Red Sox vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Saturday, Aug. 29
The first of a two-game doubleheader in MLB's biggest rivalry takes place when the Boston Red Sox face the New York Yankees on Saturday afternoon. My Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction includes a moneyline, a pair of player props, and an SGP.
Both A.L. East foes are currently sitting in Wild Card spots. The Yankees are coming off a gritty 1-0 win to open this series on Friday night.
We'll see Jake Bennett toeing the rubber for the Red Sox and Carlos Rodon suiting up for the Yankees in this first matchup. Catch the first pitch at 1:05 p.m. ET on MLB Network and streaming on MLB.TV from Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.). The Yankees enter as a marginal -118 home betting favorite.
⚾ Red Sox vs. Yankees picks & odds today
See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;
| ⚾ Pick | 💵 Units | 📝 Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Yankees moneyline (-118 via DraftKings) | 1.18u → 1u | Carlos Rodon has allowed 4 total hits and 2 earned runs in 2 starts since returning from injury. |
| Jahmai Jones Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-168 via DraftKings) | 4u → 2.3u | Jones has gone 3 straight games without a hit and is 4-1 for U 1.5 H+R+RBIs in his last 5 starts for the Red Sox. |
| Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Home Runs (+600 via bet365) | 0.25u → 1.5u | Grisham draws a left-handed matchup against Bennett and ranks 80th percentile in hard-hit rate (46.2) in 2026. |
Total wagered: 5.43 units | Max profit: 4.8 units
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🏆 Who will win Red Sox vs. Yankees?
I expect a much higher-scoring affair, primarily from the Yankees lineup, which has been struggling without all of its stars. However, Cody Bellinger is back, while Jake Bennett has allowed at least 3 earned runs in five straight starts for the Red Sox. The Yankees log a 6-3 win this afternoon to go up 2-0 in this A.L. East rivalry series.
Score prediction: Yankees 6, Red Sox 3
💰 Red Sox vs. Yankees prediction & best bet
Yankees moneyline (-118)
The pitching edge in this game goes to Carlos Rodon. He's been nails since returning to the mound for the Yankees, ranked in the 70th percentile for xBA (.222) across all of his 11 starts in 2026.
Jake Bennett does not punch out a ton of batters. He's ranked 27th in strikeout percentage (19.0) and 43rd percentile for chase rate (37.0) this season.
The Yankees lineup can go cold, but Boston's lineup is equally volatile, getting shut out in two straight games.
Bet on the Yankees to win, with DraftKings offering the best line at -118 odds.
📡 SBR Edge: Fade the Red Sox in the Day
The Red Sox have surrendered at least 4 runs in six of their last seven games played during the day.
🔥 Best Red Sox vs. Yankees player prop bet
Jahmai Jones Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs (-168)
We're going to fade the Red Sox lead-off hitter, Jahmai Jones, for my best player prop bet. Jones is struggling at the plate right now, logging three straight starts without a hit.
Rodon isn't going to be easy for Jones to bust his slump. He's cashed Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs in four of his last five starts for the Red Sox.
Rodon sits 70th percentile in whiff rate (27.8) and strikeout rate (25.4) this season. He's also in the 63rd percentile or higher in hard-hit percentage (36.7) and barrel rate (6.5), so Rodon does a solid job of limiting contact.
Jones is worth fading, even at a juicy price of Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -168 odds on DraftKings.
💣 Red Sox vs. Yankees home run prediction
Trent Grisham to hit a home run (+600)
Since Aaron Judge departed from the Yankees lineup due to injury, Trent Grisham has stepped up as one of their marquee sluggers. He's had one home run in his last five games.
Now, Grisham faces a left-handed pitcher as a left-handed batter, while playing in a hitter-friendly ballpark. It's an ideal matchup, especially with Grisham ranked 80th in hard-hit percentage (46.2) and 77th in avg exit velo (90.7) in 2026.
Go to bet365 to get +600 odds on Trent Grisham's home run prop in today's first game of a doubleheader against the Red Sox.
🚀 Red Sox vs. Yankees same-game parlay
The NRFI has won in three of the Red Sox's last five games, while going 4-1 across the Yankees' previous five matchups. Neither team has gone to Extra Innings during this recent five-game stretch.
💵 Red Sox vs. Yankees SGP picks
- NRFI (-115)
- Extra Innings: No (-1099)
Best odds: +104 via bet365 (1u -> 1.04u)
💵 My betting record for MLB picks
All MLB picks, including SGPs, have been tracked since May 31.
| Bet type | Record | Net profit | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | 59-113-4 | -13.61 units ❌ | -8.7% ❌ |
| Game picks | 20-20-3 | -0.58 units ❌ | -1.53% ❌ |
| Player props | 23-68-1 | -7.60 units ❌ | -10.31% ❌ |
| Parlays | 16-25 | -7.16 units ❌ | -17.2% ❌ |
💡 How I'm betting Red Sox vs. Yankees: MLB strategy
Follow all of our MLB analysis and expert predictions for baseball season.
I'm staking a total of 6.43 units on four bets in today's first game between the Red Sox and Yankees. This would collect 5.84 units of profit with a 4-0 result.
I'm only dropping 1.18 units to win 1 unit on the Yankees moneyline. However, the big play is on Red Sox DH Jahmai Jones to finish Under 1.5 Hits+Runs+RBIs at -168 odds. A 4 unit wager returns 2.3 units of profit.
Scaling down to a 0.25 unit play on Trent Grisham's home run prop at +600 odds to win 1.5 units of profit. Then, 1 unit on a NRFI/Extra Innings: No SGP to win 1.04 units.
📊 Live Red Sox vs. Yankees odds
The Yankees have dropped from -143 to -118 betting favorites since lines were released for this game a few hours ago. The run total continues to bounce between 8.0 and 8.5.
57 percent of public money is on the Yankees moneyline, with 68 percent on the Red Sox +1.5 run line. 58 percent of total bets are on Under 8.0.
📈 Red Sox vs. Yankees betting trends
| Red Sox | Statistic | Yankees |
|---|---|---|
| 73-61 | W-L record | 76-58 |
| 66-68 | Run line record | 69-65 |
| 62-68-4 | O/U record | 55-74-5 |
| 7-3 | Last 10 games | 7-3 |
| 3.22 | Team ERA | 3.46 |
| .250 | Team batting avg. | .231 |
| .729 | OPS | .718 |
🚑 Red Sox vs. Yankees injuries
📺 How to watch Red Sox vs. Yankees
- Date: Saturday, Aug. 29
- First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
- Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
- TV: MLB Network
- Streaming: MLB.TV
- Red Sox starter: Jake Bennett (8-6, 3.49 ERA)
- Yankees starter: Carlos Rodon (4-2, 3.15 ERA)
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