Ambetter 301 Betting Preview: Targeting Drivers in Must-Win Situations

Isaiah Sirois

Last Updated: July 14, 2022 6:38 AM EDT • 3 min 9 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

The NASCAR Cup Series heads to New Hampshire Motor Speedway for its only race in New England each year. Who is the likeliest to get lucky at the Magic Mile this season? Find out with our Ambetter 301 picks.

Aric Almirola stunned the world when he won at New Hampshire Motor Speedway in 2021. He entered the race with just one top-five finish to his name at that point, but he left as a winner and a playoff contender.

New Hampshire doesn’t have a reputation for producing surprise winners, but there’s an argument that it should be made. Six drivers earned their first-ever win at New Hampshire; Robby Gordon, Joey Logano, Ryan Newman, Tony Stewart, Clint Bowyer, and Joe Nemechek. The track’s one-mile, relatively unbanked surface makes passing difficult. Its tight turns and long straightaways reward those who can get strong runs on corner exits.

Here are my outright picks for NASCAR’s Ambetter 301 at the New Hampshire Motor Speedway track in Loudon, NH (odds via Barstool Sportsbook, BetMGM, and DraftKings Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).

Ambetter 301 Odds

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Ambetter 301 Odds Analysis

Despite not winning this season, Ryan Blaney enters the weekend with the shortest odds across the market. Most books have him priced at +600. Logano, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Martin Truex, Jr. join him as the only other drivers with odds shorter than +1000 across the market. Quaker State 400 winner Chase Elliott sits between +900 and +1000.

Almirola can be found at +2500 to repeat. Brad Keselowski, who won this event in 2020 and almost won it again last year, can be found at +10000.

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Ambetter 301 Picks

Ryan Blaney (+700 via Barstool) ????Christopher Bell (+1800 via DraftKings) ????Michael McDowell (+30000 via BetMGM) ??

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Who Will Win the Ambetter 301?

Blaney (+700)

As the regular season winds to a close, bettors should pay close attention to the playoff race. Seven races remain before the playoffs get underway, so with 13 different drivers with wins already this year, a strong point performance may not be enough to qualify. Blaney, who ranks second in points, could be eliminated before the first playoff race even starts.

New Hampshire presents Blaney with a fantastic opportunity to find victory lane. He finished fifth here last season after leading 64 laps, the second-most that day. Further, Blaney looked great at the tracks most similar to New Hampshire in 2022. He finished fourth at Gateway, fourth at Martinsville, seventh at Richmond, and fourth at Phoenix. He even led laps in all four events.

Blaney and the No. 12 team have every incentive to gamble for a win on Sunday, especially with Chase Elliott now running away with the regular-season championship. You’ll find Blaney at +600 almost everywhere, so head to Barstool Sportsbook for the best deal on the 28-year-old star.

Bell (+1800)

Like Blaney, Bell is yet to find victory lane this season. Yet unlike Blaney, Bell would be the first driver eliminated should someone else find victory lane. He’ll enter Sunday’s race with even more pressure to win than Blaney.

Bell has the talent to win here. He finished second in last year’s race after he just couldn’t close on Aric Almirola. His runner-up finish came the day after he led 75.5% of the laps on his way to a victory in the Xfinity Series race. It marked his third Xfinity Series win at New Hampshire in three attempts.

You’ll find Bell between +1800 and +1000 across the market. We’re getting a surprising chunk of value by targeting him at DraftKings, so I recommend that you lock this play in before practice and qualifying mixes things up.

McDowell (+30000)

Maybe it makes more financial sense to target McDowell to earn a top-10 finish, which you’ll find at +800 on DraftKings. But this line for McDowell to win outright is still ridiculous. McDowell sits at +10000 or +20000 across the market, so we’re getting an extra boatload of value by heading to BetMGM for this play.

McDowell is yet to win at New Hampshire. He is also yet to score a top-10 finish at the track. But the No. 34 team is in the middle of a career season. McDowell already has two more top-10 finishes this year than any other season in his career. His average finish of 16.5 also marks a four-position jump from last season.

Like our other two picks, McDowell needs a win to qualify for the playoffs. And with just one road course left on the schedule before they get underway, he doesn’t have much time left to win. He led a season-high 34 laps back at Gateway, and the talented road-course driver should benefit from the Magic Mile’s tight corners. If New Hampshire is going to produce another surprise winner, I suspect it’ll be McDowell.

Where to Bet Ambetter 301 Picks

Here are our top-rated sportsbooks:

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Ambetter 301 picks made 7/13/2022 at 5:21 p.m. ET

Written By:
Isaiah Sirois

Isaiah Sirois is a Sports Betting Analyst at Sportsbook Review specializing in basketball, motorsports, and football. He uses a wide variety of analytical tools to identify value on event-specific markets, and you can always find his columns stuffed to the brim with data. Basketball is Isaiah’s favorite sport to handicap, and he has covered NBA, WNBA, NCAA, Olympic, and FIBA markets for Sportsbook Review and other sites. However, Isaiah’s favorite sport to follow is auto racing, and you can usually find him watching NASCAR or IndyCar most weekends. He will be a fan of Team Penske and Ford Performance until the end of time. Isaiah graduated with a bachelor’s degree from Emory University and is currently attending Vanderbilt Law School.