Astros vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Aug. 30

The Houston Astros and New York Mets are all knotted up at 1-1 and will play their series finale on Sunday afternoon. My Astros vs. Mets prediction targets a moneyline, a pair of player props, and an SGP. 

The Mets played a solid outing during a 6-2 win on Saturday. The Astros need to keep stacking wins to maintain a narrow lead in the A.L. West, so expect Houston to enter Sunday's interleague tilt with urgency. 

Ethan Pecko takes the mound for the Astros against the Mets' Zac Thornton. The first pitch will be thrown at 3:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.), airing on NBC and streaming on Peacock. The Mets are valued as marginal -119 home betting favorites. 

⚾ Astros vs. Mets picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 2.3 units | Max profit: 3.26 units

🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Mets?

We should see plenty of runs scored in today's game based on the starting pitchers. The Astros have scored at least 3 earned runs in 9 of their last 10 games. The Mets finally ended their offensive slump on Saturday, but Ethan Pecko has allowed eight hits in just two starts for the Astros. Houston winds up posting a 6-4 win in New York on Sunday. 

Score prediction: Astros 6, Mets 4

💰 Astros vs. Mets prediction & best bet

Astros Moneyline (+111)

The Astros are playing for a lot more than the Mets right now. With one month remaining in the regular season, New York is likely too far behind in the Wild Card race (11 GB) to make a legitimate run.

Houston has won nine of its last 10 games played as a road underdog following a loss. Thornton has surrendered 3 earned runs in three of his last five starts for the Mets, including seven hits in three consecutive outings. 

The Mets have been held to 2 or fewer earned runs in four of their last six games. The Astros hold value as an underdog in this spot.

Let's go to DraftKings to bet on the Astros moneyline at +111 odds. 

🔥 Best Astros vs. Mets player prop bet

Bo Bichette Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (+110)

After a red-hot streak, Bo Bichette has cooled off considerably at the plate for the Mets. New York's 3B has gone Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in five straight starts. 

Bichette ranks 19th in bat speed (69.9), 18th in walk rate (6.4), and 35th in barrel percentage (6.3) in 2026. He's facing Ethan Pecko, who has been a bit vulnerable in two starts, which is likely why Bichette is priced at plus odds to go under in this player prop market.

Let's take advantage of the pricing. Go to bet365 and place a wager on Bo Bichette Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at +110 odds. 

💣 Astros vs. Mets home run prediction

Juan Soto to hit a home run (+350)

There isn't a ton of metrics needed for Juan Soto. The eye test does enough. However, Soto is only playing his second game back from an injury, failing to go yard in his first game back on Saturday.

Here's a couple of ridiculous stats to capture Soto's hitting power. He's 100th percentile in xSGL (.586), 94th in avg exit velo (92.6), 91st percentile for barrel percentage (14.1) and 89th in hard-hit rate (48.6) in 2026. Simply put, Soto is a bonafide power hitter. 

Citi Field is known as a pitcher-friendly ballpark but Soto has plenty of tools in his arsenal to find the bleachers this afternoon. Stay on bet365 to take Juan Soto's home run prop at +350 odds. 

🚀 Astros vs. Mets same-game parlay

The Astros and Mets each scored a run in the first 5 innings on Saturday. Mediocre starting pitching today should cash the first leg of this SGP at plus odds. Then, it's an Extra Innings: No to boost this SGP from +125 to +144 odds on DraftKings. 

💵 My betting record for MLB picks

All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.

💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. Mets: MLB strategy

Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.

I'm placing four bets on today's Astros vs. Mets game. 3.3 units staked to win 4.7 units of profit. 

My first bet is on the Astros moneyline with a 1 unit play to win 1.11 units. Then, it's another 1 unit play on Bo Bichette to go Under 1.5 H+R+RBIs at +110 odds. 

A 0.30 unit bet on Juan Soto's home run prop nets just over 1 unit of profit. Then, a final 1 unit bet on a SGP featuring Both Teams To Score - F5/Extra Innings: No yields 1.44 units of profit. 

📊 Live Astros vs. Mets odds

Lines have moved from Mets -125 to Mets -119 in moneyline markets. The run total has climbed from 8.5 to 9.0

Public money is on the Mets at 62 percent of moneyline bets, while 68 percent of total bets are on Under 9.0 total runs. 

📈 Astros vs. Mets betting trends

🚑 Astros vs. Mets injuries

📺 How to watch Astros vs. Mets

• Date: Sunday, Aug. 30
• First pitch: 3:10 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
• TV: NBC
• Streaming: Peacock
• Astros starter: Ethan Pecko (0-0, 7.88 ERA)
• Mets starter: Zac Thornton (3-4, 2.88 ERA)