The FedEx Cup Playoffs and the PGA Tour roll on to Wilmington Country Club in Delaware for the first time ever. Our PGA Tour experts offer up their top picks for the BMW Championship.

The 2022 BMW Championship marks the PGA Tour’s first appearance at Wilmington Country Club. Will Zalatoris enters the penultimate event of the 2021-22 season at No. 1 in the FedEx Cup standings following his first PGA Tour victory at last week’s FedEx St. Jude Championship.

Despite Zalatoris’ long-awaited breakthrough victory and new position in the season-long standings, Rory McIlroy is the consensus favorite in the 68-man field among our top-rated sportsbooks. The top 30 in the standings after this week will be eligible to advance to next week’s Tour Championship as the season finale.

Below, our PGA Tour betting experts offer up their top picks for the 2022 BMW Championship at Wilmington CC. Picks made by Esten McLaren, Jon Metler, and Jordan Anderson are based on the odds at our top-rated sportsbooks.

BMW Championship Expert Picks

BMW Championship Picks to Win

Morikawa (+2200 via Caesars Sportsbook)

It has been a quiet year for two-time major winner Collin Morikawa. He is without a win through 16 events in 2022 after racking up six total victories across the previous three years. However, he bounced into form with a T-5 finish at the FedEx St. Jude Championship in his first tournament since missing the cut in his defense of The Open Championship.

Morikawa tied for fifth in last week’s field with 2.00 strokes gained: tee-to-green per round, adding 0.42 SG: off-the-tee, and 0.80 SG: approach. Morikawa also ranks 11th in this field with 1.89 SG: total across his last 12 rounds, led by 1.09 SG: tee-to-green and 0.88 SG: approach in that time.

The young American enters the week eighth in the Official World Golf Ranking (OWGR) but is just 10th by the odds to win at Caesars. He has some extra motivation for a strong finish this week while ranked 20th in the FEC standings entering the penultimate event. - McLaren

Fitzpatrick (+1600 via Caesars)

Over the course of the last several tournaments, Matt Fitzpatrick has demonstrated a high level of consistency in his game. Fitzpatrick broke 70 on all four days last week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

In addition to shooting in the 60s during each round last week, Fitzpatrick gained strokes in all four major categories for the fourth consecutive tournament. Fitzpatrick is exhibiting a high level of consistency and balance in his game, yet we do not see him with the shortest odds.

Since Fitzpatrick does not carry the same name power as McIlroy or Jon Rahm, we are seeing the 2022 U.S. Open champ trade at a slightly higher price than his counterparts, despite his equally good or better statistics. A +1600 is available at Caesars on Fitzpatrick, which makes him my favorite golfer on the board. - Metler

Finau (+1400 via BetMGM)

We want to back a hot golfer in the playoffs, and the artist formerly known as “Top-5 Tony” is just that. 

Tony Finau has two wins in his past three starts and finished T-5 last week. I believe the emphasis on distance is slightly overstated this week, as the par 5s make up most of the extra yardage we see. Well, Finau ranks T-14 on Tour this season in par-5 scoring and 14th in birdie or better percentage. As usual, it will be advantageous for players to take advantage of these holes, and Finau certainly fits the bill. 

Additionally, Finau has gained 30.2 strokes on approach across his past 24 rounds – good for second in the field in that time. 

Wilmington Country Club possesses enormous greens, and we want someone who can stick it close to these pins that will likely be in difficult positions. Finau can do just that. It’s a loaded field, but I fully expect Finau to be in contention come Sunday. - Anderson

BMW Championship Long-Shot Picks

List (+25000 via DraftKings Sportsbook)

This is the first professional event being held at Wilmington Country Club and it underwent significant renovations last year. With no proper course history to draw from for anyone in the field, bettors must turn to course comparisons.

