Astros vs. Mets Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Aug. 29
The Houston Astros' tour of the Empire State continues on Saturday afternoon with a matchup against the New York Mets. My Astros vs. Mets prediction features a total, two player props, and a two-leg SGP.
The Astros hold a two-game lead in the A.L. West in a tight race with the Rangers and Mariners. The Mets have dropped three straight games, sliding to 12 games out of the final N.L. Wild Card.
Bennett Sousa takes the mound for the Astros, while Nolan McLean draws the start for the Mets today. Catch the first pitch at 4:10 p.m. ET from Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.), streaming on MLB.TV. Despite their losing skid, the Mets are valued as a -144 betting favorite at home against the Astros.
⚾ Astros vs. Mets picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Under 8.0 (-105 via FanDuel) | 1.05u → 1u | Lasts 4 H2H matchups have gone under the run total line. |
| Christian Walker Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-163 via Sportsbook) | 3.26u → 2u | Walker is 4-1 for Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in his last 5 starts for the Astros. |
| Carson Benge Over 0.5 Home Runs (+625 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.56u | Benge has 2 home runs in last 8 starts, while ranked 74th percentile in xSLG (.448) in 2026. |
Total wagered: 4.56 units | Max profit: 4.56 units
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🏆 Who will win Astros vs. Mets?
2–3 sentences MAX. Give your prediction clearly and directly — name the winner, the margin, and the single biggest reason why. This section exists for Google’s featured snippet / People Also Ask box, so the answer needs to be clean and self-contained.
Score prediction: Mets 5, Astros 1
💰 Astros vs. Mets prediction & best bet
Under 8.0 (-105)
The Astros and Mets have cashed Under 8.0 in four straight games. Houston took Friday's game with a 3-1 win, and now they'll have to face one of the better pitchers on New York's roster, Nolan McLean.
McLean ranks in the 82nd percentile in strikeout rate (27.2) and the 77th in xBA (.218) in 2026. He's limited opposing lineups to 2 earned runs across his last three starts.
Sousa is making his first start for the Astros this season. However, the Mets' lineup has only delivered four total runs across its last three matchups.
Bet Under 8.0 on FanDuel at -105 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Offensive Woes for the Mets
The Mets' lineup has tallied just 8 earned runs across its last five games played.
🔥 Best Astros vs. Mets player prop bet
Christian Walker Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-163)
Christian Walker has been quiet in recent starts for the Astros. Houston's 1B smashed a home run at Yankee Stadium, including a 3-hit night, on Thursday. However, that's the only game in his last five starts where Walker has gone Over 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs.
McLean is a strong pitcher and won't give Walker much opportunity through his first two or three plate appearances. Walker is ranked 20th in whiff rate (29.8), 15th in xBA (.226) and 39th in xSLG (.383) in 2026.
Let's continue to fade hitters in a slump and lay juice on Walker's prop in this market. Go to DraftKings and bet on Christian Walker to finish Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -163 odds.
💣 Astros vs. Mets home run prediction
Carson Benge to hit a home run (+625)
Yes, Citi Field is not a hitter-friendly ballpark. The Mets have not recorded a home run in three straight games during their losing skid. It feels like Carson Benge is the player who can snap that today.
Benge ranks 74th in xSLG (.440), 91st in xBA (.281) and has tallied two home runs in his last eight starts for the Mets. It's looking like a bullpen game for the Astros, who have allowed 4.63 ERA, sixth-most in the MLB.
Let's sprinkle on Carson Benge to go yard and hit a home run at +625 odds on bet365.
🚀 Astros vs. Mets same-game parlay
These teams have not put together many home runs lately. The Mets haven't logged a home run in three straight starts, while the Astros have only one during their recent three-game stretch. Extra Innings have happened only once for both teams in their last 10 combined matchups.
💵 Astros vs. Mets SGP picks
- Under 2.5 Home Runs (-150)
- Extra Innings: No (-1200)
Best odds: -124 via DraftKings (1.24u -> 1u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 59-113-4 | -13.61 units ❌ | -8.7% ❌ |
| Game picks | 20-20-3 | -0.58 units ❌ | -1.53% ❌ |
| Player props | 23-68-1 | -7.60 units ❌ | -10.31% ❌ |
| Parlays | 16-25 | -7.16 units ❌ | -17.2% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Astros vs. Mets: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm staking a total of 5.75 units to win 5.56 units of profit on today's Astros vs. Mets game. A 1.05 unit wager on Under 8.0 nets 1 unit of profit.
Then, my biggest play is a 3.26 unit bet on Christian Walker Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs to collect 2 units of profit. A 0.25 unit bet on Carson Benge's Home Run prop at +625 odds nets over 1.5 units of profit.
Finally, my SGP comes out to -124 odds, so I'm staking 1.24 units to win 1 unit on Under 2.5 Home Runs/Extra Innings: No.
📊 Live Astros vs. Mets odds
Since opening, the Mets have moved down from -143 to -140 in moneyline betting markets. The run total has stayed flat at 8.0.
Public action has 65 percent of moneyline bets on the Mets, although 64 percent of run line bets are on the Astros +1.5. The run total money is split at 51-49, with 51 percent leaning Under 8.0.
📈 Astros vs. Mets betting trends
| Astros | Statistic | Mets |
|---|---|---|
| 68-67 | W-L record | 60-75 |
| 68-67 | Run line record | 63-72 |
| 70-58-7 | O/U record | 59-66-10 |
| 5-5 | Last 10 games | 4-6 |
| 4.63 | Team ERA | 4.10 |
| .242 | Team batting avg. | .236 |
| .729 | OPS | .695 |
🚑 Astros vs. Mets injuries
📺 How to watch Astros vs. Mets
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 29
- First pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Citi Field (Queens, N.Y.)
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Astros starter: Bennett Sousa (1-4, 6.47 ERA)
- Mets starter: Nolan McLean (9-8, 3.21 ERA)
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