The betting market has moved more than eight points on the total for Game 3 compared to the opener of this WNBA Finals series. How should bettors approach this massive adjustment? Let's examine the matchup in our Aces-Sun WNBA picks.
The 2022 WNBA Finals shifts to a different venue on Thursday night for Game 3 between the Las Vegas Aces and Connecticut Sun.
After winning the first two games at home, the Aces are now just one victory away from capturing the first title in franchise history. While Las Vegas will attempt to complete a WNBA Finals sweep, the Sun will aim to reverse the course of this series. Will home-court advantage be enough to help Connecticut stave off elimination?
Here are my picks and predictions for Thursday night’s WNBA Finals Game 3 matchup between the Aces and Sun (odds via BetMGM, and FanDuel and DraftKings sportsbooks; Pick confidence is based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Aces vs. Sun Game Info
Date: Thursday, September 15, 9 p.m. ET
Location: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT
Aces vs. Sun Odds Analysis
Oddsmakers opened up Thursday's WNBA Finals Game 3 as a dead-even pick’em. The betting market has since shown enough support for the Sun to cause a one-point line move in their favor. That adjustment has taken place despite the Aces attracting the majority of public bets and also a greater percentage of the handle.
Meanwhile, the total has dipped as low as 159.5 at several shops after opening up at 161. With both Games 1 and 2 staying under the closing number, it's no surprise to see the market steadily moving in that direction. The current consensus is nearly 10 points lower than the Game 1 closing line of 168.
Aces vs. Sun Picks
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Aces vs. Sun ATS Pick
Aces ML (+100) ★★
This may classify as a square betting play, but it’s virtually impossible to continue fading the Aces in this series. Las Vegas has been the most potent offensive team in the WNBA all season long. The Aces have still found a way to win, even as the Sun held them to under 25% shooting from 3-point range during the first two games of this series.
With Connecticut clearly focused on limiting the damage from beyond the arc, the Aces opted to prioritize high-percentage looks in Game 2. The result was a team shooting percentage north of 51%. A’ja Wilson and Chelsea Gray both stayed red-hot while Kelsey Plum notched her first 20-point game since the series-opener against Seattle.
The presence of so many lethal and versatile scorers appears to be overwhelming the Sun's defense in this series. A tip of the cap also must be given to Kiah Stokes, who has been extremely consistent on the glass for the Aces throughout the postseason. With Dearica Hamby now healthy and continuing to log more minutes each game, Las Vegas boasts plenty of its own size and length to counter that of Connecticut.
As expected, the massive free-throw disparity from Game 1 regressed to the mean on Tuesday. The Sun actually attempted four more free throws in Game 2 than the Aces. Unless DeWanna Bonner snaps out of her shooting funk that's limited her to just five points so far in the WNBA Finals, Las Vegas should finish off the sweep on Thursday.
Aces vs. Sun O/U Pick
Over 159.5 (-110) ★★★★
With the game total continuing to move toward making the Under more appealing, bettors need to ask if there's a point when the market movement gets out of hand. FanDuel’s total of 159.5 is a whole 8.5 points lower than the closing number of 168 for Game 1. There’s an argument to be made that we've already entered the window of opportunity to buy back on the Over.
Although we have yet to see it in this series, the Sun are a capable offensive team. Connecticut ranked second to the Aces in regular season offensive rating. The Sun were also second in the league in average shooting percentage. Perhaps going back home for Game 3 will help jump-start Bonner and the Sun’s supporting cast offensively.
The other stat worth highlighting is how poorly both teams are shooting from 3-point range in this series. The Aces tied for the league lead with a 36.1% regular-season shooting clip. Las Vegas has yet to shoot better than 23% from deep in the WNBA Finals, which suggests positive regression is coming.
In addition, the Aces were one of the poorer teams in the league when defending the perimeter. Connecticut has also fallen short of its team average from distance in both Games 1 and 2. Neither team has produced at a high level offensively, leading to further suspicion regarding the massive market swing on the total.
Aces vs. Sun Prop Pick
Jonquel Jones Under 16.5 points (-120) ★★★
The issues for Connecticut offensively in this series haven't been due to poor play from center Jonquel Jones. But while she's scored 15-plus points in three straight games going back to the series-clinching win over Chicago, Jones has failed to eclipse this line.
She's only surpassed 16.5 points three times through 10 playoff games so far, with two of those results coming back in the first-round series against Dallas. This total sits nearly two full points above her season scoring average of 14.6 per game.
For the Sun to get back into this series, it’s more important for Bonner and Alyssa Thomas to get going offensively. Jones also must contend with the tough interior defense of both Wilson and Stokes.
It's no surprise that Jones' scoring prop total sits a full point lower elsewhere in the betting market. There's very little to suggest she'll suddenly become that much more effective offensively in Game 3.
Where to Bet on Aces-Sun Picks
Aces-Sun picks made 9/15/2022 at 3:34 p.m. ET