Aces vs. Liberty Prediction, Game 2 Expert Picks & WNBA Playoffs Odds Today
The New York Liberty host the Las Vegas Aces for Game 2 of their semifinal series in the WNBA playoffs, which tips off tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
- The Liberty are favored by 3.5 points to beat the Aces across our best sportsbooks
- New York secured an 87-77 win over Las Vegas in Sunday's Game 1
- We like the hosts' chances to stay hot in a big spot for Sabrina Ionescu
Here is a look at our Aces vs. Liberty prediction, expert picks, and WNBA odds for Tuesday's Game 2:
Aces vs. Liberty expert picks: Game 2
WNBA picks made Monday; odds subject to change. Confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.
- Liberty -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
- Sabrina Ionescu Over 22.5 pts + ast (-128 via FanDuel) ⭐⭐⭐
- Chelsea Gray Over 4.5 assists (-130 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐
Aces vs. Liberty prediction: Game 2
Liberty -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
If anything about Game 1 surprised you, then you clearly didn't read our Aces vs. Liberty prediction, where we essentially scripted the result of Sunday's series opener.
New York won the battle on the glass against Las Vegas for the fourth time in as many matchups this season, and Breanna Stewart went off for 34 points on just 19 attempts in her team's biggest game of the season.
Looking ahead to Game 2, predicting the result isn't a question of which team is better. It's whether New York can maintain that intensity for two games in a row.
Can Liberty stay in control?
Because there are only 12 teams in the WNBA with 40 games per team fit into a limited window, we've seen a fair share of instances when the Liberty faced an opponent in back-to-back games.
Clearly, the regular season isn't the postseason. But New York is 9-0 straight up when facing an opponent it saw days earlier (including the postseason), winning those nine rematches by an average of 12.3 points per contest.
The second game has typically been closer, but that's to be expected with regular-season stakes. And I think the Liberty have made clear how locked in they are for a second crack at a championship run with a star-studded roster.
That's why I'm laying the points once again on Tuesday's hosts, especially with BetMGM offering a line even lower than what we saw ahead of Game 1.
That doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me, and if we successfully take advantage for a second straight game, a $10 bet would return $8.70 in profit.
Best odds: -115 via BetMGM | Implied probability: 53.49%
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Aces vs. Liberty player props: Game 2
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Sabrina Ionescu Over 22.5 pts + ast (-130) ⭐⭐⭐
Just as we suspected ahead of Game 1, Stewart stepped up for her team with a game-high 34 points in a statement win for the Liberty.
So did Ionescu, who quietly had 21 points with three made 3-pointers for the third time in as many postseason games. That came after she set a new playoff career high with 36 points in the semifinals.
Ionescu also finished with a team-high five assists - her eighth straight game with at least five assists and 12th time in her last 13 starts.
The former No. 1 pick has assumed a larger facilitating role with Courtney Vandersloot hitting the bench, and she's clearly the Liberty's most important perimeter scorer in a matchup with the loaded Aces.
I don't love these short odds via FanDuel, the only sportsbook currently offering this prop bet, but it would still return $7.69 in profit on a $10 bet if Ionescu clears this total for a third straight game.
Best odds: -130 via FanDuel | Implied probability: 56.52%
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Chelsea Gray Over 4.5 assists (-130) ⭐⭐⭐
We were burned in Game 1 trying to predict what would happen with this Aces backcourt, which is full of star power and light on predictability.
Still, this feels like an overreaction to a quiet showing from Gray, who finished with four points and just one assists in that series-opening defeat.
That came after she posted seven and nine assists in her previous two games against the Seattle Storm, and she had finished with five or more helpers in eight of her last 10 games before Sunday's loss.
With this wager dealing as short as -165 elsewhere, I don't mind these -130 odds at Caesars, which would turn a $10 bet into a $7.69 profit if Gray returns to form.
Best odds: -130 via Caesars | Implied probability: 56.52%
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Aces vs. Liberty Game 2 odds
| DraftKings | FanDuel | BetMGM | Caesars | bet365 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Liberty | -3.5 (-115) | -4 (-110) | -3.5 (-115) | -4 (-110) | -4 (-110) |
| Aces | +3.5 (-105) | +4 (-110) | +3.5 (-105) | +4 (-110) | +4 (-110) |
Aces vs. Liberty Game 2 info
- When: Tuesday, Oct. 1
- Tip-off: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Where: Barclays Center (Brooklyn, N.Y.)
- How to watch: ESPN2
- Favorite: Liberty -3.5 (-115 via BetMGM)
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