MLB Best Home Run Predictions Today: Best HR Props, Picks, Parlay & Odds For Sunday, Aug. 30
Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs has been lit up at Sutter Health Park this season, and specifically by right-handed batters, which is why Pete Alonso is a focal point of my best home run predictions today.
Along with Alonso, two of my other MLB home run picks back players who have gone deep off of today’s starting pitchers in their careers (Julio Rodriguez and Yandy Diaz). I also fade a struggling Rockies pitching staff with a fourth wager on a Braves slugger.
⚾ Home run predictions today: MLB HR picks & odds Aug. 30
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds.
| 💣 Home run pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Drake Baldwin to hit a home run (+432 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.08u | Rockies pitchers have allowed the highest slugging percentage in the Majors in road games |
| Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+475 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.19u | Rodriguez is 2-for-7 with a home run against Max Scherzer |
| Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+514 via DraftKings) | 0.25u → 1.29u | Diaz moved into fifth all-time in Rays franchise history in home runs |
| Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+255 via FanDuel) | 0.25u → 0.64u | Springs has allowed a 2.57 HR/9 rate in home starts |
Total wagered: 1 unit | Max profit: 4.2 units
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💣 Best home run predictions & odds today
Home run pick: Drake Baldwin (+432)
The Rockies pitching staff has allowed the fourth-most home runs this season, and that has me backing one of Atlanta’s top bats even if this game is not at Coors Field. After all, Colorado still entered the weekend with the sixth-most homers allowed in road games.
Mason Adams makes his second career start, but early returns suggest left-handed batters have an advantage over him (1.214 OPS allowed in that split). That raises Drake Baldwin’s ceiling, as 15 of his 22 home runs have come against righties, with an OPS 152 points higher than against southpaws.
- Time: 1:35 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
📡 SBR Edge: Not just a Coors problem
Colorado's pitching numbers are inflated playing home games at Coors Field, but it also allows the league's highest slugging percentage in road games.
🔥 More home run predictions today
Home run pick: Julio Rodriguez (+475)
Julio Rodriguez has been a much better hitter in the second half of the season for his entire career, especially in the power department. After the All-Star Break, his slugging percentage and OPS are 106 and 125 points higher, respectively, than his numbers from the first half. He looks to add to those numbers against a pitcher who has had trouble keeping the ball in the yard late in his career.
Max Scherzer’s HR/9 rate is on pace to rise for the third straight season, with this year’s rate of 2.2 being by far his worst. That makes him due for regression after not allowing a homer in three consecutive home starts.
- Time: 1:37 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Yandy Diaz (+514)
Yandy Diaz hit his 119th career home run with the Rays in Friday’s series opener, and passed B.J. Upton for the fifth-most in Rays history in the process. He now faces a familiar foe in Padres southpaw Robbie Ray, against whom he has slashed .333/.407/.750, with six of his eight hits going for extra bases (including two home runs). Thus, Diaz has a great chance to improve his incredible 1.016 OPS in home games.
I’m opting to back Diaz over teammate Cedric Mullins, who also homered on Friday, and who also has two career homers against Ray.
- Time: 4:10 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
Home run pick: Pete Alonso (+255)
Pete Alonso hasn’t homered in three games. It’s a testament to how hot he has been at the plate to learn that he hasn’t gone longer than that without a long ball since Aug. 8. He now faces Athletics southpaw Jeffrey Springs, who has been one of the worst pitchers in home starts.
Springs has pitched to a 6.71 ERA, .291 OBA, and a troubling 2.57 HR/9 rate in 13 starts at Sutter Health Park. His numbers won’t improve unless he improves a 21st percentile barrel rate, while his eighth percentile ground ball rate is a dangerous way to make a living in a hitter-friendly ballpark.
- Time: 10:05 p.m. ET
- Where to watch: MLB.TV
🚀 Best home run parlay picks today
💵 Best MLB home run parlay today
- Drake Baldwin to hit a home run (+432)
- Julio Rodriguez to hit a home run (+448)
- Yandy Diaz to hit a home run (+514)
- Pete Alonso to hit a home run (+254)
Best odds: +63267 via DraftKings (0.1u -> 63.3u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since March 26.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 251-409-2 | +50.40 units ✅ | +12.3% ✅ |
| Player props | 153-336 | +32.15 units ✅ | +13.6% ✅ |
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