Orioles vs. Yankees Prediction & Picks: MLB Odds for Sunday, Sept. 27

In Sunday's regular-season finale, Orioles' starter Shane Baz will take on Elmer Rodriguez. Both pitchers have allowed at least three earned runs in their last three appearances.

My best Orioles vs. Yankees prediction focuses on the fact that this game means absolutely nothing for the playoff-bound Yankees. My top MLB picks for Sunday's 1:05 p.m. ET game at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx, N.Y., also include a player prop and a home run bet. The Yankees are -130 favorites. The game will air locally and stream on MLB.TV.

⚾ Orioles vs. Yankees picks & odds today

See all of our experts’ MLB picks based on the latest MLB odds;

Total wagered: 4.25 units | Max profit: 6.5 units

🏆 Who will win Orioles vs. Yankees?

I'm taking the Orioles to win this one 7-4. The Yankees have nothing to play for, aso no matter how out of hand things get, I don't expect any key relief pitchers to be used. 

Score prediction: Orioles 7 Yankees 4

💰 Orioles vs. Yankees prediction & best bet

Orioles ML (+115)

The Orioles enter Sunday's game as the 13th-highest-scoring team in the league, and when they start scoring against Rodriguez, the Yankees aren't going to do much to stop the bleeding. In his most recent start, Rodriguez allowed four earned runs in 3.2 innings against the league's second-lowest-scoring team.

The Yankees have scored eight runs in 12.0 innings against Baz this season. However, if Baz gets in trouble, the Orioles will turn to their bullpen, while the Yankees won't be turning to any key pitchers, as they rest for a potential World Series run.

🔥 Best Orioles vs. Yankees player prop bet

Pete Alonso Over 1.5 total bases (+125)

Alonso has seven hits in his last five games, reaching base safely in four of those five contests. He's also hit five home runs during that span, so he can easily reach this total with one swing.

There are two other reasons to love Alonso today. First, he is hitting .409 with four home runs at Yankee Stadium this season. And second, Rodriguez's control issues have led to 16 walks in 26.2 innings. This should mean favorable counts for Alonso, who is hitting .481 when the count is 2-1 and .455 when the count is 3-1 this season.

💣 Orioles vs. Yankees home run prediction

Cody Bellinger to hit a home run (+680)

In his career, Bellinger is 2-for-4 with a home run against Baz. While Bellinger has gone hitless in three consecutive games, he has hit five home runs this month.

Baz hasn't been an easy pitcher to hit home runs off of, but 11 of the 15 that he has allowed this season are to left-handed hitters. In fact, lefties have a .278/.348/.785 slash line against him. Baz has allowed four home runs in his last three starts, and he allowed one in his only appearance at Yankee Stadium this season.

📊 Live Orioles vs. Yankees odds

The Yankees are seeing 65% of the handle right now, but the moneyline price has dropped from -141 to around -130 at most major sportsbooks. I expect this line to keep dropping, as oddsmakers are clearly aware that this won't be a full-strength Yankee team. As for the total, the Over is being overwhelmingly supported, but the number is still at 7.5 at most major sportsbooks.

📈 Orioles vs. Yankees betting trends

🚑 Orioles vs. Yankees injuries

📺 How to watch Orioles vs. Yankees

• Date: Sunday, Sept. 27
• First pitch: 1:05 p.m. ET
• Ballpark: Yankee Stadium (Bronx, N.Y.)
• TV: Local
• Streaming: MLB.TV
• Orioles starter: Shane Baz (6-15, 4.11 ERA)
• Yankees starter: Elmer Rodriguez (0-3, 5.40 ERA)