. Kobayashi Odds: Who Will Win 'Unfinished Beef' Hot Dog Showdown?

Last Updated: September 2, 2024 2:09 PM EDT • 5 minute read X Social Google News Link

It's been 15 years since Joey Chestnut and Takeru Kobayashi last faced off in a hot dog eating contest. But the wait is finally over.
The two most famous competitive eaters of all time will settle the score today at 3 p.m. ET on a live Netflix special, "Unfinished Beef," which will feature a 10-minute hot dog eating contest with modified rules.
Chestnut is the heavy favorite across our best sports betting sites to defend his crown as the world's most feared hot dog eater. But will the "Godfather of Competitive Eating" get his long-awaited revenge?
What are the rules for Unfinished Beef?
While both competitors made their name at the Nathan's Hot Dog Eating Contest, which features a consistent rule set that many are familiar with, Netflix has raised the stakes in this highly anticipated clash.
There are seven rules to govern these two competitors, who haven't faced off since the Nathan's contest in 2009:
- 10-minute contest to eat the most hot dogs and buns
- No dunking or pouring water on hot dogs and buns
- No separation of hot dogs from buns
- Penalties may be issued for breaking of rules, or regurgitation.
- 30 seconds to finish what’s left in their mouths at end of 10 minutes
- Excess crumbs are weighed and deducted from scores if necessary.
- Tiebreaker — Three minutes overtime. Should a second overtime be necessary, winner will be first to finish five hot dogs and buns
Many of those rules - including those limiting the use of water or splitting hot dogs and buns - stand to hurt Kobayashi, who is credited for creating the "Solomon Method" of separting hot dogs from buns and dunking the buns in water to save time and chewing energy.
Chestnut has since adopted this method, as has the entire competitive eating scene, so today's contest will be a unique twist on how these athletes have dominated for years.
Chestnut vs. Kobayashi odds
Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of 2 p.m. ET
Market | Joey Chestnut | Takeru Kobayashi |
---|---|---|
To win contest | -1150 | +650 |
Total hot dogs (O/U) | 66.5 (+106 / -136) | 53.5 (-106 / -122) |
Total combined hot dogs | Over 119.4 (-104) | Under 119.5 (-122) |
Winning margin | Over 13.5 (-112) | Under 13.5 (-112) |
Each product featured on our website has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
It shouldn't surprise anyone to see Chestnut dealing as a heavy favorite for this matchup. He won the last time they faced off in 2009, before Kobayashi ditched the Nathan's contest for good while ducking a rematch with Chestnut.
I would also be surprised if we see Chestnut approach his all-time record of 76 hot dogs, which FanDuel is offering at +410 odds. Without the ability to separate dogs from buns or dunk the latter in water, I'd expect a much slower pace from both competitors in this live Netflix special.
Because of that, I'd be on the Under for total combined hot dogs between these two. They'll surely want to put on a good show, but I don't think the market is properly accounting for how difficult this rule set will be for each competitor.
How many hot dogs will Joey Chestnut eat?
Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of 2 p.m. ET
Total hot dogs | Odds |
---|---|
70+ hot dogs | +125 |
75+ hot dogs | +260 |
80+ hot dogs | +950 |
Again, bet this one at your own peril. I have my doubts that Chestnut will even clear 60 hot dogs, let alone the 70 that FanDuel is offering in the alternate total market.
Then again, we could see the greatest performance of all time from Chestnut with the "whole world" watching. Will he see more viewers in this Netflix special than he does on a typical Fourth of July? Will he be more motivated by his snub this July and the chance to best his longtime rival?
I wouldn't be interested in this market personally, but I've been wrong before.
How many hot dogs will Takeru Kobayashi eat?
Odds via FanDuel Ontario as of 2 p.m. ET
Total hot dogs | Odds |
---|---|
60+ hot dogs | +450 |
65+ hot dogs | +750 |
70+ hot dogs | +2000 |
75+ hot dogs | +6500 |
All of the same concerns apply for Chestnut as they do for Kobayashi - except for the fact that we haven't seen the former six-time Nathan's champion in the limelight since he was banned from the premier event in 2010 due to a contract dispute.
He's continued to set records elsewhere, and there's a chance the market is seriously undervaluing the all-time great competitive eater in his biggest public moment in over a decade. Could he be the one elevated to new heights with the chance to get one back at his old rival?
The only number I'd be targeting here is 70. There's a huge jump between 65 and 70 in these odds, but I'm not sure he's getting close to either number, anyway. If he can dominate without the Solomon Method, then I'd be betting high on the off chance that he's much more seasoned for this moment than any of us expect.
Here are our best sports betting apps:
- Caesars Promo Code: SBRBONUSDYW | Read our Caesars Review
- BetMGM Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our BetMGM Review
- bet365 Bonus Code: SBRBONUS | Read our bet365 Review
- FanDuel Promo Code | Read our FanDuel Review
- DraftKings Promo Code | Read our DraftKings Review
(21+. Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER)
* Bonuses not applicable in Ontario.
Not intended for use in MA.
Each betting site featured on SBR has been meticulously researched and selected by our team of experts. If you sign up through our links, we may get a commission.
Related pages
- Best Sports Betting Sites | Best Sportsbook Promos (U.S. only)

C Jackson Cowart X social