Rangers vs. Brewers Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Aug. 29

The Texas Rangers desperately need a win to bolster their chances of winning the AL West, while the Milwaukee Brewers look to improve upon MLB’s best record. My Rangers vs. Brewers prediction backs the Under in a game with two quietly hot starting pitchers of late (Cal Quantrill vs. Shane Drohan). That means I’m selling high on Corey Seager’s chances of cashing the Over on his projected total bases prop, while adding a home run play on a hot Brewers slugger with the last of my MLB picks for good measure.

First pitch from American Family Field in Milwaukee is scheduled for 7:15 p.m. ET. The Brewers are -170 betting favorites.

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🏆 Who will win Rangers vs. Brewers?

Cal Quantrill has arguably been MLB’s best pitcher since the All-Star Break, but I’m backing a Milwaukee squad who owns the best winning percentage against teams .500 or better since the start of the 2023 season.

Score prediction: Brewers 4, Rangers 2

💰 Rangers vs. Brewers prediction & best bet

Under 8 (-110)

Jacob deGrom? No, Cal Quantrill has been Texas’ best pitcher since the All-Star Break. The righty has an MLB-best 1.35 second-half ERA, and he’s on a heater with one run allowed over his last four appearances. 

Quantrill has done an outstanding job of keeping traffic off the basepaths with a 0.74 WHIP in that 19-inning stretch, and looks for a third consecutive scoreless outing

Shane Drohan should match zeros, as the Brewers as a whole were 9-4 in their last 13 games entering this series, while the starting rotation pitched to an ERA just north of 3.00.

🔥 Best Rangers vs. Brewers player prop bet

Corey Seager Under 1.5 total bases (-170)

Corey Seager has come a long way since his first 51 games of the season when he slashed .182/.292/.374 with a 26.9% strikeout rate and logged 10 multi-hit games. Over his next 21 games (with time spent on the IL with lower back inflammation), he slashed .355/.424/.553 while striking out 16.5% of the time and also recording 10 multi-hit games. 

Seager entered this series batting .318 with nine extra-base hits in 23 games since coming off the IL. But Shane Drohan should limit Seager from a power perspective, as the righty hasn’t allowed a home run to left-handed batters this season. Lefties have an OPS 116 points lower against Drohan than righties, and I expect positive regression from Drohan’s .309 OBA through four August appearances (three starts).

💣 Rangers vs. Brewers home run prediction

Jackson Chourio to hit a home run (+500)

Chourio completed his eighth career game with a home run and a stolen base in Thursday’s series finale against the Mets. It was also his seventh four-hit game, setting a franchise record for most by a player age 22 or younger. After that multi-home run performance, he is one home run and six stolen bases shy of a third straight 20/20 season. 

Quantrill hasn’t allowed a home run in 19 innings, and faces a Brewers lineup that has hit the fewest home runs in the league. But Quantrill’s xERA is nearly a full run higher than his actual ERA, and he is due some regression from a home run perspective with a ground ball rate that ranks in just the 34th percentile.

🚀 Rangers vs. Brewers same-game parlay

If I was expecting the Under to cash, one would assume I would all player props that back Unders as well. However, certain props relating to the starting pitchers are not able to be combined in a SGP since they are deemed too similar to a play on the full-game Under. So while Seager’s Under of total bases pairs nicely with the thought of a low-scoring game, there are plenty of ways to still cash this three-leg parlay if Chourio produces a base hit for the ninth time in the last 11 games.

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Even though Cal Quantrill is amid one of the hottest stretches of his career, my expectations were tempered that the Rangers could pull the upset given the soft schedule the righty has faced of late. In August alone, Quantrill faced five teams that were in fourth place or worse in their division. Despite that, the team still went just 3-2 in that stretch, while the Rangers are 2-4 in Quantrill’s last six starts against division leaders.

So instead of backing Milwaukee’s moneyline or runline odds given these trends, I found better value with the Under which may be overlooked with Drohan toeing the rubber.

📊 Live Rangers vs. Brewers odds

There is a big 16-cent gap between Milwaukee's shortest -159 moneyline odds (61.39% implied probability) and its -175 odds at the high end of the market at DraftKings. The Brewers had attracted 61% of the wagers as of early Friday morning.

The total is split between 7.5 and 8 at the top sports betting sites, with movement in both directions (some top MLB betting sites that opened at 7.5 went to 8 and vice versa). The betting splits are nearly even with 55% of the wagers supporting the Over.

📈 Rangers vs. Brewers betting trends

🚑 Rangers vs. Brewers injuries

📺 How to watch Rangers vs. Brewers

• Date: Saturday, August 29
• First pitch: 7:15 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: American Family Field (Milwaukee, Wis.)
• TV: FOX
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Rangers starter: Cal Quantrill (6-4, 2.90 ERA)
• Brewers starter: Shane Drohan (6-5, 3.84 ERA)