Mets vs. Brewers MLB Picks, Predictions: Can Mad Max Slow Down Milwaukee?
The Milwaukee Brewers haven’t lost a series since September 7. Can Max Scherzer get the New York Mets off to a winning start against Milwaukee on Monday? Read on for our Mets-Brewers MLB picks.
Two former Cy Young Award winners square off in Milwaukee on Monday. The Mets cling to a narrow lead in the NL East, as the Brewers look to stay within shouting distance of the St. Louis Cardinals in the Central.
Here are my MLB picks and predictions for Monday’s game between the Mets and Brewers (odds via DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook; pick confidence based on a 1-to-5-star scale).
Mets vs. Brewers Game Info
Date: Monday, Sept. 19, 7:40 p.m. ET
TV: SportsNet NY
Location: American Family Field, Milwaukee, WI
Weather: Indoors
Mets vs. Brewers Odds Analysis
The favorite has flipped to the home team since the opening line of Mets -110. The Brewers are -115 at DraftKings and -110 at FanDuel. The Mets, however, have seen 71% of the cash wagered on the moneyline.
The public expects this pitchers’ duel to play out as such, as the total has fallen from 7 to 6.5 at most major sportsbooks. Ninety-two percent of the money wagered on the total has been on the Under.
Mets vs. Brewers Projected Pitchers
Max Scherzer (9-4, 2.26 ERA, 0.924 WHIP) vs. Corbin Burnes (10-7, 2.97 ERA, 0.983 WHIP)
Scherzer’s 2.26 ERA is lower than any qualifying NL starter this season. Outside of Christian Yelich and Victor Caratini, no active Brewers hitter sports a career OPS north of .625 against Scherzer.
Burnes ranks seventh among NL starters in ERA this season, but has struggled since the All-Star break. Even with an elevated run total of late, Burnes' .198 opposing batting average ranks third in the National League for 2022.
Mets vs. Brewers Picks
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Mets vs. Brewers ML Pick
Mets ML (-104) ★★★★
Though Milwaukee’s home winning percentage (.594) ranks eighth in MLB this season, New York's road mark is even better. The Mets' .597 winning percentage is third-best in MLB. As a moneyline road underdog, the Mets are 14-13 outright for the second-best win rate in MLB behind the San Diego Padres (19-16).
Burnes tossed six innings of two-run baseball in his lone start against the Mets in June. He hasn’t been as effective since the All-Star break, however, posting a 4.41 ERA across 11 starts since mid-July. The Mets boast a .755 OPS against right-handed pitching this season, 50 points better than their collective .705 OPS against lefties.
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Mets vs. Brewers O/U Pick
Over 6.5 (-115) ★★★
American Family Field has played as the seventh-most favorable home run environment in MLB this season. Due in part to an elevated home run rate at home, Burnes actually has an ERA of 3.10 in Milwaukee as opposed to a 2.83 ERA away from it this year.
Given Burnes's recent trends, I could see the Mets scratching off a few runs against him. Neither bullpen in this matchup is considered elite, ranking closer to the middle-of-the-pack in ERA and batting average against.
At 53.2% this season, the Mets have played to the highest Over rate in MLB. The Brewers rank fourth in the league with a 52.2% Over rate. It wouldn’t take much in such a prominent home run park to see this total land true, so we’re fading the public on this one.
Mets vs. Brewers Prop Bet
Burnes Under 6.5 strikeouts (-108) ★★★★
At his best, Burnes is one of MLB’s nastiest strikeout artists, boasting the second-best K/9 among NL starters this season. As mentioned above, though, Burnes hasn’t consistently been in that place of late.
He's cleared this line just once over his last seven starts, a 14-strikeout performance on September 8. Outside of that vintage effort, he’s had a 7.7 K/9 rate since August 13, a far cry from his typical whiff numbers. He faces a Mets lineup that strikes out just 7.51 times per game, the fourth-lowest rate in MLB this season.
Where to Bet on Mets-Brewers Picks
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Mets-Brewers picks made 9/19/2022 at 2 p.m. ET.
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