⚾ Will Tarik Skubal Be Traded? MLB Trade Rumors, Next Team Odds at Prediction Markets

Tarik Skubal will surely go down as one of the best players in Detroit Tigers history, but his time in the Motor City appears to be nearing an expiration date after reports this week reignited the MLB trade rumors surrounding the two-time reigning AL Cy Young winner.

On Monday, The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported a growing sense around the league that Skubal is a "goner" with the Aug. 3 trade deadline looming and Skubal's free agency right around the corner. The market reacted swiftly with Detroit's ace priced as the second-most likely player to be traded this year across prediction market apps.

Below, I break down the odds that Skubal is traded, which teams are the favorites to land him, and the likelihood that we see him return later this month.

⚾ Will Tarik Skubal be traded?

It sure looks like it. The Tigers have been mum about shopping their two-time Cy Young winner, who helped them snap a 10-year postseason drought two years ago, but it's long felt unlikely that Detroit would be able to bring back Skubal as a free agent given the historic contract he could fetch with super-agent Scott Boras by his side.

Still, the Tigers' front office has held off the siren call of a mega-package for Skubal with the hopes of retaining him on a long-term extension. Any optimism on that front was dashed this offseason when the two sides failed to come to terms before filing arbitration offers that were $13 million apart - the largest gap in MLB history - before Skubal ultimately landed a record-setting $32 million salary this season.

Then Skubal landed on the injured list in early May and underwent surgery to remove a loose body from his left elbow. At the time, the Tigers were 18-17 with a glimmer of hope in the wide-open AL Central; they've lost 21 of 26 games since and sport the worst record in baseball (23-38) with just a few months left before Skubal is officially gone.

It's easy to see why prediction markets are bullish on Skubal's odds of being traded. As of Tuesday afternoon, he features a 64% chance to be traded at Kalshi, where buying one share at 65 cents would return $1 if he's dealt by the MLB trade deadline on Aug. 3. The acquiring team would need to take on roughly $11 million in salary for two months of post-recovery Skubal, plus the trade package sent out, but it could be a rental worth paying for if it nets a World Series title and/or a long-term extension.

Which MLB players will be traded in 2026?

Here's a look at the latest Kalshi market for which MLB players will be traded before the Aug. 3 trade deadline. As of Tuesday, Skubal had the second-highest likelihood of being traded (64%) behind only Miami Marlins pitcher Sandy Alcantara (69%).

🔁 Who will trade for Tarik Skubal?

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.

While it's not a lock that Skubal is traded this summer - the market still prices in more than a 30% chance that he doesn't - the likelihood of him moving on from Detroit is much higher.

Whether via trade or free agency, it sure looks like Skubal is headed elsewhere ahead of the 2027 season, and the Los Angeles Dodgers have emerged as the clear favorites to land the two-time Cy Young winner according to the latest prediction market odds.

Here's a look at the favorites to acquire Skubal and a closer look at the top contenders:

Los Angeles Dodgers

Anytime one of the best players in baseball is available on the open market, the Dodgers are somewhere nearby. Andrew Friedman has a history of making moves at the deadline and amassing star talent no matter the cost, and the Dodgers have the second-best farm system in baseball according to The Athletic's Keith Law. Los Angeles' rotation is already loaded, but Skubal is a generational ace who would undoubtedly move the needle for L.A.

Milwaukee Brewers

The Brewers feel like an unlikely match on paper, given the franchise's history of dealing away expiring arms rather than renting someone else's, and they already have a front-line ace in Jacob Misiorowski. Yet Milwaukee owns the third-best record in the NL with the deepest farm system in baseball, so adding Skubal could make a lot of sense right now.

Detroit Tigers

It speaks to how far apart these two sides are that Detroit, which already employs Skubal and holds a ton of leverage in the short term, is so far back in this race. There remains a scenario where ownership ponies up on a record-setting extension for Skubal, but all signs for the last year have pointed in the opposite direction. I'd be inclined to buy shares on "no" if you don't mind your money being held until Skubal changes teams.

New York Yankees

It wouldn't be trade season without the Yankees getting involved, as they always seem to do when high-priced stars are on the market. But would they move their top prospects, like Spencer Jones and Ben Hess, for what could amount to a rental? The Yankees can also throw money at Skubal in free agency without parting with any prospects, which makes them an intriguing bet here as a long shot but a risky one if Skubal is ultimately dealt to another contender by early August.

Atlanta Braves

The Braves weren't supposed to be this good this year, but Atlanta owns the best record in the NL entering June despite a rotation that has been thinned by injuries. Alex Anthopoulos has a limited farm system to work with but some young talent on the MLB roster that could entice Detroit to move its ace before the deadline.

San Diego Padres

Just four years ago, the Padres swung one of the biggest trades in MLB history when they landed Juan Soto from the Washington Nationals ... only to trade him to the Yankees 16 months later. That second deal only slightly helped replenish San Diego's farm system, which still ranks worst in MLB, though general manager A.J. Preller is notoriously aggressive in his pursuit of star talent and could break up the current roster to do so.

Chicago Cubs

The Cubs have been linked to Skubal, most notably by the New York Post's Jon Heyman, which tells me less about the likelihood of a deal but does seem to confirm their interest. Chicago's endured a rollercoaster season but remains in contention with young prospects to move and a glaring need for a centerpiece ace, so I wouldn't rule it out.

Tampa Bay Rays

This would be a major surprise at first blush, given Tampa Bay's difficulty retaining star players on expensive long-term deals, but a rental could be worth the swing for the Rays after their torrid start to the season. Skubal would anchor a patchwork rotation that, along with a slap-heavy lineup, has this team in real contention ahead of the deadline.

📋 When will Skubal return from injury?

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

The biggest roadblock to a potential Skubal trade this summer is health: he hasn't pitched since April 29 with an elbow injury that originally threatened to derail what should be a record-setting contract in his future.

The latest news, though, offers a positive outlook for the Tigers ace. He threw a simulated game on Monday with 64 pitches (45 strikes) across four innings, and manager A.J. Hinch said his velocity was normal ahead of a potential Triple-A rehab start this week. That could come as soon as Saturday with the Mud Hens.

Here's a look at the latest odds for when Skubal will return to the Tigers' rotation with his next MLB start expected sometime before July 1 - and possibly even sooner.

While you can technically buy shares on a return before June 8, the most optimistic traders are targeting a return date before June 15 - exactly two weeks after that simulated start on Monday. That features a roughly 33% chance at Kalshi, while a more realistic outcome has Skubal returning before June 22 with a 50% likelihood.

If Skubal is back before July, that would bode well for his chances of proving he's healthy enough for rival teams to expend real assets (and money) to acquire him by the deadline. And if he's not? Maybe the Tigers can retain their all-world ace, after all.