Yankees vs. Mets Player Prop Predictions, Odds: Expert Picks for Tuesday

The Subway Series resumes, and the Yankees' Gerrit Cole will look to mow down the Mets.

Sean Tomlinson

Last Updated: June 25, 2024 11:55 AM EDT • 5 minute read

New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole reacts during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium as we look at our Yankees vs. Mets player props. — New York Yankees starting pitcher Gerrit Cole reacts during the first inning against the Tampa Bay Rays at Yankee Stadium. Photo by Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports.

The stumbling New York Yankees face their suddenly surging crosstown rivals on Tuesday, and we're breaking down the matchup in our Yankees vs. Mets player props based on the best MLB odds.

One New York team set to take the field on Tuesday night at 7:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field on TBS is inferno hot, and has been lighting up the opposition in June while posting a 13-6 record. That includes a recent seven-game winning steak.

And the other team is the Yankees.

Yes, despite their wealth of firepower that includes multiple MLB MVP odds candidates and a recently returned Gerrit Cole - who's on the mound Tuesday - the club that you'd expect to rule New York is scuffling, at least briefly. The Yanks have lost six of their last eight contests, and their lead atop the AL East is now down to just two games.

Which trajectory keeps going on Tuesday when the Subway Series resumes?

Here are our best Yankees vs. Mets player props and MLB picks.

Yankees vs. Mets player props

Odds via our best MLB betting sites; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale.

Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 strikeouts (+106 via Caesars) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 strikeouts (-145 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Harrison Bader Under 0.5 total bases (+105 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐

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Yankees vs. Mets expert picks

Gerrit Cole Under 5.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

Sure, fading Gerrit Cole in any manner can be a rather sweaty experience. After all, we're talking about the defending AL Cy Young winner here who's finished second in voting for the award on two other occasions. And doubting his strikeout ability on any night can be especially terrifying.

But Cole is still a living, breathing human. I know that's tough to believe at times, as he seems like a batter-demolishing cyborg. But it's true, and humans often need time to work back into full form after a long layoff due to injury.

This is only Cole's second outing following his IL stint due to an elbow issue. He was limited to 62 pitches during his 2024 debut, which resulted in lasting only four innings and staying Under this 5.5 strikeout total (he finished with five).

A workload increase is expected on Tuesday, but Cole surely won't be fully unleashed yet, making it difficult to clear what would usually be a low strikeout total for him. Combine that with the Mets being tough to strike out, recording the eighth fewest in MLB, and a fully healthy Cole finishing with a solid, though not imposing, 9.6 K/9 in 2023, and we get one of the few nights this season when the strikeout Under is the right play on Cole.

Pinnacle and its industry-leading trading team agrees, as that book is pricing the Under at -128, leading to significant value in the +106 offering from Caesars. A $10 wager at those odds would lead to a $20.60 payout, with an implied probability of 48.54%.

Best odds: +106 via Caesars

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Jeff McNeil Under 0.5 strikeouts ⭐⭐⭐⭐

There's a clear correlation here with Cole going Under his strikeout prop.

But disciplined Mets infielder Jeff McNeil is still well-positioned to avoid striking out even if Cole departs earlier than usual. While the Yankees' relievers are daunting to face overall with their sixth-ranked bullpen ERA, the unit isn't exactly mowing down the opposition, sitting 21st among bullpens in strikeouts.

For his part, McNeil remains one of MLB's most patient hitters, with a well-honed eye for the strike zone. His strikeout rate sat at just 10% in 2023, and while it's risen slightly in 2024, McNeil is still striking out on just 11.7% of his plate appearances. That puts him among the top 2% of MLB, according to Baseball Savant.

A $10 wager at these -145 odds from bet365 would lead to a $16.90 payout if it cashes, all on an implied probability of 59.18%.

Best odds: -145 via bet365

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Harrison Bader Under 0.5 total bases⭐⭐⭐

Only a few of our best sportsbooks offer the Under on total bases, and Harrison Bader's recent struggles make it appealing to ride those woes.

Bader is hitting just .167 over the past week with a .564 OPS. That run includes three straight hitless appearances. He was removed late in the game during two of those contests, but his platoon status is a factor here as well.

His struggles extend to the entire month of June. Bader is generating some power when he does making contact with his .771 OPS during June, that's risen from .640 in March and April. However, merely making that contact is what matters for this bet, and Bader's batting average has tumbled from .277 during the first month of the season to .255 in June.

You'll get a $20.50 return on your $10 bet at these odds, with a 48.78% implied probability.

Best odds: +105 via DraftKings

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Yankees vs. Mets odds & game info

When: Tuesday, June 25
First pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Where: Citi Field, New York
How to watch: TBS
Favorite: Yankees (-140 via bet365)

Yankees vs. Mets player props made Tuesday at 10 a.m. ET.

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Written by:
Sean Tomlinson

Sean Tomlinson has been in the sports media wilderness since 2009, and he joined Sportsbook Review in 2021. His work has been referenced in The New York Times and Forbes. He's also made appearances on The Fan 590 and TSN 1050. Sean is a regular bettor who places bets daily while using a handful of books. Most frequently, he uses FanDuel and bet365 due to the quality experience on those apps. While he'll often take an analytical approach, Sean enjoys the fun, recreational side of betting too, and embraces alternative markets on events like the Westminster Dog Show or Eurovision, or the many novelty props tied annually to the Super Bowl, for example. Beyond sports, Sean is also interested in the betting markets tied to politics, and especially those connected to American elections. He sees betting as a way to explore and engage in a deeper way, and takes that same view to his work. He plays poker periodically too, and is an avid fantasy sports player. Sean also previously spent time with Bleacher Report and theScore, all after earning his media studies degree from the University of Guelph-Humber.