There are some parallels between Wilmington and Torrey Pines, where Luke List won earlier this year at the Farmers Insurance Open. He’s 75th on Tour in good drive percentage and should be able to combat the narrow fairways, at least by hitting past most of the competition in the rough. Across his last 12 rounds, List is averaging 0.88 SG: off-the-tee per round and has been undone by a woeful 1.47 strokes lost per round with his putter during that time. 

A more neutral performance with his flat stick while leaning on his driver and ball striking keeps him in contention this week while looking to advance to East Lake Golf Club and the Tour Championship. - McLaren

Pereira (+11000 via FanDuel Sportsbook)

While Mito Pereira does not come into the BMW Championship in the best of form, I find it difficult to ignore his price of +11000 at FanDuel as a long shot. Pereira is trading at a much shorter price at DraftKings, where he is listed at +7000.

It is important to note that despite Pereira's recent struggles and missed cuts, his approach game has not abandoned him and his statistics remain strong. In six of Pereira's last nine tournaments, he has averaged 1.00 or better SG: approach.

Pereira appears to be someone who, if he were to put it together and find himself in contention on a Sunday, could actually close the deal and win. Many long shots on the board lack the ability to close out a tournament, which is why he has my attention at +11000. - Metler

Steele (+15000 via Caesars)

Brendan Steele was a popular play last week but burned many with a missed cut. Before last weekend’s MC, Steele had been in superb form with two top-10 finishes in his past five starts and a T-30 at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. 

You probably wouldn’t have guessed it, but Steele ranks just behind Finau with 26.0 strokes gained on approach over his past 24 rounds. Steele has the talent to hang around in challenging fields, as his T-9 at the PGA Championship proved. 

In one of the strongest fields of the year, it’s a tough ask for Steele to win, but with a similar profile as one of the favorites, he’s certainly worth a sprinkle. - Anderson

BMW Championship Top Matchup Picks

Pereira (+100) vs. Riley (via DraftKings)

We’ve highlighted the importance of driving this week and that’s an area where the underdog Pereira has an advantage over Davis Riley. Pereira is 25th on Tour this season to Riley’s rank of 56th in good-drive percentage. While Riley had the advantage off the tee last week with 1.06 strokes gained per round, Pereira had the edge from tee to green and on approach.

Pereira also enters the week ranked fourth on Tour for the season in par-4 efficiency: 400-450 yards with Riley ranked T-98. That’s our key scoring distance this week with all par 5s and par 3s playing extremely long and neutralizing scoring opportunities.  - McLaren

Morikawa (+130) vs. Finau (via FanDuel)

While Finau has been on fire of late, winning the 3M Open and Rocket Mortgage Classic in back-to-back weeks, the +130 available on Morikawa is too good to pass up.

After finishing in the top five last week, it appears we will see the best version of Morikawa's game in the playoffs. Morikawa gained strokes in all four major categories, which is noteworthy given the fact that his putting and chipping have been suspect throughout the season.

This week, Morikawa's outright odds have changed significantly, trading at +1800 at FanDuel compared to the +3000 that was available last week. I would lean toward the +130 available in this matchup if you wish to take advantage of Morikawa's level of play. - Metler

Mcllroy (-135) vs. Cantlay (via DraftKings)

Fade the 2021 FedEx Cup Champion? Yup! Sorry, Patty, it must be done. 

Yes, McIlroy missed the cut last week, but give the guy a break. He was coming off a crushing defeat at The Open Championship and admitted he hadn’t touched a club in weeks nor hit the gym. You haven’t either, so have some empathy. 

Anyway, Mcllroy has been one of the hottest golfers on the planet this season. He ranks fourth in the field with 23.9 strokes gained on approach across his past 24 rounds and is one of the best bentgrass putters teeing it up this week. He ranks fifth on tour in birdie or better percentage and is third in par-5 scoring. 

Cantlay is no slouch, tied for first in par-5 scoring and with two top-5 finishes in his past four starts. However, his T-57 finish last week is problematic as he got worse over the weekend. 

I’ll confidently back the hotter player over the emotionless Cantlay in this spot. - Anderson

BMW Championship Top Prop Picks

Round 1 leader: Young (+3500 via DraftKings)

Cameron Young enters the week 10th on Tour for the season in Round 1 scoring average and is 13th in the FEC standings as a rookie. He tied for just 31st last week at TPC Southwind, but he led the field with 1.33 SG: off-the-tee per round and was fifth with 1.90 SG: tee-to-green.

First-round leader markets often help to narrow the gap between the top of the field and the bottom from the outright markets. Those with the better odds to win outright will often have elevated first-round leader odds and those with a lower chance to win outright will have shortened FRL odds. 

However, Young’s first-round odds have lengthened too far based on his first-round scoring average for the season. He’s +2500 to win at DraftKings but +3500 to hold the 18-hole lead. - McLaren

Top Canadian: Taylor Pendrith (+210 via DraftKings)

While there is little data on Wilmington Country Club, what we do know is that it has a similar course profile to Caves Valley Golf Club and Torrey Pines South, both of which favor bombers off the tee.

While Corey Conners gains strokes with his driver, he does so more with accuracy than power, which will be less relevant at Wilmington Country Club. In light of this, I am backing Taylor Pendrith, who is averaging 0.61 SG: off-the-tee on the season, primarily due to his distance.

In my opinion, Conners and Pendrith should be priced much closer than the +130 and +210 we are seeing at DraftKings. Pendrith's game is well suited to this golf course, which is why I will be betting +210 on him to be the top Canadian. - Metler

Finau to win wire to wire (+7000 via DraftKings)

I’m all in on Finau this weekend, and though he ranks a pedestrian 30th on Tour in first-round scoring this season, his past two first rounds have caught my attention.

He tied for the first-round lead two starts ago at the Rocket Mortgage Classic after shooting -8 and shot -6 in the opening round last week. He has shown a recent penchant for getting off to a quick start and has a tee time of 11:40 a.m. ET.

I’ll throw some pizza money on Finau continuing his torrid play and leaving the field in the dust from the get-go. - Anderson

Picks to Fade

Cantlay

Cantlay is the defending champion of the BMW Championship but that was at Caves Valley as this tournament changes location most years. While there are similarities between Caves Valley and Wilmington CC, we can’t rely on that recent course history.

Cantlay’s coming off an ugly T-57 finish last week in which he lost strokes off the tee, on approach, and on the greens. His struggles with his irons and putter were emphasized on Sunday when he lost 2.38 strokes on approach and 1.06 strokes putting while firing a +2, 72.

While the last 12-round sample shines a much more favorable light on Cantlay, his driver has still been his greatest weakness over that time. That won’t do him any favors in Wilmington. - McLaren

Scheffler

Despite dominating earlier in the season, Scheffler has been very underwhelming of late in comparison to his price point. There are much better options in this price range than Scheffler, who is trading at +1400 among the other favorites in the tournament.

The sportsbooks pushed Rahm back to +2000 last week at the FedEx St. Jude. If they did the same for Scheffler this week, they would have my attention, but at +1400, I am simply not interested. Rather than focusing on Cameron Smith's putts, Scheffler should worry about his own. - Metler

Kim

It’d be hard to fade anyone in this competitive field, but I’ll fade the hot rookie. 

Joohyung Kim has been quite the story, dominantly winning the Wyndham Championship to qualify for the FedEx Cup Playoffs. 

He also finished T-13 last week, showing he belongs, but he’s played a lot of golf of late, and the strength of the competition should catch up to him this week. 

I would much rather turn to the veteran Joaquin Niemann at the same number or Jordan Spieth at +4000, despite last week’s poor showing. - Anderson

Where to Bet on the PGA Tour

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

FanDuel Sportsbook
Caesars Sportsbook
DraftKings Sportsbook
PointsBet
BetMGM

Check out the latest comprehensive and most trusted Sportsbook Reviews by SBR.

SEE ALSO: All picks, odds, and sports betting news. Be sure to check out SportsbookReview.com’s community forums and betting tools.